Trump declared the Iran ceasefire over at the NATO summit in Ankara. He said it at a press conference alongside NATO Secretary General Rutte. Iran's foreign ministry called the US strikes a gross violation of the MOU. WTI jumped more than 6% to above $74. Dow futures fell more than 500 points. S&P futures dropped nearly 1%. Nasdaq futures fell more than 1%.

Europe sold off broadly. The Stoxx 600 dropped nearly 2%. Oil and gas was the only sector gaining. The Kospi entered a bear market, down more than 20% from its June 19 record. South Korea briefly triggered a sidecar, stopping sell-side trading for five minutes.

The session opens with the ceasefire formally dead and Fed minutes landing at 2pm.

This is no longer a ceasefire-with-friction story. Trump said it is over. WTI above $74 into a hawkish Fed minutes release is the most difficult macro setup of the year. Energy gets the only clean bid. Everything else reassesses.

They didn't coordinate. They arrived independently. And they all landed on the same conclusion...

That the AI revolution depends on this technology... which could see an explosion in interest this August as a key government deadline is scheduled...

And one small stock is at the center.

Click here for the full story on the technology Big Oil tried to ban.

Before the Iran escalation overnight, the New York Fed released its June consumer expectations survey. One-year inflation expectations rose to 3.7%, the highest in nearly three years. Three-year expectations hit their highest since June 2022.

This number matters more than it looks. The Fed watches inflation expectations closely because expectations can become self-fulfilling. When consumers expect higher prices, they demand higher wages. When businesses expect higher costs, they raise prices preemptively. The survey is not just a sentiment read. It is an input into actual inflation dynamics.

Warsh walks into his first minutes release with consumers expecting the highest inflation in three years, WTI above $74, and a president who just declared the ceasefire over on live television. The minutes were always going to be hawkish in tone. Every piece of data since that meeting has made the hawkish case stronger, not weaker.

Trivariate Research's Adam Parker made the bull case Tuesday. Nearly three-fifths of S&P 500 earnings expansion over the next two years comes from tech. You cannot be bearish on tech and bullish on the market. That framing holds. But it requires the rate environment to cooperate. A 3.7% inflation expectation reading into an oil spike is not a cooperating rate environment.

The Fed minutes at 2pm are the session's anchor. Any explicit mention of hike conditions or dissent language moves the 2-year yield immediately. The consumer expectations data gives the hawks fresh ammunition walking into that release.

Tuesday's session drew the sector lines cleanly. Healthcare hit an all-time high. Palantir (PLTR) rose for a seventh straight session. Walmart (WMT) gained on price cuts. Fiserv (FISV) jumped on bank acquisition talks.

On the other side, Intel (INTC) fell nearly 10%. Marvell (MRVL) dropped 7.5%. GE Vernova (GEV) fell 6.5%. Caterpillar (CAT) dropped after announcing the Skycatch acquisition. Every name tied to AI infrastructure spending took a hit.

The rotation into defensives and out of AI spenders is now four sessions old. That is long enough to call it a trend. It is not long enough to call it permanent. Earnings season starts in earnest next week. If hyperscaler capex guidance holds, the AI spenders get a reason to bounce. If it disappoints, the rotation accelerates.

Energy is the cleanest trade into an oil spike. Healthcare has momentum and a genuine fundamental story separate from AI. AI infrastructure names need an earnings catalyst to reverse. Until then the rotation has structural support.

Global bonds are selling off simultaneously. The 10-year Treasury yield jumped to 4.577%. UK gilts rose 10 basis points. French and Italian bonds rose 13 basis points. German Bunds added 9. This is a coordinated global bond selloff, not a US-specific rate story.

People think he's crazy. 

But Adam O'Dell says he's already deployed 4,000 units of his solution across 14 states — and used them to power the largest supercomputer on the planet.

With Microsoft, Amazon, Google and Facebook set to spend $680 billion this year on AI data centers that can't get enough power to run, Elon's solution is about to be in extraordinary demand.

Go here now to see how he's going to do it — and get one of Adam's top picks to play it absolutely free.

Warsh's first meeting produced a 132-word statement with no forward guidance. The market has been guessing ever since. The minutes are the first window into whether the committee is as hawkish as Waller suggested, or whether brevity was masking genuine division.

Vital Knowledge's Adam Crisafulli flagged it clearly. Warsh was so opaque that the minutes could contain surprises. Powell always gave comprehensive accounts of meeting discussions. Warsh did not. Whatever is in those minutes is new information.

Four officials dissented at the meeting. Waller said the Fed's risks have completely flipped from last year. Kashkari penciled in a hike. If those views show up as a committee-wide lean in the minutes, September hike odds above 60% get institutional confirmation.

Watch the 2-year yield at 2pm. But also watch Trump for any follow-up comments from Ankara. He threatened to cut off all trade with Spain at the same NATO summit. A president declaring a ceasefire over and threatening trade wars with allies in the same press conference is not a contained story. Any follow-up comment moves markets before the minutes even drop. 

Gold is falling even as Trump calls the ceasefire over and WTI surges above $74. It is now down more than 20% since the Iran war began in late February, from a record high above $5,600 to around $4,000. The metal that should be the textbook war trade is doing the opposite.

The reason is rates. Gold generates no yield. When real rates rise, the opportunity cost of holding gold rises with them. The Fed signaling hikes has done more damage to gold than the war did good. That is a specific and important signal about where investor priorities sit right now.

It also tells you something about what the market actually believes. If traders genuinely thought the ceasefire was collapsing permanently and oil was going structurally above $100 again, gold would be rallying hard. The fact that it is not suggests the market still views the escalation as cyclical rather than structural. It is pricing another flare-up, not a permanent breakdown.

Watch gold alongside WTI today. If oil spikes but gold stays flat or falls, the market is treating the escalation as temporary and positioning accordingly. If gold finally catches a bid alongside oil, the market has changed its mind about how permanent this disruption is.

Gold diverging from oil during a war escalation is the most contrarian signal in the market right now. It tells you more about rate expectations than about geopolitical fear. Own energy for the oil spike. But the gold signal says the smart money is not yet convinced this is a permanent regime change.

It could single-handedly reshape the global order… dramatically increase U.S. power…  and trigger a massive American market boom the likes of which we haven’t seen in 75 years.

Get the details here now.

Economic Data: FOMC Minutes at 2pm ET, MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate, EIA Crude Oil and Gasoline Stocks Change

Earnings: No notable reports

Overnight: Nikkei -2.1%, Shanghai -0.49% Kospi -5.35% entering bear market, FTSE -1.4%, DAX -2.16%

Trump said the ceasefire is over. WTI is above $74. Dow futures fell more than 500 points before the open. Global bonds are selling off simultaneously. Fed minutes land at 2pm into the worst possible macro backdrop.

Two paths. Minutes are sparse and non-committal, Trump walks back the ceasefire comment, WTI fades below $72. The market finds a floor. Or minutes are explicitly hawkish, Trump doubles down in Ankara, and oil above $74 with a declared war resumption reprices every rate-sensitive and growth asset simultaneously before Friday.

SK Hynix lists Friday. Delta reports Friday. Both assumed a stable macro backdrop 48 hours ago. That assumption is gone