Last week the market sorted the AI complex into infrastructure that creates value and labor that gets displaced. Accenture (ACN) collapsed 17 percent. Apple (AAPL) said memory costs are forcing price hikes. SpaceX (SPCX) converted public equity into a $60 billion acquisition within three trading days. Industrials hit all-time highs during a hawkish Fed week.

One filter ran the entire week: spend or earn. Names that grow without burning tens of billions got bid. Names funding AI with borrowed money got marked down. That filter widened every session.

This week the data tests whether that filter survives. PCE Thursday is the inflation print that confirms or breaks the hawkish dot plot. Micron Tuesday is the memory shortage thesis in real numbers. The sort that ran all week meets the catalysts that decide whether it holds.

Here is what to watch.

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VP Vance confirmed 12 million barrels had already moved through the Strait by Thursday. Three Iranian tankers were under way before markets closed. If shipping continues to scale through the weekend, the oil unwind picks up speed. If Iran conditions the reopening or Israel escalates in Lebanon, oil bounces and every rate assumption from last week gets retested.

The market priced WTI at $74 on the assumption that the physical reopening matches the political one. Kalshi prediction markets gave Hormuz only a 57 percent chance of normalizing by August 1 as of Monday. The gap between the headline and the physical timeline is where the next oil move happens.

For spend-or-earn, this matters directly. Oil sustained below $75 brings the headline CPI run rate down materially by the next two prints. That changes the cost of capital for every name funding the AI buildout with negative cash flow. Oracle (ORCL), Microsoft (MSFT), Meta (META), and Nvidia (NVDA) all benefit from lower yields whether or not Warsh moves rates. Oil bouncing back above $85 means the dot plot was the right read all along and the spenders stay punished.

Watch Signal

Watch WTI at Sunday's open and Brent through Monday morning. A gap lower means tanker traffic is scaling. A gap higher means implementation is hitting friction. The bond market reprices off whichever direction shows up first.

Micron (MU) reports Tuesday after the close. Micron is an earner in the spend-or-earn framework. It supplies the buildout rather than funds it. The question is whether the supply scarcity is converting to pricing power.

The setup is unusually clean. Apple confirmed last week that memory costs are forcing consumer device price hikes. Deutsche Bank raised its Micron price target to $1,500 from $1,000 citing a worsening shortage. SK Hynix shipped HBM4E samples with 20 percent better power efficiency. The Kospi crossed 9,000 for the first time on Samsung and SK Hynix strength.

If management confirms HBM pricing power, raises capacity guidance, and signals tight supply through 2027, the memory trade has multi-quarter legs and the entire two-channel demand framework Apple reinforced holds. If margins disappoint despite strong demand, the shortage is real but pricing power is not. That outcome tests whether earners can actually convert demand into earnings during a hawkish Fed cycle.

Watch Signal

Watch Micron's HBM revenue mix and forward gross margin guidance. If HBM is above 30 percent of total memory revenue and gross margins guide higher, the memory thesis is durable through the entire AI buildout cycle. If either disappoints, the chip complex has another leg lower regardless of what oil does.

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Three names test the consumer this week. Each one matters because earners need spenders to spend.

FedEx (FDX) reports Tuesday after the close as the volume read on goods movement. FedEx tells you what consumers and businesses are actually shipping in real time. After Accenture's guidance cut and Kroger's margin compression last week, FedEx is the third corporate datapoint on consumer and enterprise activity in two weeks. A strong volume number suggests the consumer is still spending. A weak one suggests rate transmission is reaching durable goods faster than priced.

KB Home (KBH) reports Wednesday after the close as the homebuilder confirmation of what Lennar's guide-down signaled the prior week. KB Home is the smaller, more rate-sensitive builder. If KB Home cuts delivery guidance the way Lennar did, two consecutive homebuilders have confirmed the freeze is structural at current mortgage rates. New Home Sales the same morning provides the system-wide read.

Carnival (CCL) reports Monday as the travel demand confirmation. Carnival ran hard during the peace rally last week. The guide tells you whether the booking pipeline is real or whether the peace bid was sentiment alone.

Earnings Signal

FedEx is the volume test. KB Home is the rate-sensitivity test. Carnival is the peace-trade durability test. Three discrete reads on whether last week's rotation has staying power.

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The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index lands Thursday morning. PCE is the Fed's preferred inflation measure. Core PCE strips out food and energy and gets the most attention from the FOMC. After last week's dot plot moved toward a hike, PCE either validates the committee's read or hands the doves their first piece of real evidence.

The week's other data lands the same morning. GDP for Q1's third estimate. Durable goods orders. Personal income and spending. Initial jobless claims. All before 9 AM. Together they form the most complete macro snapshot the Fed will see before its July meeting.

Last week's CPI showed energy driving 60 percent of the monthly gain with soft core. PPI undercut that with 6.5 percent annual wholesale inflation. PCE is the tiebreaker. If core PCE comes in hot, the hawkish dot plot has data backing it through the summer. If core comes in soft, the bond market starts to question whether the dots reflect last month's data or next month's reality.

The 2-year yield reprices within thirty minutes. The cost of capital for every spend-or-earn name moves with it. PCE determines what spenders pay for capital.

Watch Signal

Watch core PCE against the prior month. Above 0.3 percent monthly means the hike narrative has data backing it. Below 0.2 percent means the bond market starts pricing the deal-driven disinflation that oil has already delivered.

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Michigan Consumer Sentiment lands Friday morning. After 28 straight days of falling gas prices and gas below $4 nationally for the first time in two months, this is the first sentiment read on whether consumers are noticing the relief.

Goods trade balance and inventories drop the same morning. Together they bracket the consumer picture heading into the July 4 holiday week.

Darden Restaurants (DRI) reports the same morning. Darden owns Olive Garden, LongHorn Steakhouse, and other casual dining concepts. Same-store sales tell you whether the consumer is still going out to eat at full menu prices or trading down. That continues the value-versus-premium consumer thread Kroger and Cracker Barrel established the prior two weeks.

Last week the market sorted the AI complex into infrastructure that creates value and labor that gets displaced. This week the data tests whether the sorting was correct.

Hormuz tests whether oil stays low enough to ease the cost of capital. Micron tests whether memory scarcity converts to margin. FedEx, KB Home, and Carnival test whether spenders still have customers. PCE tests whether the Fed's hawkish dot plot reflects the actual inflation picture or the one from a month ago.

Last week the market made the call. This week the data either confirms it or forces the sort to reverse.