The S&P drifted to a fresh intraday record. The Nasdaq did the same. WTI rose to above $97 after Iran's foreign minister flew to Moscow instead of Islamabad.

Iran sent a new proposal through Pakistani mediators. The White House held a Situation Room meeting. The White House has not responded. In prior rounds, silence within twelve hours has meant rejection. The market is treating the absence of a response as neutral. History says it is not.

Goldman Sachs (GS) and Citigroup (C) both raised their oil forecasts on the same day. The market is at record highs pricing a short war. Two of the largest bank trading desks just priced a longer one.

Goldman and Citi extending disruption timelines to June changes the inflation math for Q2. If the timeline holds: rate-sensitive names lose the Fed cover they rebuilt last week, consumer discretionary names face a second quarter of margin compression, and energy stays bid. If talks accelerate before Friday: futures reprice down, the relief trade returns, and the rate cut window reopens. The Fed meets Wednesday between those two outcomes. What Powell says lands with Goldman and Citi both saying the war runs longer than the market assumed.

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Goldman Sachs (GS) raised its WTI forecast to $83 for Q4, up from $75. The bank flagged unusually high refined product prices, shortage risks, and a disruption scale it called unprecedented. Gulf exports don't normalize until the end of June in its base case.

Citigroup (C) separately raised its Q2 forecast and pushed its Strait reopening estimate to end of May. It added a scenario where flows stay disrupted through June, in which case prices stay much higher through the quarter. The bank also noted that even after Hormuz reopens, rebuilding oil inventories globally keeps prices elevated for years, not months.

Both banks moved on the same day. That is not a coincidence. It is Wall Street's commodities research catching up to what the physical oil market has been pricing for weeks.

This runs directly into Wednesday's Fed meeting. If Gulf exports stay disrupted through June, the June CPI print reflects another month of elevated energy costs. That is the exact scenario the Fed's March minutes warned could require rate hikes. 

Goldman's Q4 forecast is above where futures are currently priced. If the timeline holds, futures reprice up and rate cut expectations reprice down simultaneously. Own US domestic producers not exposed to Hormuz. Reduce duration.

Domino's Pizza (DPZ) fell after cutting its US same-store sales growth forecast from what analysts expected to less than half that. Sales slowed particularly in March. The CEO said US consumer sentiment has fallen to levels last seen during COVID, with lower-income shoppers pulling back sharply.

This is not a pizza story. It is the first major consumer brand to confirm demand destruction specifically in the lower-income segment, the first group to pull back when energy costs rise.

Michigan sentiment on Friday was the worst in survey history. AmEx (AXP) card data showed airline spending decelerating and refunds spiking. P&G's (PG) CFO called the consumer muted.

The people buying delivery pizza at lower price points are the same people paying nearly $60 more per month for gas. When that group pulls back from a $15 pizza order, the demand destruction United's CEO called Econ 101 is no longer theoretical.

Lower-income discretionary spending is the first category where the oil-to-demand transmission shows up in real sales data. Companies with pricing power at the premium end are more insulated. High-frequency, value-driven consumer names are not. Reduce exposure before Q2 same-store sales data arrives sector-wide.

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Qualcomm (QCOM) surged after analyst Ming-Chi Kuo reported OpenAI is working with Qualcomm to develop smartphone AI chips. MediaTek is reportedly also involved. Neither company confirmed the report. The market didn't wait for confirmation.

Qualcomm's revenue has been heavily tied to mobile handsets while the market paid premiums for AI data center names. An OpenAI chip partnership would move it into the same category that sent Broadcom (AVGO) up on its Google deal and Intel (INTC) to a 25-year record on its Terafab commitment.

Apple (AAPL) slipped on the same report. If OpenAI is building custom smartphone chips with Qualcomm, it is building toward an AI hardware platform that doesn't need an iPhone. That is a direct threat to the ecosystem Apple has spent decades building.

Qualcomm reports Wednesday. The earnings will show whether the underlying business supports the AI premium the market started pricing today. Intel's beat sent AMD (AMD) up 12% as a read-through. Qualcomm's guidance will carry similar implications beyond its own stock.

Qualcomm's AI thesis needs Wednesday's earnings to hold. If guidance shows AI chip pipeline visibility, the premium is justified. If it shows traditional handset trends without a clear AI catalyst, today's move gives a lot back. Wait for the print before sizing in.

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The S&P hit a record. Oil climbed. Goldman and Citi both said the war runs at least two more months. Domino's said lower-income consumers are already pulling back. Qualcomm jumped on an unconfirmed OpenAI chip deal.

The week's real tests start Wednesday. Four Mag 7 companies report after the Fed releases its statement. Apple follows Thursday. Exxon and Chevron frame the energy picture Friday.

The market is priced for a short war and an AI cycle that keeps delivering. Goldman and Citi just said the war runs longer. Domino's just said the consumer at the margin is already moving. Wednesday answers the earnings side. Hormuz runs on its own clock.