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Oil Back at $100 | IEA Fails Its Stress Test | 10-Year at Five-Week High | The Insurance Bet Nobody Priced

Mar 12, 2026

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11 min read

Oil Back at $100 | IEA Fails Its Stress Test | 10-Year at Five-Week High | The Insurance Bet Nobody Priced

The IEA launched the largest emergency reserve release in its history on Wednesday. By Thursday morning, Brent was back above $100. When the biggest policy backstop in history fails to hold for 18 hours, the market is making a structural statement.

CPI Baseline | AI Spending Validated | Consumers Get Price Sensitive | Energy Shock Spreads

Mar 11, 2026

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10 min read

CPI Baseline | AI Spending Validated | Consumers Get Price Sensitive | Energy Shock Spreads

The market looked straight past inflation. AI spending got its credibility back, consumer companies started chasing discounts, and energy volatility kept hanging over everything.

$37 Oil Range in Five Days | Pre-War CPI at 8:30 | IEA Emergency Vote

Mar 11, 2026

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9 min read

$37 Oil Range in Five Days | Pre-War CPI at 8:30 | IEA Emergency Vote

Oracle beat on every line, raised FY27 revenue to $90 billion, and jumped 9% after hours. But this morning, Oracle is noise. February CPI drops at 8:30, and the IEA votes on the largest emergency oil release in history. Two signals, one session, both calibrated to a world that no longer exists.

Oil Relief | Tech Capex Surges | Housing Flickers | Travel Still Lags

Mar 10, 2026

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9 min read

Oil Relief | Tech Capex Surges | Housing Flickers | Travel Still Lags

Capital rotated quickly into infrastructure, housing-linked names, and AI buildouts while travel and energy leadership faded. The rally was real. The conviction, however, was selective.

Iran Rejects War's End | Transports in Freefall | Oracle After Close | CPI At 8:30

Mar 10, 2026

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9 min read

Iran Rejects War's End | Transports in Freefall | Oracle After Close | CPI At 8:30

Trump called the Iran war "very complete, pretty much." WTI dropped $33 in a single session. Iran's Revolutionary Guard called it nonsense before midnight. Both claims are still in the market this morning.

Oil Broke  | G-7 Stands Ready | Travel Took The Hit

Mar 9, 2026

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9 min read

Oil Broke | G-7 Stands Ready | Travel Took The Hit

By midday the macro panic cooled. The more important signal appeared underneath. The tape began sorting companies into clear buckets. That sorting mattered far more than the index rebound.

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