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Mar 20, 2026
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9 min read
FedEx beat and raised guidance again last night. The Strait stayed closed. A month ago the market was pricing two Fed cuts by year-end. This morning it is debating a hike. These are not separate stories. They are the same stagflation trade showing up through freight, rates, and energy.
Mar 19, 2026
8 min read
The market stopped pricing delay and started pricing damage. Qatar’s LNG losses now look structural, copper is flashing slower growth, and looser bank rules arrive just as higher rates squeeze housing.
10 min read
Micron delivered a blockbuster quarter and the stock still got hit. The Fed held steady, Powell stayed cautious, and markets treated the message as no near-term relief. Oil kept climbing overnight, gold broke lower, and the tape is still trading like the energy shock matters more than the policy hold.
Mar 18, 2026
The Fed kept rates where they were. Oil ignored the memo entirely. Private credit stress reached consumer-credit exposure, and Micron steps up tonight to defend the AI hardware trade.
At 2:00 PM, the Fed is expected to hold rates. What matters is the dot plot and how Powell explains it. This is the first set of Fed projections that has to deal directly with a closed Strait of Hormuz, 15% global tariffs, and roughly 10 million barrels a day knocked out of supply. In December, the Fed penciled in one cut for 2026. This morning the question is whether Powell still sounds comfortable with that.
Mar 17, 2026
Crude climbed back and equities closed higher anyway. Airlines beat the bear case, AI infrastructure kept expanding, and the Fed's inbox got a lot more complicated.
