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Mar 26, 2026
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9 min read
Iran rejected the US ceasefire plan and issued its own five-point counter, including sovereign control of the Strait of Hormuz. WTI is climbing back this morning. The peace trade lasted one session.
Mar 25, 2026
The S&P gained. Oil fell below $100. Then Iran rejected the peace plan. The market barely moved. That tells you everything about what actually got priced today.
The US sent Iran a peace plan. Iran's military said no. Oil fell anyway. The market's pricing the chance of peace, not the fact of it. That gap is what today resolves.
Mar 24, 2026
Oil pushed back above $100. Yields followed. Software broke again. Credit tightened further. Yesterday's bounce didn't fade, it got rejected.
11 min read
Stocks surged Monday on three words from Trump: talks with Iran. Then Iran denied every word. The Strait didn't reopen. XOM (XOM) sits near its all-time high. Futures are pulling back this morning.
Mar 23, 2026
8 min read
Oil fell. Stocks jumped. Then the story cracked mid-session. The rally ran on headlines, not supply. By the close, the market was already asking the only question that matters: did anything actually improve?
