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Apr 16, 2026
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5 min read
Israel and Lebanon agreed to a ceasefire. That removes the last condition Iran set for talks. The S&P hit a record. TSMC posted record profit and dropped. PepsiCo beat and warned inflation is coming. Only one of those is in the price.
The ceasefire clock is what matters now. Five days left. ASML beat every number, raised guidance, and dropped. That's not an earnings miss. That's the market telling you China exposure is the new discount rate for semis.
Apr 15, 2026
The S&P is now within 0.1% of its high. Tech is still leading. But under the surface, positioning, not fundamentals, is driving the move.
9 min read
The S&P is one session from its all-time high. ASML raised its full-year outlook this morning. Revenue beat. Margins hit the top of guidance. The stock dropped. The AI demand story is confirmed. The market already knew.
Apr 14, 2026
10 min read
Pipeline inflation came in at half the expected rate. Physical oil is trading $34 above futures. The market is approaching all-time highs on data it hasn't fully read yet.
The S&P erased its war decline. The blockade went into effect the same morning. Those two facts haven't collided yet. Goldman Sachs posted its second-best revenue quarter in history on Monday. Record equities trading. Advisory nearly doubled from a year ago. The stock still dropped before the open. That disconnect is the template for this earnings season.
