The March dot plot signaled one cut in 2026. Today's update may signal one hike. Warsh's debut press conference begins with a chart that may have flipped direction before he says a word.
SpaceX passed Amazon and bought AI coding startup Cursor for $60 billion. Industrials hit all-time highs while chips fell. Eighty percent of fund managers call semis the most crowded trade in survey history.
The Nikkei hit a record overnight. The Bank of Japan crossed a 31-year threshold. Warsh's first dot plot drops in 30 hours.
SpaceX raised $85.7 billion after its green shoe and rose another 13% today. Europe erased every wartime stock loss. Prediction markets give Hormuz only a 57% chance of normalizing by August.
The US and Iran agreed to end a war that lasted more than three months. Oil fell to its lowest level since February. Now Kevin Warsh walks into his first Fed meeting Wednesday with a different set of numbers. The question is whether he says so out loud.
Institutional tools, refinement, and analysis for traders who refuse to stay reactive. Transcripts, filings, insider clusters, and options flow, distilled into a single weekly signal map.This is what it looks like to treat your portfolio like a responsibility, not a hobby.
Warsh Sets the Price | Iran Deal Weekend | The Cost of Capital Week
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Oil dropped. Citi upgraded AMD and named a bigger customer than expected. European travel stocks had their best day in months. SpaceX made Musk a trillionaire and Tesla fell anyway.
Trump called off strikes and said an Iran deal is in "final shape." The market surged 930 points. Oil fell to its lowest level since April. SpaceX starts trading today at a $1.77 trillion valuation. And wholesale inflation hit its highest annual rate since late 2022 on the same morning nobody noticed.
Trump named Kharg Island, handling 90% of Iran's crude exports. PPI beat estimates again. Retail sold chips for two days straight. SpaceX priced at $135 tonight.
Oracle crushed every revenue line and the stock fell sharply after hours. The cost: $70 billion in planned capex next year and another $40 billion fundraise. The ECB is expected to hike for the first time since 2023. PPI drops at 8:30.
May CPI came in at 4.2%, exactly as expected. Core was softer. The Fed got nothing useful. Trump threatened Iran and WTI bounced back. Amazon entered trucking. SoftBank's OpenAI loan hit a wall. SpaceX lost $300 billion in pre-IPO futures.
The Energy Secretary said Hormuz traffic was rising meaningfully. Eight hours later, CENTCOM struck Iranian air defenses near Bandar Abbas. Oil is bouncing this morning. May CPI drops at 8:30 with the war premium reshuffled overnight.
The Energy Secretary said Hormuz traffic is rising meaningfully. WTI fell 5% to $86. Chips erased Monday's entire bounce. OpenAI filed confidentially for an IPO. SpaceX prices Thursday. The market is cannibalizing itself to fund it.
Apple unveiled Siri AI powered by Google's Gemini. Tim Cook took his final keynote bow. The stock fell nearly two percent. At 34 times forward earnings, the market wanted a leap. It got a catch-up.
Iran ended military operations against Israel. WTI pulled back. Apple opened its developer conference at 34 times forward earnings. The market decided Friday was a flush.
Samsung and SK Hynix crashed at the open in Seoul. The KOSPI triggered a circuit breaker for only the ninth time in its history. Friday's chip selloff crossed the Pacific overnight.
CPI Decides Again | SpaceX Lists Friday | Warsh Gets His Last Data Before June 16
The Bar Moved | The Streak Snapped | Six Things That Actually Drove Markets
May payrolls came in. Rate hike odds jumped. The Nasdaq dropped 3%. Nine straight winning weeks ended on one number.
Broadcom grew AI chip revenue sharply and lost more than a tenth of its value. The money left chips and went straight into UnitedHealth and Goldman Sachs. Now Nonfarm Payrolls arrives to decide whether that rotation was a one-day event or a lasting shift.
Banks and healthcare led while chips fell. Broadcom lost billions on a beat. Jobless claims hit a four-month high.
Broadcom grew AI revenue by triple digits, beat on earnings, and raised guidance. Then CEO Hock Tan said the company is shifting to "chips only." The stock dropped sharply after hours. CrowdStrike posted record ARR and announced a stock split. Same result. Two AI winners punished for the same crime: not being perfect enough.
