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Feb 19, 2026
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13 min read
Walmart reports this morning at a $1 trillion valuation and 45x forward earnings. Palo Alto beat every line yesterday and dropped 6%. The market is testing whether safety trades survive the same scrutiny it just put on growth.
Feb 18, 2026
11 min read
Oil jumped 4%. The Fed showed no rush to cut. A strong earnings beat still sold off. The index looks calm. The pressure underneath it is not.
Palo Alto Networks beat on every line and dropped 6% after hours on weak guidance. The market is now punishing the companies building AI defenses, not just the ones losing to them. Today, FOMC minutes at 2pm and Analog Devices before the bell test whether anything breaks the 6,800 to 7,000 range.
Feb 17, 2026
10 min read
CPI cooled. Yields fell. Stocks still hesitate. Copper surges. Software weakens. Defense draws steady buying as capital shifts risk.
BHP reported copper overtook iron ore in earnings for the first time, driven by AI power demand. US envoys open nuclear talks with Iran and peace talks with Ukraine in Geneva. The physical buildout is accelerating. The geopolitical surface area is widening. Capital has to choose which layer it trusts.
Feb 16, 2026
Presidents Day pauses the tape. It does not pause the cycle. Year 2 historically narrows tolerance and rewards resilience over momentum.
