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Mar 25, 2026
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9 min read
The US sent Iran a peace plan. Iran's military said no. Oil fell anyway. The market's pricing the chance of peace, not the fact of it. That gap is what today resolves.
Mar 24, 2026
Oil pushed back above $100. Yields followed. Software broke again. Credit tightened further. Yesterday's bounce didn't fade, it got rejected.
11 min read
Stocks surged Monday on three words from Trump: talks with Iran. Then Iran denied every word. The Strait didn't reopen. XOM (XOM) sits near its all-time high. Futures are pulling back this morning.
Mar 23, 2026
8 min read
Oil fell. Stocks jumped. Then the story cracked mid-session. The rally ran on headlines, not supply. By the close, the market was already asking the only question that matters: did anything actually improve?
Trump threatened to obliterate Iran's power grid over the weekend. Then he posted that talks have been productive and strikes are postponed five days. Brent dropped more than 10%. Futures jumped 2.5%. The market spent the morning pricing one world. It is now pricing a different one.
Mar 22, 2026
10 min read
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