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Archive

Oct 16, 2026

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5 min read

The Hike Bet Sank to 13 Cents. AI's Borrowers Kept Paying Up.

Hot import prices and $110 Brent barely moved the October hike contract. The Nasdaq fell more than 2% as AI credit got a price list.

Oct 16, 2026

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5 min read

Warsh Wouldn't Say. The Hike Bet Halved. Borrowers Still Paid Up.

Kalshi's October hike contract fell to 13 cents after the Fed chair declined to preview the meeting. Earlier, an AI cloud loan priced at 95 cents and a bitcoin buyer paid 16.7% for new money. The Fed goes quiet Saturday.

Oct 15, 2026

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6 min read

Wholesale Prices Ran the Hottest Since 2022. Bonds Rallied Anyway.

Producer prices jumped 1.3%, and the 10-year yield fell 9 basis points to 5.10%. Kalshi's October hike bet spiked on the print and ended near where Wednesday left it.

Oct 15, 2026

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5 min read

The Rate Scare Faded Overnight. The Credit One Didn’t.

Kalshi's October hike bet gave back 86% of Wednesday's jump. Seoul tripped a circuit breaker anyway. TSMC beat and slipped. Producer prices land at 8:30.

Oct 14, 2026

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5 min read

The Two-Year Forgave the Print. Stocks Didn't.

Core prices rose 0.3% for a second month, and the two-year yield gave back most of its jump. CoreWeave's bonds now yield more than a startup's AI loan.

Oct 14, 2026

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5 min read

Iranian Officials Say Tehran Wants Oil High. Williams Sees One More Hike, None in 2027.

Two senior Iranian officials told Reuters that Tehran wants oil high through the U.S. vote. The New York Fed's John Williams sees one more hike and none in 2027. ASML says it can't build enough tools. CPI lands at 8:30 a.m.

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