Nasdaq futures are higher, pulled up by Intel's (INTC) after-hours move. S&P futures sit near flat. The Dow is ticking lower. Thursday's session produced a clean tell. The S&P and Nasdaq both touched new all-time highs and then reversed into red closes. That reversal started in software.

IBM (IBM) dropped after beating estimates but holding its full-year guide. ServiceNow fell harder after flagging delayed deals tied to the conflict. Salesforce (CRM) followed them down.

Oil is firming again. Iran seized two cargo ships Wednesday and fired on a third, the latest tit-for-tat with the U.S. Navy in the Strait. The risk premium keeps building. WTI is ticking higher this morning. Brent is pushing back above the upper end of its recent range.

The dollar is flat. Yields are ticking higher. The VIX fell back Friday morning after rising Thursday as the software unwind widened.

Market Implication

The market is running two trades at once. Hardware and semis are pricing in lasting AI demand. Software is pricing in lasting AI risk. That split can't hold. One leg is wrong.

The first is the chip demand story. SOXX posted its 17th straight higher close, the longest in the index's history. The rally is no longer just the usual AI names. Texas Instruments (TXN) surged to a record on growing data center demand. Analog chips and equipment makers are all moving. When the steady names start ripping, the cycle is widening.

The second force is the software repricing. ServiceNow (NOW) didn't miss by much. Revenue grew and beat estimates. But the company flagged deal slippage from the conflict and the market used it as an exit. The real fear runs deeper than the conflict. It's that AI tools will one day replace the platforms these companies sell. That's a price story dressed as a war story.

Structural Setup

Semis are trading on volume growth and supply constraints. Software is trading on price cuts and deep fear. The split is a bet that AI capex goes to the builders, not the old guard. The next wave of cloud earnings either confirms or breaks that thesis.

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SOXX hit its 12th straight intraday high. XLK, the broader tech ETF, nearly snapped its own 16-day streak as software dragged. IBM lost roughly a tenth of its value despite beating on both lines. That's the new bar. A beat alone won't do it. You need to raise.

American Airlines (AAL) beat expectations but slashed its full-year outlook on fuel costs. That's the Hormuz premium landing in income statements. Defense names held. Airlines compressed. Energy stayed bid.

Breadth narrowed. The S&P closed lower despite hitting a new intraday high. Fewer than four in ten names advanced.

Sector Read

The chip trade is broadening. That's bullish. But the software selloff is accelerating. If IBM and ServiceNow can't hold after beats, the bar for the next wave of cloud results is dangerously high. Salesforce reports next week. That's the next test.

Israel and Lebanon extended their ceasefire by three weeks after White House talks Thursday. That removes one front. But the Iran channel isn't moving. The Strait remains closed. Both sides are seizing ships. The ceasefire on one front hasn't opened the trade route that matters most for energy prices.

Michigan's final April reading drops at 10am. The first read came in at a record low. If the final holds or worsens, it confirms what energy names are already pricing: the buyer is pulling back. Equities have ignored soft sentiment data before. 

But Thursday changed the context. AmEx (AXP) reported that airline spending slowed sharply in the final weeks of March and refund requests spiked into April. That is the first time demand destruction showed up in actual transactions rather than survey responses. Michigan sentiment and AmEx spending data are now saying the same thing. When surveys and transactions align, equities can no longer treat one as noise.

Watch Signal

Michigan final is the number today. Above 50 and the ceasefire is lifting consumer confidence enough to matter. Below 47 means the record-low first read wasn't an outlier. It was the trend. If Procter & Gamble (PG) flags volume softness alongside a sub-47 Michigan, consumer staples lose their defensive bid, retail discretionary gives back the week's gains, and the chip trade becomes the only thing holding the index. That is a narrow market, not a healthy one.

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Revenue came in well above consensus. Earnings landed far above a street call near breakeven. Shares jumped sharply after hours. The guide for next quarter topped the street by a wide margin.

Here's why it matters beyond Intel. The chip factory arm is ramping its 18A process node. Google committed to using Intel CPUs for AI workloads. Musk's Terafab project chose Intel as a partner. Six straight quarters of upside surprise have turned a turnaround story into a momentum trade.

But Intel now trades at the richest price tag in the entire chip index. Higher than Arm. Higher than Nvidia. The comeback is real. The price assumes it speeds up from here.

The Read

Intel's beat proves the AI capex cycle is real. But the stock's multiple is pricing in perfection. If semis are the only corner of tech that works, the crowding becomes its own risk. The 17-day streak doesn't need to break to start costing latecomers.

Economic Data: Final April Michigan Consumer Sentiment (10:00am ET) 

Earnings: Procter & Gamble (PG), HCA Healthcare (HCA), Schlumberger (SLB), Norfolk Southern (NSC), Charter Communications (CHTR) 

Overnight: Nikkei +0.6%, Shanghai Composite −0.4%, FTSE −0.2%, DAX −0.3%

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The market is running a split-screen trade. One side bets AI capex flows to chipmakers. The other side bets AI tools hollow out software platforms still charging legacy multiples. Both can't be right forever.

Today offers two inputs. P&G reports before the bell. It's the first major staples read into the energy cost spike. Michigan sentiment at 10am either confirms the record-low first read or revises higher on ceasefire relief.

The fork is clean. If the spending data holds and semis keep running, the rally has legs into next week's Fed meeting. If Michigan cracks further and P&G flags cost pressure, the market has to decide whether strong chips alone can carry a slowing economy. That answer matters more than any single earnings print.