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Apr 1, 2026
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9 min read
Trump signaled an exit from Iran. Wall Street closed Q1 up sharply. The Strait is still closed, and futures this morning price a shorter war, not an open Strait.
Mar 31, 2026
The Dow surged 1,000 points. The Nasdaq posted its best session since last May. The catalyst was a WSJ report. The market heard ceasefire. The report said something more complicated.
Iran struck a fully loaded Kuwaiti tanker in Dubai's port overnight. Oil jumped nearly four percent. Then the WSJ reported Trump is willing to end the war even if the Strait stays closed. Oil gave it all back. Equity futures are up. Micron (MU) is down in Asia again. The same overnight session produced a ceasefire signal and a tanker attack. The market is going to have to pick one.
Mar 30, 2026
Powell took the hike off the table today. The market gave back the rally anyway. That tells you everything about who is actually in charge right now.
The Houthis fired on Israel over the weekend. The market had them priced as quiet for a month. Pakistan offered to host US-Iran talks. Oil opened sharply higher. All before the open.
Mar 29, 2026
11 min read
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