The Nasdaq is carrying the heaviest drag. ServiceNow (NOW) and IBM are pre-market's worst losers after Wednesday's earnings.

Crude got its second wind overnight. Tankers got hit in Hormuz again through the Asian session. Brent reclaimed the line the ceasefire had pushed it below. WTI followed.

The VIX is climbing into the open, back above 19. At that level options markets are pricing a two to three percent daily range. That is not panic. It is the cost of holding risk at record prices with crude firming again overnight.

The dollar is barely firmer. The 10-year yield is pinned. Gold gave back a piece of yesterday's rally. That reads more like a dollar move than a risk-off shift. Copper softened too. When copper moves down with tech, growth is getting repriced.

Bitcoin slid overnight. Not dramatic. Just tracking the risk tone.

Market Implication

At record closes, the multiple has no cushion. Wednesday's tape showed the multiple gets compressed first, not the earnings line. Crude's second wind tests the bid directly.

Tankers got hit in Hormuz through the Asian session. Brent reclaimed the ground the ceasefire had pushed it below. WTI followed.

Equities priced resolution on the ceasefire extension. Oil didn't. The risk premium markets had started to unwind is back on.

Wednesday's earnings are the second mover. United Rentals (URI) and Texas Instruments (TXN) beat and got bought. ServiceNow (NOW) and IBM beat and got sold. Tesla (TSLA) beat on profits and missed on revenue. Then it faded after flagging a capex step-up on the call.

What sorted them was the cost line. NOW carried integration drag from Armis. IBM ran hard into the print and couldn't clear the setup. URI and TXN didn't guide costs higher.

That's the rule at these multiples. A beat gets the first move. Forward spending decides where it lands.

Structural Setup

Energy-sensitive names re-enter today with crude firmer than Tuesday's base case. Airlines and refiners lead that list. Southwest's (LUV) miss last night set the template. American Airlines (AAL) prints this morning into the same tape.

OpenAI is gearing up for a historic IPO, and Silicon Valley insider Luke Lango has found a way for you to invest BEFORE the announcement is even made. 

You don't need to file any special paperwork… buy shares from a former employee… have a source on the inside – or jump through any other hurdles.

Best of all, all you need is just $10 to get started.

Nasdaq printed fresh records. Today's tape reverses it. ServiceNow (NOW) and IBM are dragging the index lower. The same leaders are now the laggards.

Semis are the split. Texas Instruments (TXN) is up sharply on its Q1 beat and demand commentary. That pull is carrying Analog Devices (ADI) and Microchip (MCHP) with it. KLA-Tencor (KLAC) is quiet ahead of its after-close print. Intel (INTC) is the event risk tonight.

Energy is set up to bid. WTI is holding above Tuesday's base case. Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) reports this morning into softer copper. That pairing reads as a growth signal. Copper is pricing the cycle faster than oil is pricing supply.

Sector Read

Semis are the cleanest tape-read today. TXN strength into the open, INTC risk after close. If the bid extends from TXN into broader capital-equipment names, the AI spending cycle held through Q1. 

If it stops at TXN, it was a one-name beat. Intel closes the day with its own binary. The 18A ramp, AI-CPU demand, and fab losses all land after the close. Options are pricing a move wider than any single-name print this week. If Intel guides clean, the AI-CPU thesis gets its first hardware confirmation. If it doesn't, the Terafab momentum stalls before it starts.

Tankers got hit overnight. Iran isn't joining talks. The US blockade of Iranian ports is still up. The Strait is still closed.

That's the gap equities priced away from Wednesday. Risk assets took the extension as resolution. Oil didn't.

Initial Jobless Claims print at 8:30. Consensus is for a small uptick. Last week came in below trend. A softer labor print gives rates more room. It also gives the equity tape something to weigh against crude.

Flash PMIs land at 9:45. Services has been hovering right at the line. Manufacturing has been holding up. The April reads are the first pressure test of whether the oil shock is leaking into activity yet.

Watch Signal

Hormuz escalation, PMI services at the line, INTC's guide. Three things resolve today's two-way risk. Crude firmer than Tuesday is the binder.

When I first found this company, I thought it had to be a mistake.

Massive profits. A partnership tied to AI. And a price so low it made no sense.

The deeper I looked, the clearer it became — this was what I call a rare “unicorn” stock: wildly profitable and deeply undervalued.

Out of more than 23,000 public companies, only one fits this setup right now.

Even more intriguing, it could play a major role in solving the AI energy crisis — using AI itself — and has received public backing from President Trump.

Click here to get the full details.

The template came Wednesday night. Southwest (LUV) missed both lines with its hedge book gone and fuel running straight through.

AAL's setup is worse on balance. Weaker cash position. Higher leverage. Same unhedged fuel exposure.

AAL has what LUV doesn't. International route mix. Premium cabin exposure. A revenue line that scales with long-haul demand even when fares rise.

The fork is whether that's enough at this crude regime.

The Read

AAL's print today is the purest test of the majors' model at a sustained crude regime. A print at or above the bar keeps the airline sell-off LUV-specific. A miss on fuel and it becomes the group's problem.

Economic Data: Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM), Chicago Fed National Activity Index March (8:30 AM), S&P Global Flash PMIs Manufacturing/Services/Composite (9:45 AM), EIA Natural Gas Storage (10:30 AM)

Earnings: Caterpillar CAT, American Express AXP, Thermo Fisher TMO, Honeywell HON, Lockheed Martin LMT, Union Pacific UNP, Comcast CMCSA, Freeport-McMoRan FCX, American Airlines AAL (AM); Intel INTC, KLA-Tencor KLAC, Gilead GILD (PM)

Overnight: Nikkei -0.75% | Shanghai Composite -0.32% | FTSE -0.72% | DAX -0.4%

If you have any money in the stock market, you may want to pay attention.

New research points to a massive market-moving event that could send hundreds of popular stocks into a sudden free fall.

Holding the wrong stocks when this hits could erase years of gains.

That’s why analysts have now identified a list of stocks investors may want to avoid as this event unfolds.

If you want to see what’s coming — and which stocks could be most at risk.

Click here to get the full details before it’s too late.

Records closed Wednesday on the ceasefire. Oil reopened the tape overnight.

Today runs two tests of that gap. American Airlines (AAL) opens. The test: does the airline model bend before crude? Intel (INTC) closes the day. The test: can AI-CPU demand offset the fab losses?

The ceasefire extension was supposed to buy enough time for earnings to reprice the tape higher. For one session, it did.

The question now is whether one session was all it could deliver.

If AAL clears the bar and INTC guides clean, the rally has a second leg. If either breaks, yesterday's records become this week's ceiling.