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Mar 27, 2026
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9 min read
Trump posted after Thursday's close. Ten more days. Futures barely reacted. The first extension lit a one-day relief trade. This one didn't.
Mar 26, 2026
TotalEnergies bought 69 March cargoes. The whole of 2025 saw 347. Three Treasury auctions failed this week. Meta lost $119 billion. The five-day deadline expires tonight. Equities are still priced for a short war. The physical market already moved on.
Iran rejected the US ceasefire plan and issued its own five-point counter, including sovereign control of the Strait of Hormuz. WTI is climbing back this morning. The peace trade lasted one session.
Mar 25, 2026
The S&P gained. Oil fell below $100. Then Iran rejected the peace plan. The market barely moved. That tells you everything about what actually got priced today.
The US sent Iran a peace plan. Iran's military said no. Oil fell anyway. The market's pricing the chance of peace, not the fact of it. That gap is what today resolves.
Mar 24, 2026
Oil pushed back above $100. Yields followed. Software broke again. Credit tightened further. Yesterday's bounce didn't fade, it got rejected.
