April was the best month for both since 2020. The Dow posted its strongest month since late 2024.

All of it happened with oil above triple digits and the Strait of Hormuz shut.

Earnings trumped geopolitics. Alphabet (GOOGL) rallied hard after cloud revenue crushed estimates. Caterpillar (CAT) surged on a record backlog. Eli Lilly (LLY) jumped on obesity drug strength. 

The S&P hit records while fewer than 40 percent of its components advanced. Alphabet, Caterpillar, and Eli Lilly did the lifting. Everything underneath was flat to lower. That is not a broad rally. It is a narrow one wearing a record's clothing.

The dollar is softer. Treasuries are steady. Oil pulled back sharply from its intraday spike but sits well above pre-war levels. The yen is giving back gains from this week's intervention.

Today's test: ISM Manufacturing at 9am. The headline matters less than the prices subindex. Last month it hit its highest mark since mid-2022. If it stays hot, the Fed's inflation case hardens.

Market Implication

April's rally was built on a handful of names. If ISM prices run hot, the rate path reprices. The names carrying the index face their tightest squeeze since 2022. If ISM prices run hot and the index stays narrow, the VIX breaking above 20 is the first signal. The sectors most exposed are the rate-sensitive names that rallied on Wednesday's big tech relief, homebuilders, utilities, and REITs. Those names hold only if the data cooperates. Today's ISM is the first test.

The Fed fractured. Wednesday's hold was expected. The dissent was not. Four members broke ranks. The widest split since 1992. Three objected to the easing bias. They don't want to signal cuts while oil runs triple digits. A fourth voted for a cut outright. Powell confirmed he's stepping down as chair on May 15 but staying on as governor. Warsh cleared the Banking Committee the same morning.

Demand destruction arrived. The IEA expects global oil demand to contract this year. Not slow. Contract. The sharpest projected decline since the pandemic. Brent spiked to a four-year intraday high on reports of new CENTCOM strike options. Then it reversed hard. The market is pricing the idea that high prices are doing what diplomacy hasn't.

Structural Setup

The Fed can't cut while ISM prices scream inflation. Warsh can't build consensus when three voters just drew a line against easing. Higher for longer is the default path. Watch the two-year yield after ISM for the first read.

Jim Rickards just released a new expose with all the details.

Click here to get the full story because this could be a game-changer for America in 2026.

Alphabet and Caterpillar posted the session's biggest moves. Both were earnings stories with macro edges. Cloud spending confirms AI capex isn't slowing. Industrial backlogs confirm the real economy hasn't cracked.

Roblox (RBLX) got crushed after slashing its bookings outlook. The specific risk it crystallized is virtual economy monetization hitting a ceiling as users spend more time on AI-native platforms and less on legacy gaming environments. Unity Software and Take-Two carry the same exposure. When the platform that defined user-generated content misses its own bookings target, the entire category needs a closer look at whether engagement is actually converting to revenue.

Nvidia (NVDA) pushed to a new market cap milestone this week. But breadth stays thin. A handful of names are doing the lifting.

Sector Read

Energy reports before the bell. Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) are the first major oil names to report into the war premium. If cash flow surprises to the upside, watch for raised buyback guidance. That tells you whether integrated energy is absorbing the premium or returning it to shareholders.

The Senate rejected a withdrawal effort yesterday. Collins became the first Republican to break ranks. The admin argues the ceasefire pauses the clock. Democrats say the law has no such provision.

Congress left for recess. Murkowski plans to introduce a limited use-of-force authorization when they return May 11. That's the earliest legislative check.

The market question isn't constitutional. It's operational. Trump is being briefed on fresh strike options to break the Hormuz standoff. Iran said renewed attacks would trigger sustained strikes on U.S. positions.

Watch Signal

The deadline won't move crude by itself. The CENTCOM briefing will. New strikes mean Brent gaps higher and the demand destruction clock speeds up. Resumed talks mean the strait cracks open and the war premium starts to unwind. 

Watch Brent at the Sunday open. Above $108 means new strikes are being priced before any official statement. Below $102 means the standoff is holding and the war premium is stable. That level tells you more about Monday's open than any diplomatic statement will.

I want to show you something that might make you upset.

For decades, the biggest banks in America have been using a secret account to collect an average of 29% per year — without ever telling the public.

Since 2000, this single account has turned $1,000 into over $556,454.

Not by picking stocks or timing the market. Just by parking money in an account that’s averaged 29% year after year.

The big banks knew about it. You didn’t.

That changes today.

Click here to see how “The 29% Account” works.

Second miss in three quarters for the hardware franchise. Services hit a record. China revenue jumped sharply. Gross margin widened.

This is how AI-era hardware names get valued now. The device cycle matters less. The recurring stream matters more. Cook announced his departure for September. John Ternus takes over. The market barely flinched. It's not pricing the CEO. It's pricing the margin structure.

The iPhone miss doesn't change the thesis. It confirms it. Apple is a services company that happens to make phones.

The Read

If services growth holds while iPhone cycles soften, Apple reprices toward software comps with hardware optionality. That shifts the peer set and compresses the premium. Watch services margin next quarter for confirmation.

Economic Data: S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (8:45 AM), ISM Manufacturing PMI (9:00 AM), Baker Hughes Rig Count (1:00 PM) 

Fed Speakers: None 

Earnings: Exxon Mobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX), Colgate-Palmolive (CL), Dominion (D), Estée Lauder (EL), CBOE (CBOE), Cheniere Partners (CQP), Coterra Energy (CTRA) 

Overnight: Nikkei +0.38%, Shanghai Composite +0.11%, FTSE -0.64%, DAX +1.41

Not every great buy-and-hold stock is a household name. Our 7 Stocks to Buy and Hold Forever report includes under-the-radar leaders quietly dominating their niches - alongside global brands with unmatched staying power. 

Together, they form a portfolio core that can produce rising income and steady growth year after year. 

You can get the entire list free today… but only if you act before it moves behind the paywall.

May starts with two forks.

ISM lands in less than an hour. If the prices subindex stays near last month's highs, the inflation case hardens. The three Fed dissenters look prescient. And Warsh walks into his first meeting facing a committee that just showed it won't follow easily.

If prices cool, the easing bias survives into June. The earnings story holds. The rally has room.

But there's a second fork. The War Powers deadline arrives with no authorization and fresh strike plans on the desk. Congress is gone. If strikes come, oil reprices overnight. If they don't, the standoff lingers into next week.

Two forks. By close today, one of them starts to resolve.