The week starts with bonds and oil pointing in opposite directions.

The 10-year closed Thursday at 4.96%, its first close below 5% since September. Brent settled the same day at $113.17, its highest since May. Bonds are treating oil as a drag on growth, not a spark for inflation.

The front end joined late. The 2-year fell 16 basis points to 4.65% on Thursday, even as jobless claims dropped to the fewest in three months. No Fed official moved it. The Fed has been silent since Oct. 17.

Stocks ended the week grading costs, not beats. Lam Research, Meta, IBM and Tesla all beat, and all four pointed lower the next morning. Meta's default swaps hit a record. The Nasdaq had its worst day since June.

So the new week has two scheduled tests and a set of open ones. The Fed and Treasury both speak to the front end. Oil, AI credit and crypto flows run on no clock.

Three questions are on the calendar. Three are not.

Does the Fed Confirm the Hold and Keep December Alive?

Scheduled: Fed meeting Oct. 27-28. Decision Wednesday, Oct. 28.

The Fed ends a quiet period that began Oct. 17. It is the first word from officials since the 2-year's 16-basis-point drop.

What the market assumes. No October move, and a hike in December. In a Reuters poll, 94 of 100 economists expect a hold, and all 100 see a December hike. Kalshi's October hike contract fell to 6 cents from 12 on Thursday. Its December contract slipped to 72 cents from 76.

The surprise. A statement that cools December. Thursday's front-end rally came with no Fed input. A Fed that leans the same way would confirm it. A Fed that stays hawkish would make Thursday look like a haven bid.

The signal. Kalshi's December contract against the 2-year. If December holds near 72 cents while the 2-year stays near 4.65%, the market is pricing growth risk, not a softer Fed.

Can the Front End Absorb 2-, 5- and 7-Year Supply at Lower Yields?

Scheduled: This week, around the Oct. 28 decision.

Treasury sells 2-, 5- and 7-year notes. These sales test the part of the curve that moved most on Thursday.

What the market assumes. That buyers want duration. The 20-year sold at 5.469% on Wednesday, and dealers kept only about 10%, down from 16.9% in September. It closed Thursday at 5.32%, 15 basis points below the sale.

The surprise. A note sale that needs a big concession. Soft demand already showed up once. A five-year TIPS sale drew its weakest demand since April 2025 on Thursday. A weak 2-year sale near 4.65% would say buyers chased the rally, not the level.

The signal. Dealer share. A share well above the 20-year's 10% means investors stepped back once yields fell. If the 2-year gives back Thursday's drop, the rate anchor under the rotation is gone.

Does Verizon Show the Same Pricing Problem as AT&T?

Scheduled: Verizon reports Monday, Oct. 26.

Verizon (VZ) reports after a week that hit telecom twice.

First, AT&T (T) raised its outlook and fell 6.4%. Revenue per fiber customer fell 4%. Verizon fell 2.2% and T-Mobile (TMUS) 2.5% on a day neither reported.

Then SpaceX (SPCX) was reported to be seeking space on at least 80,000 U.S. cell sites. Crown Castle (CCI) was indicated about 9% higher Friday morning. AT&T and T-Mobile were indicated about 5% lower.

What the market assumes. Revenue per customer, not the headline guide, sets these stocks.

The surprise. Verizon holding price while volume grows. That would split it from AT&T's discount problem.

The signal. Carriers against towers. The carriers are the towers' biggest tenants. If carriers keep sliding while towers hold, the market is pricing SpaceX's rent above the strain on the tenants.

Is Oil Pricing the Gulf or Washington?

Open-ended. Blockade contract settles Oct. 31. Midterms Nov. 3.

Brent rose 4% to settle at $113.17 on Thursday as Houthi forces claimed new attacks on Saudi targets. It traded near $114.60 early Friday. The White House said the U.S. will not attack Iran before the Nov. 3 vote. Polymarket's contract on the U.S.-Iran ceasefire holding through Oct. 24 rose to 92.5 cents from 86.5 cents.

What the market assumes. No U.S. strike and no quick deal. Polymarket's contract on a U.S. announcement ending the blockade by Oct. 31 nearly doubled on Monday with no statement behind it. It traded near 10.5 cents Tuesday afternoon.

The surprise. Damage to the Saudi bypass. Pipelines across Saudi Arabia and the UAE carry Gulf oil around Hormuz. A hit there would close the workaround, a risk no ceasefire contract settles on.

The signal. Brent against the 10-year. If oil climbs and yields keep falling, bonds still read crude as a growth tax. If yields rise with oil, the inflation reading is back.

Do AI's Buyers Keep Trading Like Borrowers?

Open-ended. No date set.

Meta's five-year default swaps hit a record 114.79 basis points on Thursday. Lam Research (LRCX) fell about 12%, more than Meta (META).

Meta's third-quarter capital spending of $34.91 billion topped the $32.79 billion its operations produced. Its new non-voting Class C shares give it a way to sell stock to sovereign investors.

What the market assumes. The bill matters more than the beat. Equipment makers fell harder than the spenders, and Lam, KLA (KLAC) and Applied Materials (AMAT) all closed near their lows.

The surprise. A dated stock sale. Meta's finance chief said there are no specific financing plans yet. An offering would turn a door into a supply event.

The signal. Meta's swaps against the equipment makers. If the swaps keep widening, supplier beats keep getting sold. If they ease while Lam stabilizes, Thursday was a reset, not a regime.

Do Bitcoin Funds Come Back After the Biggest Outflow Since June?

Open-ended, with a dated deadline: MSCI's final list, Nov. 11.

U.S. spot bitcoin funds swung to $636 million of outflows on Thursday, a day after $528 million of inflows. Bitcoin traded with Nasdaq futures, not its funds.

MSCI's rule barring "non-operating companies" from its global indexes still hangs over Strategy (MSTR). Its earlier simulation flagged the company. The final list comes Nov. 11, and changes take effect at the Nov. 30 close.

What the market assumes. Bitcoin is a high-beta Nasdaq trade. Strategy rose 7.5% on Wednesday and was indicated down 5.3% the next morning.

The surprise. Inflows that finally move price. On-chain estimates put the cost basis of 2025 buyers near $88,000. A rally toward that level would meet holders who may sell at breakeven.

The signal. Strategy against bitcoin. If Strategy keeps lagging into Nov. 11, the market is pricing index selling, not crypto.

The Fed gets the headline. The 2-year gets the verdict.

Thursday's 16-basis-point drop came with no Fed input and strong labor data. Wednesday's decision and this week's note sales will show whether it was a growth bet or a haven bid.

If the 2-year holds near 4.65% through both, the rotation away from AI's costliest names has a floor. If it gives the drop back, oil above $113 starts reading like inflation again.