The S&P and Nasdaq barely moved. That gap tells you what kind of rally this is.

Futures are ticking higher this morning. The S&P is headed for its eighth straight weekly gain. But the gains are narrow. Wednesday's oil-relief trade gave back some ground Thursday after Iran's supreme leader ordered enriched uranium to stay in the country. That reversed the crude drop and sent yields bouncing again.

Nvidia (NVDA) is now a full day past its earnings beat. The stock lost ground on the session. That story was yesterday's. Today's is what happened around it. Walmart (WMT) flagged fuel costs eating into margins. Quantum names surged on a $2 billion grant package.

Market Implication

The Dow's record is a value trade. The Nasdaq's flat week is a cost-of-capital trade. Both are true simultaneously and they cannot stay true indefinitely. The 10-year holding above 4.50 percent is the specific level keeping pressure on growth names. A sustained move back below it is what gives the Nasdaq room to catch the Dow. Waller tonight is the first signal on which direction that move goes.

I know because I've seen the evidence firsthand.

On March 2nd — three days after the first missiles hit — I sat across from two U.S. Congressmen in back-to-back private meetings.

Those meetings pointed me toward something I spent weeks verifying.

The real purpose behind the strikes. The real objective. And the single company at the dead center of all of it.

This isn't random. It's a calculated Two-Front Economic War.

And there's one company positioned right at the heart of it.

See the strategy behind the Iran war — and the company at the center of it

The sooner you understand what's really happening — the better positioned you'll be before August 12th.

— Dylan Jovine, Founder, Behind the Markets

Wednesday's oil crash came on Iran deal hopes. Thursday's reversal came on one sentence. Iran's supreme leader ordered enriched uranium to stay inside the country. That's a red line for U.S. talks. Crude bounced off its lows. Yields followed. The clean chain from Wednesday broke in half.

Government money enters quantum. The Commerce Department is giving $2 billion in grants to nine quantum firms. The government is taking equity stakes. IBM (IBM) alone gets $1 billion. This isn't a research grant. It's policy with skin in the game. Chips Act money is flowing into the next layer of the compute trade.

The consumer finds the war. Walmart took a $175 million hit from fuel costs in the quarter. Its CFO warned pain gets worse now that tax refund season is done. Yesterday this was a commodity story. Now it's a margin story. The Iran war premium just showed up in the aisle where most of the country shops.

Structural Setup

The war premium has three speeds now. Energy names price it in crude. Bond traders price it in yields. And as of Thursday, consumer names are pricing it in margins. The third leg is the newest and the least priced. Watch whether retail guides reflect fuel or absorb it. That answer shapes the second half.

Rigetti (RGTI) jumped more than 30%. D-Wave (QBTS) surged over 20%. GlobalFoundries (GFS) added double digits on its $375 million grant. IBM rose sharply on its own billion-dollar award.

The AI trade split. Nvidia slid despite its beat. Quantum soared on grant money. The chip-level trade gave nothing. The next-layer trade gave everything. That's a rotation, not a rally.

Eli Lilly (LLY) gained on strong obesity drug trial data. GLP-1 adoption reducing caloric intake is a direct volume headwind for food and beverage staples. If the drug pipeline keeps expanding, consumer staples aren't the defensive trade they used to be.

The Dow beat the Nasdaq. Value led growth.

Sector Read

The compute trade is forking. Hardware can beat big and go flat. Quantum can rally on a single headline. The tell is whether IBM holds above its Thursday close next week. If it does, the grant money is sticking. If it fades, this was noise.

When he promised reusable rockets, NASA said it was impossible.

Nobody's laughing anymore.

Elon doesn't just build companies. He solves impossible problems everyone else gave up on.

And right now, AI is facing its biggest crisis yet — a genuine infrastructure bottleneck threatening to strangle the entire industry. Google, Amazon, Microsoft are all hitting the same wall.

Elon sees a fix. Bloomberg reports he's preparing to take SpaceX public to fund a breakthrough that could solve it once and for all.

But there's something mainstream media has missed — one little-known partner company at the heart of his mission that could soar as his plan unfolds.

Right now, as part of our Memorial Day Savings Event, you can get the full details — ticker symbol included — for just $19. That's 85% off the regular $129 price.

Offer expires Monday at midnight.

Get Memorial Day discounted access here

11780 US Highway 1, Palm Beach Gardens, FL 33408-3080 Would you like to edit your e-mail notification preferences or unsubscribe from our mailing list? Copyright © 2026 Weiss Ratings. All rights reserved.

The filing targets a value above $1.75 trillion. It aims to raise $75 billion. The company is calling itself an AI play now, not just a rocket maker. Starlink funds the buildout. Space-based data centers are planned for 2028. Listing is set for June 11.

Then the Starship V3 launch scrubbed Thursday. A hydraulic pin on the tower arm wouldn't retract. The countdown got within 28 seconds. SpaceX is trying again today at 5:30 PM CT. A clean flight before the roadshow starts matters. A second scrub doesn't help the IPO narrative. If the vehicle can't launch cleanly before the June 11 roadshow, institutional buyers start asking whether the space infrastructure thesis is execution risk, not just timeline risk. That compresses the valuation range before the book even opens.

Waller speaks at 5 PM today. He's the first Fed voice since the minutes showed most officials leaning toward hikes if inflation holds. Markets price a coin-flip on December. Waller's tone sets the weekend read on rates.

Watch Signal

SpaceX's June listing pulls demand from every AI name on the Nasdaq. That $75 billion has to come from somewhere. Today has two signals. Starship at 5:30 PM CT is the first real-time test of the IPO thesis. Waller at 5 PM ET is the first post-minutes read on rates. A clean launch plus a dovish lean is the best weekend setup for risk. Either one failing changes the tone.

It's been in yields since April. Thursday it crossed into consumer.

Walmart's CFO said something worth hearing. Tax refunds had been hiding the fuel cost drag on lower-income shoppers. That cushion is gone. The next quarter will be the clean read. And Walmart guided below the Street for it.

This is the path that turns a commodity shock into a growth shock. Crude stays high. Shipping costs rise. Retail margins shrink. Consumers trade down. Spending slows. The Fed sees softer growth but sticky inflation. That's the worst setup for policy.

BJ's Wholesale (BJ) reports this morning. If it flags the same fuel drag, this stops being a Walmart story. It becomes the template for every consumer name reporting in June.

The Read

The war premium's third leg is the one most portfolios aren't built for. Energy exposure hedges the first. Duration hedges the second. The third hits consumer and retail names that most investors hold as defense. If BJ's confirms what Walmart showed, the "safe" part of the portfolio isn't safe. That's the repricing risk heading into June.

Billions of dollars are quietly flowing into a small group of stocks ahead of the next rate-cut rally.

Our analysts tracked the institutional money and uncovered 10 companies positioned to surge when the Fed pivots.

Some are AI leaders.
Others are dividend powerhouses built for income and upside.

Miss them now and you may be chasing the rally later.

See the Top 10 Stocks to Own in the Second Half of 2026 — free today.

Economic Data: Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final 

Fed Speakers: Waller 

Earnings: No notable reports

Overnight: Nikkei +2.68%, Shanghai +0.87%, FTSE +0.45%, DAX +0.81%

The Iran war has been an oil story since March. A bond story since April. Thursday it became a consumer story. Three legs. The third is the one nobody hedged.

Michigan sentiment lands at 4 PM. If the consumer is already flagging the drag Walmart described, the Fed's job gets harder. Sticky inflation plus soft demand is the one outcome that leaves Waller with no good answer tonight. BJ's reports before the open. Waller speaks after the close. By Monday, we'll know if the war premium has a fourth leg.