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29K Jobs Missed by 55K | Hike Bets Moved to December | G7 to Release 100M Barrels

Oct 2, 2026

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5 min read

29K Jobs Missed by 55K | Hike Bets Moved to December | G7 to Release 100M Barrels

October hike odds slipped on a weak jobs report, but December odds rose to 86% and the two-year closed higher. Diesel fell as the G7 moved to release reserves. Brent didn't.

Dio Pouerie, +1

Nike Down on China Warning | Carrier Heads to Gulf | Europe Taps Diesel Reserves

Oct 2, 2026

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6 min read

Nike Down on China Warning | Carrier Heads to Gulf | Europe Taps Diesel Reserves

Nike guided for more sales declines and flagged China. The US is sending a third carrier to the Middle East with 10,000 troops. Europe held an emergency meeting to release diesel reserves. WTI is down nearly 4%. The jobs data this morning is set to test the rate narrative.

Dio Pouerie, +1

Two Fed Leaders Said Wait | Trump Said Inflation Can Pay the Debt | AI Buildings Got Charged

Oct 1, 2026

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5 min read

Two Fed Leaders Said Wait | Trump Said Inflation Can Pay the Debt | AI Buildings Got Charged

The two-year fell 10 basis points as Jefferson echoed Williams on patience. The 30-year fell 3 on the same day Trump said inflation can pay down the debt.

Dio Pouerie, +1

10-Year Hits 24-Year High | France in a Bond Rout | Google Released Gemini 4

Oct 1, 2026

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5 min read

10-Year Hits 24-Year High | France in a Bond Rout | Google Released Gemini 4

The 10-year touched 5.338%, its highest since 2002. France's bond market is breaking down ahead of its budget. Google released its most advanced AI model. Chinese refiners reportedly halted October fuel exports.

Dio Pouerie, +1

Core PCE Held at 3.0% | Goldman Dropped October | Gulf Crude Is Back, Diesel Isn't

Sep 30, 2026

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5 min read

Core PCE Held at 3.0% | Goldman Dropped October | Gulf Crude Is Back, Diesel Isn't

Core PCE came in at 3.0% against a 3.3% forecast, after the government cut July to the same rate. Goldman now calls an October hike unlikely. Gulf crude exports are back to 2025 levels, fuel shipments are at half, and the 10-year touched its highest since 2002.

Dio Pouerie, +1

Boeing Takes the Navy's Next Fighter | PCE Comes in Soft | Micron After the Bell

Sep 30, 2026

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6 min read

Boeing Takes the Navy's Next Fighter | PCE Comes in Soft | Micron After the Bell

Boeing beat Northrop for a Navy fighter program worth more than $20 billion. The Fed's preferred inflation gauge came in softer than expected. October hike odds have fallen to 43% from 71% on Monday. Micron closes out the quarter tonight.

Dio Pouerie, +1