Last week the talks collapsed. The ceasefire held but negotiations went nowhere. Iran seized ships. Oil rose for a fourth straight week. Airlines priced Hormuz disruption through the year. Defense sold off during a war. Texas Instruments had its best day in 26 years.

The S&P still closed near records. The chip index posted seventeen straight higher closes. The market kept sorting winners from losers and the cost line kept being the cut.

This week is the biggest of the earnings season. It also carries the Fed decision, GDP, and PCE. Every major data point and every major tech name land in the same five days. Here is what to watch.

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The Fed decision lands Wednesday afternoon. No cut is expected. The question is what Powell says about the path from here.

Markets are still assuming a smooth handoff. Warsh told the Senate he won't promise rate cuts. He walked back his AI disinflationary thesis. His confirmation odds collapsed to 24 percent. Powell's term ends May 15. The market hasn't priced a leadership transition during peak inflation season.

Watch the press conference more than the decision. If Powell signals the committee is prepared to hold longer than markets expect, the two-year yield moves before the index does. A move above 3.85 percent prices out the first cut of the year.

Watch Signal 

Two-year yield reaction in the thirty minutes after Powell starts talking. That is the fastest read on whether the market's rate path just shifted.

Thursday is the heaviest data day of the week. GDP, core PCE, personal income and spending, the employment cost index, jobless claims, and Chicago PMI all land the same morning.

GDP tells you where the economy stood before the market started repricing war risk. The relevant number is core PCE. Above 3.1 percent and the Fed's case for patience weakens considerably. Flat or lower and the committee gets cover to hold without signaling tightening.

The employment cost index lands the same morning. Wage growth staying elevated alongside rising input costs is the stagflation signal the Fed has been watching most carefully. If both ECI and PCE run hot alongside a weak GDP print, the market gets its clearest stagflation read since the war began.

Watch Signal 

Core PCE above 3.1 percent with ECI above consensus is the combination that reprices the back end of the curve. Watch both before reading any earnings reaction Thursday morning.

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Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOG) both report Tuesday after the close. Amazon (AMZN) and Meta (META) report Thursday after the close. Apple (AAPL) closes the week Thursday as well.

This is the most concentrated earnings event of the year. Every name enters into the template last week established. The print is the entry. The cost guide is the trade. Reiteration into a record stock price gets sold.

Microsoft reports first. Azure AI growth is the number. If cloud revenue accelerates on AI workload demand, the software selloff that hit ServiceNow and IBM this week gets a counterargument. If it doesn't, the split between hardware winners and software losers widens further.

Alphabet reports the same night. The Google-Apple Gemini integration is where investor focus sits. If that partnership is generating measurable revenue from the iPhone install base, Alphabet is capturing optionality Apple used to own outright.

Amazon reports Thursday. The Anthropic deal committed $100 billion to AWS over ten years. If that commitment is already showing up in AWS segment revenue, the multiple expansion accelerates. Management's language on the fuel surcharge matters almost as much.

Meta reports Thursday into the same template Netflix failed two weeks ago. The ad business needs to show pricing power. The AI infrastructure spend needs to show returns. A guide raise confirms the premium. A reiteration sells it off.

Apple closes the week. Services growth and AI integration revenue are the investor debate. The quarter is less important than what management says about whether the Gemini partnership is generating returns yet.

Earnings Signal

Five names, same rule. Beat consensus is the floor. Raise the guide is the bar. The market will not forgive a reiteration at current multiples.

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Caterpillar (CAT) reports Tuesday. It is the cleanest read on whether capital spending is holding up outside of tech. If order softness tied to elevated energy costs shows up in guidance, the industrial capex thesis weakens heading into a prolonged disruption.

Visa (V) and Mastercard (MA) both report this week. Transaction volume across categories gives the broadest real-time read on consumer behavior available. If discretionary spending is softening, it shows up in payment network data before it shows up in retail sales. AmEx (AXP) showed airline refunds spiking this week. If Visa and Mastercard confirm the softening is broader than airlines, the consumer story changes before GDP confirms it.

Starbucks (SBUX) reports Tuesday. Traffic trends and average ticket size give an early read on whether consumers are trading down as gas costs rise. General Motors (GM) reports Tuesday and Ford (F) reports Thursday. Vehicle margin guidance from both is the auto sector's stress test into a consumer already absorbing higher fuel bills.

Exxon (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) both report Friday. If the physical crude premium stays wide and the Strait remains constrained, their margins stay elevated. If the futures market starts catching up to physical reality, the earnings power of the last twelve weeks begins to normalize.

Earnings Signal 

Caterpillar's order commentary is the industrial economy's forward signal. Visa and Mastercard's discretionary data is the consumer's. Both land before Friday's ISM Manufacturing PMI closes the week.

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Last week the market's preferred story broke. The earnings tape kept running anyway. This week the numbers get a vote on whether that can continue.

The Fed speaks Wednesday. GDP and PCE land Thursday. Five of the largest companies in the world report in forty-eight hours. The cost line is still the cut. The physical oil market is still pricing a different war than the futures market. The consumer is starting to show cracks in the highest-frequency data available.

Last week the market chose optimism. This week the numbers get a vote. This week it finds out how many winners there actually are.