At 2:00 PM, the Fed is expected to hold rates. What matters is the dot plot and how Powell explains it. This is the first set of Fed projections that has to deal directly with a closed Strait of Hormuz, 15% global tariffs, and roughly 10 million barrels a day knocked out of supply. In December, the Fed penciled in one cut for 2026. This morning the question is whether Powell still sounds comfortable with that.
Crude climbed back and equities closed higher anyway. Airlines beat the bear case, AI infrastructure kept expanding, and the Fed's inbox got a lot more complicated.
Oil settled at $93.50 yesterday and was back at $97 before dawn. The Federal Reserve opens its two-day meeting with crude up 50% since January, Q4 GDP at 0.7%, and core PCE at 3.1%. Those three numbers together have a name. The dot plot lands tomorrow at 2:00 PM ET.
Oil stepped back from the panic zone and equities grabbed every point they could. Nvidia ran, Dollar Tree beat the low bar, and private credit stayed out of the way.
The US struck 90 military targets on Kharg Island Friday night. The oil terminals were left standing. That choice is leverage. The market enters this week priced between two outcomes neither side can control.
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Last week showed where the pressure lands first. Energy markets tightened, airlines cracked, fertilizer rallied, and private credit started showing stress. The week ahead answers a different question. Does that pressure start showing up in economic data and corporate guidance, or does the economy keep moving around it?
The headlines moved fast last week. Oil spiked, collapsed, and climbed again. Governments released reserves. Earnings landed. Credit cracks appeared. Through all that noise the market kept circling the same question: which parts of the economy can keep operating if fuel, financing, and shipping all get harder at the same time?
Stocks tried to stabilize after inflation data came in close to expectations. Every time crude pushed higher, the tape rolled back over. The market stopped debating the shock this week. Now it's just following the damage.
January PCE lands this morning, the Fed's last inflation read before Tuesday's FOMC decision. Brent closed above $100 for the first time since August 2022 after Iran's new supreme leader declared the Strait stays shut. The IEA's record 400-million-barrel release was absorbed in a single session. Four private credit funds have gated in four weeks. Today's PCE number was routine three weeks ago. Now it answers one question: does the Fed have any room left.
The tape didn't trade one story today. It traded a chain reaction. Oil broke $100, fertilizer stocks ripped, private credit cracked again, and the AI trade kept splitting winners from losers.
The IEA launched the largest emergency reserve release in its history on Wednesday. By Thursday morning, Brent was back above $100. When the biggest policy backstop in history fails to hold for 18 hours, the market is making a structural statement.
The market looked straight past inflation. AI spending got its credibility back, consumer companies started chasing discounts, and energy volatility kept hanging over everything.
Oracle beat on every line, raised FY27 revenue to $90 billion, and jumped 9% after hours. But this morning, Oracle is noise. February CPI drops at 8:30, and the IEA votes on the largest emergency oil release in history. Two signals, one session, both calibrated to a world that no longer exists.
Capital rotated quickly into infrastructure, housing-linked names, and AI buildouts while travel and energy leadership faded. The rally was real. The conviction, however, was selective.
Trump called the Iran war "very complete, pretty much." WTI dropped $33 in a single session. Iran's Revolutionary Guard called it nonsense before midnight. Both claims are still in the market this morning.
By midday the macro panic cooled. The more important signal appeared underneath. The tape began sorting companies into clear buckets. That sorting mattered far more than the index rebound.
WTI crude broke $100 overnight. Oil is up 14%. Gold is down $56. Bonds are selling off. Every traditional safe-haven is failing at once, and the Nikkei just closed -5.20%. The Iran war is a stagflation shock, not a flight-to-safety story. That difference matters for every hedge you are running this morning.
Oil, inflation, and the labor market now collide in the same week. The market spent the past five days sorting winners and losers. The next five will test whether those trades deepen or unwind.
Last week did not trade on headlines alone. It traded on what the market decided was real, what it decided was temporary, and which businesses could still make money while oil, shipping, and rates all got harder at the same time.
The economy lost jobs. Oil had its biggest weekly surge ever. The bond market barely moved. By the close the market wasn’t trading headlines anymore. It was trading pressure building across the system.
Iraq has already begun shutting production. JPMorgan said it would happen by day eight. Today is day seven. February NFP drops at 8:30 this morning, with consensus at 60,000 and Bank of America at 35,000. The market now has to process a potentially weak jobs number while oil is exploding.
Hormuz traffic stalled. Oil jumped again. Yields climbed for a fourth day. By the close the market stopped asking if the shock matters and started asking how long it lasts.
The Senate refused to stop the war. Iran won't negotiate. The 15% tariff takes effect this week. Markets added 0.78% Wednesday anyway.
