Last week the bond market faced $119 billion of new notes and bonds and took it.

This week it gets none.

Treasury's schedule shows only bill sales from Oct. 12 to 16. So if long yields move, supply is not the reason. Data, earnings or oil will be.

Three tests decide which. The big banks report Tuesday and Wednesday. September CPI lands Wednesday morning. TSMC holds its call Thursday.

About 45 minutes into Friday's session, the 10-year yield sat near 5.27% and the 30-year near 5.63%.

The S&P 500 was up 0.3% at about 7,790. The VIX sat near 15.1.

WTI traded near $91.30 and Brent near $104. Heating oil, the diesel benchmark, was down about 2% after an 8% climb on the week through Thursday. Bitcoin traded near $82,900.

Hurricane Isaias was forecast to make landfall late Friday or early Saturday. About 63% of Gulf of Mexico oil output was already shut in.

STOCKS OPEN, BONDS DON'T

Columbus Day splits the market. The NYSE and Nasdaq trade normal hours. SIFMA recommends a full close for cash bond trading, and the Federal Reserve Banks are shut.

CME futures trade and settle at normal times. There is no securities settlement Monday, so stock trades from Friday and Monday both settle Tuesday.

That puts weekend news on Isaias and Iran into stocks, oil and Treasury futures first. Cash Treasurys answer Tuesday.

The IMF and World Bank also open their annual meetings in Bangkok on Monday. Finance ministers and central bankers gather there through Oct. 18.

Watch Signal

Last Thursday, long yields fell while Brent rose 4%. If oil climbs Monday and Treasury futures sell off with it, that split has closed. If bonds hold while crude rises, it is still in force.

THE BANKS GO FIRST

JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Wells Fargo (WFC) post results around 7 a.m. Eastern. Citigroup (C) follows at 8 a.m. Goldman Sachs (GS) also reports.

The banks open a season in which analysts expect S&P 500 profits to grow about 30%. Interest income and credit reserves are the first lines to read.

Both carry more weight after last week. A steeper curve can widen lending margins. It can also squeeze borrowers. Loans quoted below 60 cents now total about $65 billion, JPMorgan strategists said. Jamie Dimon has warned that rising yields and heavy AI spending could spill into corporate credit.

Watch Signal

Reserves are the tell. Bigger provisions with steady margins would say long rates have started to cost lenders. Flat reserves would say the stress still sits with the weakest borrowers.

THE PRINT

At 8:30 a.m., the Labor Department publishes September CPI. In August, prices rose 0.4% on the month and 3.4% from a year earlier.

It is the last major inflation report before the Fed meets Oct. 27-28. St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem placed more firming in the next six to nine months but would not commit to October. A hot reading is the clearest route back to an October move. Kalshi's October hike contract sat near 18 cents early Friday.

The month gave inflation room to run. Service firms paid more for inputs in September, with ISM's prices gauge at 74.

Bank of America (BAC) reports before the open and Morgan Stanley (MS) around 7:30 a.m. ASML (ASML) reports before the U.S. open. The Fed's Beige Book follows in the afternoon. It covers late August and September, so it is the Fed's own read on whether fuel costs reached prices and hiring.

Watch Signal

Read the two-year first. It ended Thursday at 4.75%, down 8 basis points on the week. A hot CPI that lifts it sharply puts October back on the table. A print that moves only the long end would point away from the Fed and toward term risk.

ORDERS AND RECEIPTS

TSMC (TSM) holds its earnings call at 2 a.m. Eastern. Its record quarterly sales are already public. Its capital-spending outlook is what will show whether customers are still adding orders.

That answer arrives a week after OpenAI's smaller revenue figure cost Oracle about $23 billion in a day. Chips need a reason to believe the orders behind them still hold.

At 8:30 a.m., September retail sales and producer prices land together. The weekly EIA report carries the first official oil output data since Isaias.

Thursday is also settlement day for last week's 3-year, 10-year and 30-year sales. Buyers pay cash for those notes and bonds the same morning the data print. Treasury then announces next week's 20-year bond.

After the close, J.B. Hunt (JBHT) reports. It is a member of the Dow transports, which sat near bear-market territory on Wednesday.

Watch Signal

If TSMC lifts its spending plan, last week's chip selloff was about one customer's numbers. If it holds or trims, the market has to price the AI build-out on slower orders as well as costlier debt.

EXPIRY AND THE LAST WORD

Monthly stock and index options expire. The A.M.-settled S&P 500 monthlies stop trading Thursday and settle on Friday's opening prices. Expiry alone does not set direction.

Import prices print at 8:30 a.m., and the Fed releases September industrial production.

Friday is also the last day Fed officials can talk policy before their meeting. Their blackout starts Saturday, Oct. 17. Market calendars list Governor Christopher Waller, Richmond's Tom Barkin, Boston's Susan Collins and Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman this week. Not all of those dates are confirmed by the Fed.

Watch Signal

After CPI, officials have about two trading days to steer the market. If October odds jump and nobody pushes back by Friday, the silence becomes the message.

Four conditions carry over with no fixed date.

Iran's foreign minister said a reply to U.S. proposals would come within days. The blockade stays either way.

The AI borrowing pipeline has no prices yet. Broadcom's chip financing and Oracle's leasing vehicle were in early talks. Their terms will show what lenders charge now.

Private-credit exits stay queued. Barings' next tender will show whether requests keep running near double the cap.

And Gulf output has to come back. Platforms usually restart within days once they are inspected. A slow return would keep the storm in the price of oil and diesel.

Sector Read

Banks get their own numbers. Chips get TSMC. Transports get J.B. Hunt with diesel still high. Homebuilders get CPI through mortgage rates near 7.40%. Small caps, less than 2% above their correction line, get all of it at once.

Last week the long end proved it could clear supply at 5.3%. This week it has no supply to blame.

Wednesday's CPI tells the front end whether October is back. The banks tell the long end whether high rates have started to bite. TSMC tells chips whether orders still outrun the revenue doubts.

If CPI is tame, reserves stay flat and TSMC spends more, last week's relief has room to run. If CPI runs hot, the Fed has two days to answer before it goes quiet.