The Fed settled one question last week. The bond market did not settle the other.

A weak jobs report pushed the next hike toward December. It did not tell anyone who buys 30-year debt at 5.5%.

This week answers that in public. Treasury sells $119 billion of 3-year, 10-year and 30-year debt from Tuesday to Thursday. The Fed's own record of its September hike lands Wednesday afternoon.

There is no consumer price report this week. That arrives Oct. 14.

Before Friday's opening bell, the 10-year traded near 5.19% and the 30-year near 5.58%.

Payrolls had just come in at 29,000, with unemployment at 4.2%.

CME FedWatch put an October hike near 17% shortly after the report. WTI traded near $89 and Brent just under $100.

The 2-year closed Thursday at 4.78%, down 10 basis points that day. The S&P 500 last closed at 7,666.45, also on Thursday.

SERVICES AND THE CARTEL

OPEC and its allies meet Sunday. Monday's crude open is the first market read on what they decide.

The ISM services survey lands at 10 a.m. Eastern. In August its index read 55.4, while its jobs gauge sat at 47.8, below the 50 line.

That jobs gauge now matters more. Friday's payrolls said hiring is stalling. A services survey that still shows growth with shrinking staff would back that up.

Prices matter too. Factory buyers in 16 industries paid more in September, and none paid less. Services prices show whether that spreads.

Watch Signal

Services employment is the line to read. A reading near 48 again would support the soft payrolls print. A jump above 50 would make Friday look like noise and give hawks like Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan a fresh argument.

THE FRONT END GETS ITS TEST

At 1 p.m., Treasury sells $58 billion of 3-year notes. At 1:40 p.m., it offers to buy back up to $4 billion of 2-year to 3-year debt.

The 3-year sits right where last week's repricing happened. A strong auction would confirm the market believes the Fed can wait.

Bids for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve exchange are also due. Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman speaks on regulation at 10:45 a.m. Market calendars also list New York's John Williams and Logan on Tuesday. Those appearances are not yet confirmed by their banks.

Paramount Skydance's purchase of Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) is scheduled to close. Paramount (PSKY) sold roughly $52 billion of bonds to pay for it, and some already yield above 10%.

After the close, Constellation Brands (STZ) reports. Its call is Wednesday at 8 a.m.

Watch Signal

Logan still wants "50 basis points or more." Jefferson wants time. A strong 3-year sale would show the front end siding with Jefferson's clock. A weak one would say Friday's rally ran ahead of the evidence.

THE MINUTES AND THE 10-YEAR

At 1 p.m., Treasury reopens the 10-year note with $39 billion. One hour later, the Fed releases minutes from its Sept. 15-16 meeting, where it raised rates to 3.75% to 4.00%.

That meeting came before the 10-year's run to 2002 levels and before Friday's weak jobs report. The minutes' value lies in how many officials wanted more, and how they talked about long-term yields.

Logan said last week that higher term premiums can slow the economy. If the minutes show others share that view, the Fed is letting the bond market tighten for it.

After the close, Levi Strauss (LEVI) reports, with its call at 5 p.m. Beijing's next fuel export quota decision is due after Oct. 7, according to people in the trade.

Watch Signal

The count matters. If several officials favored more hikes, December stays alive even after Friday's data. A committee comfortable letting yields work makes a 10-year above 5.2% part of the plan, not a problem for it.

THE LONG BOND

At 1 p.m., Treasury reopens the 30-year bond with $22 billion. At 1:40 p.m., it buys back at least $4 billion of 20-year to 30-year bonds.

That pairing is the week's cleanest read on long-end demand. Treasury adds supply and takes some back on the same afternoon. Recent buybacks have run below their caps, and the program's size resets at the Nov. 4 refunding.

PepsiCo (PEP) reports before the open. Its shares touched a 52-week low on Thursday. Tata Consultancy Services reports in India, the first big read on IT services since Accenture (ACN) logged 141 large bookings.

Jobless claims print at 8:30 a.m., after last week's 197,000. Freddie Mac's mortgage rate follows at noon. Last week's 7.28% captured little of the late-week drop in yields.

Watch Signal

The 30-year auction is where the term premium meets a price. Solid demand near 5.5% would say long buyers are back once the Fed steps aside. A weak sale after a dovish jobs week would say the long end's problem was never the Fed.

FUEL AND FEELINGS

Delta Air Lines (DAL) reports before the open, with its call at 10 a.m. Eastern.

Delta shows what the refined-product squeeze costs a big fuel buyer. Jet fuel is a refined product like diesel, so its price can stay high even when crude falls.

The University of Michigan posts its early October survey at 10 a.m. In September its sentiment index read 48.1. Year-ahead inflation expectations hit 4.6%, and the five-year gauge rose to 3.4%.

Watch Signal

Delta's fuel guide matters more than its quarter. A cost outlook that eases with crude says the refined-product gap is closing. One that stays high says the squeeze still sits in diesel and jet fuel, whatever WTI does.

Three conditions carry over with no date attached.

As of Friday morning, Europe had not announced a diesel release. France's call for a G7 leaders' meeting on fuel had no date. Washington's threat of a diesel export ban still hangs over that decision.

Iran's Hormuz talks have no text. Trump has called new strikes after the Nov. 3 vote "possible."

And the lowest-rated junk bonds still trade at distress spreads, above 1,000 basis points over Treasurys at midweek. Any new AI or media deal that has to borrow shows what that costs.

Sector Read

Homebuilders, banks and small caps sit closest to the auctions. Consumer staples get a separate test from PepsiCo and Constellation, after Conagra (CAG) raised prices again. Their question is whether shoppers still accept price increases. Airlines get theirs from Delta on Friday.

Last week the Fed signaled patience, and the front end believed it.

This week the long end has to show it agrees. Three auctions, two buybacks and one set of minutes all land before the next inflation print.

So read the 3-year Tuesday for trust in the Fed's clock. Read the minutes Wednesday for how the Fed views 5% yields. Then read the 30-year Thursday for the answer that matters most.

If the long bond clears cleanly, last week's high may stand as the top for now. If it stumbles with the Fed on hold, the long end is pricing debt, not policy.

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