TQ Evening Briefing

Zscaler beat everything and lost nearly a third of its value. Oil dropped hard on an Iran deal draft the White House called a fabrication. Salesforce reports and the entire software trade is riding on it.

THE SETUP

Stocks Closed at Records as Oil Broke Lower

The Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all closed at fresh highs Wednesday. Gains stayed modest, but the broader signal mattered more than the percentages.

Oil prices fell sharply after reports suggested progress toward a possible U.S.–Iran framework deal. Brent crude dropped toward its lowest level since April, easing inflation fears and helping Treasury yields stabilize into the close.

AI leadership remained mixed beneath the surface. Micron (MU) extended its breakout after crossing the $1 trillion mark, while several large semiconductor names paused after recent rallies.

TQ Signal

Falling oil prices are changing the tone across markets quickly. Investors are starting to price in a scenario where energy pressure fades before growth does.

That shift helped support equities even without broad participation from every major tech name.

PREMIER FEATURE

You’re Being LIED To About The Iran War

Forget EVERYTHING you’ve heard about the Iran war.

Especially the reasons why we’re bombing the country.

THEME ONE

Zscaler Beat. The Market Took 30% Anyway. That Is the Software Tax Right Now.

Zscaler (ZS) beat earnings. Beat revenue. Posted record margins. Revenue grew 25% year over year. The stock lost nearly a third of its value because forward guidance missed by roughly $1 million. One million dollars short. At a company generating hundreds of millions per quarter.

If that sounds insane, that's because it is, and also because it's exactly how this market works right now. The bar is not beating the quarter. The bar is proving every future quarter will not disappoint either. With the 10-year above 4.5%, the market has zero patience for uncertainty in the growth path.

The wreckage spread immediately. Palo Alto (PANW) fell CrowdStrike (CRWD) dropped. The Global X Cybersecurity ETF (BUG) lost over 4%. None of those companies reported anything. They just share a zip code with Zscaler.

Execution Bias 

Zscaler confirmed the Palantir (PLTR) pattern. Beating is not enough. Own software where AI revenue is already confirmed and accelerating. Reduce names still proving the growth story exists.

THEME TWO

Salesforce Beat. The AI Pricing Fight Is Still the Whole Story.

Salesforce (CRM) beat on earnings and revenue, raised full-year EPS guidance, and pushed Agentforce ARR above $1 billion. The stock still slipped after hours because the market is focused on one thing: whether AI agents eventually break the seat-based software model.

That fear is not hypothetical anymore. Palantir (PLTR) already said it replaced its own CRM software internally. If companies build more custom AI workflows, software vendors charging per employee suddenly have a problem.

Salesforce says customer seat counts are holding up. More importantly, CFO Robin Washington confirmed the company is shifting toward a hybrid pricing structure tied partly to consumption, not just users.

Execution Bias

The quarter was good enough to stop the bleeding, but not strong enough to kill the AI disruption narrative. Agentforce growth matters now more than headline revenue.

FROM OUR PARTNERS

The SpaceX IPO makes me FURIOUS

Elon has reportedly filed to take SpaceX Public... in an IPO that's expected to hit a $1.75 trillion valuation.

The biggest in Wall Street history...

And you know who's going to make all the money? The banks brokering the deal. The hedge fund managers. The billionaire insiders. The same "already rich" 1%'ers.

After the IPO, everyone else will be left fighting over scraps.

That's why I'm leveling the playing field.

THEME THREE

Boeing Says It Can Build 47 Jets a Month. Prove It.

Boeing (BA) CEO Kelly Ortberg said today the company passed an FAA "capstone review" on 737 MAX production. That clears the path to 47 jets per month. The stock gained.

That number is a lifeline, not a milestone. The FAA capped Boeing's output in 2024 after a door panel blew out mid-flight. That cap froze cash flow. Boeing burns cash every month it cannot deliver planes. Every undelivered jet is a jet that hasn't been fully paid for. A backlog full of aging orders means frustrated airlines and Airbus gaining ground that is hard to reclaim.

Ortberg said stabilization takes a few more months. That is the right thing to say. Boeing has announced ramp-ups before and stumbled. The gain reflects cautious optimism. Not celebration.

Execution Bias 

The cash flow inflection is real if Ortberg executes. Own the recovery thesis with a tight stop on any production quality headline. The upside is significant. But you've seen this movie before.

QUICK THEMES

The Russell 2000 hit a fresh all-time high for the second straight day. Small caps are the purest rate-sensitivity signal in the market. Two straight records while yields ease means the bond market is quietly doing more for this rally than any earnings beat.

Dollar General (DG) was downgraded to hold by Deutsche Bank on accelerating lower-income consumer headwinds. The stock is down 30% since the war began. When the discount retailers start getting cut, the consumer stress has spread past the obvious names into the ones people thought were safe.

SK Hynix crossed $1 trillion in market cap hours after Micron (MU) hit the same milestone. Two memory companies joined the trillion-dollar club in the same 24-hour window. Micron got there in 48 days from $500 billion. Nvidia (NVDA) took 490 days to cover the same ground. The AI memory trade is moving faster than anything else in markets right now.

FROM OUR PARTNERS

Futurist Eric Fry says it will be a "Season of
Surge" for these three stocks

One company to replace Amazon... another to rival Tesla... and a third to upset Nvidia.

These little-known stocks are poised to overtake the three reigning tech darlings in a move that could completely reorder the top dogs of the stock market.

Eric Fry gives away names, tickers and full analysis in this first-ever free broadcast.

THE CLOSE

Salesforce already reported. PCE tomorrow.

The Dow printed a record. Two memory stocks hit $1T in the same session. Software is up 25% off the lows, but the rally is still thin underneath.

Salesforce delivered a mixed print: beat on EPS and revenue, raised full-year guidance, but forward signals were softer and the stock faded after hours. Agentforce crossed $1B ARR, but the bigger question didn’t move: does AI expand the model or slowly pressure seat-based pricing.

Tomorrow is PCE. One tells you whether inflation is actually cooling. The other tells you whether this rally has real rate support or just momentum.

This week isn’t ending quietly.

Keep Reading