Last week the S&P hit a record. The Nasdaq posted its longest winning streak since 2009. Oil fell more than twenty dollars from its peak. The VIX dropped into the teens.

All of it ran on one assumption. The war is ending. The ceasefire expires April 21. That is tomorrow. Before any earnings print or data release lands this week, the market has to process whether the ceasefire extends, a deal emerges, or the deadline lapses without progress.

Everything else this week runs through that filter. Here is what to watch.

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The ceasefire expires tomorrow. The first round of talks in Islamabad broke down on two points: the Strait and Iran's nuclear program. Neither is solved. A second round has not been officially scheduled.

Three outcomes are possible. An extension buys more time and oil drifts lower. A framework for talks produces the biggest relief rally of the year. A lapse without progress sends oil back above $100 and unwinds two weeks of peace pricing in a single session.

The market is long resolution into a binary event with no hedge against failure. The least-priced outcome is a lapse.

Watch Signal 

Watch WTI at the Sunday open. Below $90 means the market is pricing an extension before any official statement. Above $97 means it isn't. That level tells you more about Monday's open than anything else.

Advance retail sales land Tuesday. This is the first full month of data covering consumers living with gas above $4 and war headlines every day. Michigan sentiment told you how they felt. Retail sales tells you what they actually did.

If autos and gas receipts drive the number, that is inflation, not strength. If discretionary holds, the consumer is spending through the shock. If it pulls back, the record-low sentiment reading is already in behavior.

Consumer Signal 

Watch retail sales excluding autos and gas. A miss there builds the case that the consumer started cracking before any deal arrives. A beat keeps the resilience story alive.

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ADP lands Tuesday. Initial claims arrive Thursday. Both give a read on whether seven weeks of oil shock have started to slow hiring.

The labor market has been the one buffer holding the recession case at bay. Goldman expects the oil shock to trim payrolls by roughly 10,000 jobs per month going forward. That hasn't shown up yet. This week's data is the early look at whether March's headline strength was real or concentrated in a single sector again.

Watch Signal 

If claims tick above 220,000 and ADP misses, the labor market is starting to crack. If both hold near recent levels, the resilience narrative gets one more week of cover.

Michigan's preliminary May reading closes the week on Friday. April's preliminary came in at 47.6, the lowest in the survey's history. That was before the ceasefire. Before oil fell. Before the S&P hit records.

If the ceasefire holds and talks continue, May's reading should bounce. A move back above 55 means consumers are responding. A reading that stays below 50 despite all of that says the damage from seven weeks of war is sitting deeper than the market has priced.

Watch Signal 

One-year inflation expectations are the most important subcomponent. Below 4.5% and the Fed's transitory case gets stronger. Above 5% and the pipeline is still pressuring household decisions regardless of what diplomats say.

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This is the first week where earnings have to translate lower oil into real margin relief. Every sector is reporting. Here is where to focus.

United Airlines reports Tuesday. This is the most direct read on whether the ceasefire is actually changing airline economics. Delta's Q2 guide was built on pre-ceasefire fuel prices. United's call shows whether that math has improved. If United raises guidance on lower fuel, the airline trade extends. If it hedges, the relief is not yet reaching margins.

Tesla reports Tuesday after the close. Vehicle margins and energy exposure arrive into an oil shock the company has no meaningful hedge against. The call matters more than the quarter. Automotive gross margins and the Cybercab timeline are the two numbers.

Capital One reports Tuesday. Consumer credit is the stress test hiding inside earnings season. Delinquencies have been building for six straight quarters across auto lending. If charge-offs expand, the consumer cracking thesis gets confirmation from inside the credit stack.

D.R. Horton reports Thursday. Housing has been under pressure since mortgage rates climbed back to 6.5%. The spring selling season is the first test of whether buyers return when rates stabilize. A cut to order outlook stalls the housing recovery thesis.

Lam Research and KLA both report this week. TSMC's spending guidance last week confirmed the AI buildout is running at full speed. Lam and KLA are the bottleneck that spending flows through. Strong guidance from both confirms the equipment suppliers are the cleaner expression of the AI trade than the chipmakers themselves.

Amazon reports Thursday after the close. The fuel surcharge took effect Friday. This is the first earnings call where Amazon has to address elevated logistics costs directly. Management's language on surcharge duration is what the market will listen to most carefully.

Earnings Signal 

The template from last week holds. Beating consensus is the floor. Raising the guide is the bar. Any name that reiterates guidance into a record stock price faces the same reaction Netflix got Thursday night.

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The market spent two weeks pricing a deal that has not happened. The cost structure has spent seven weeks moving anyway.

Monday it finds out if the deal exists. If it does, the rally extends. If it doesn't, two weeks of positioning unwind into one open. Everything else this week is confirmation.