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Apr 17, 2026
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4 min read
Iran declared the Strait completely open. Oil fell 10%. The S&P crossed 7,100 for the first time. Every peace trade ran at once. The naval blockade on Iranian ports is still live. The easy part of this rally is done.
Netflix beat on every line and sold off sharply in after-hours. Reed Hastings is walking. The first premium-multiple print of the cycle just changed what the tape has to clear today.
Apr 16, 2026
5 min read
Israel and Lebanon agreed to a ceasefire. That removes the last condition Iran set for talks. The S&P hit a record. TSMC posted record profit and dropped. PepsiCo beat and warned inflation is coming. Only one of those is in the price.
The ceasefire clock is what matters now. Five days left. ASML beat every number, raised guidance, and dropped. That's not an earnings miss. That's the market telling you China exposure is the new discount rate for semis.
Apr 15, 2026
The S&P is now within 0.1% of its high. Tech is still leading. But under the surface, positioning, not fundamentals, is driving the move.
9 min read
The S&P is one session from its all-time high. ASML raised its full-year outlook this morning. Revenue beat. Margins hit the top of guidance. The stock dropped. The AI demand story is confirmed. The market already knew.
