Last week answered the question the market had been asking since February 28. What happens when the shooting stops?

Oil crashed 16% in a single session. The Dow surged 1,200 points. The S&P posted its best week since the war began. Seven straight up days. Retail investors barely showed up for any of it. The rally ran on institutional short-covering.

Both of those things are true. The tension between them is what this week has to resolve. The earnings either confirm that the March oil shock stayed on the surface. Or they show it reached consumer credit, corporate lending, and margins in ways the ceasefire can't undo. By Friday the market will know which story it is actually in.

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Before any earnings print or data release lands, the market has to price whatever Islamabad produces.

Vance, Kushner, and Witkoff sat down with Iran's delegation this morning. This is the highest-level direct meeting between the US and Iran since the 1979 revolution. Iran's team is led by parliamentary speaker Ghalibaf.

The gap is enormous. Iran wants full sanctions relief, war damages, and control of the Strait. The US wants it fully open. No conditions. Pakistan's stated goal for this round is modest. Get both sides to agree to keep talking.

The least-priced outcome is collapse. The market spent last week pricing progress. It has not priced a walkout.

Watch Signal

Watch oil futures at the Sunday night open. If WTI gaps lower, the market reads progress before any official statement. If it gaps higher, the talks fell short. Monday's cash open tells you whether the Islamabad result holds or fades.

Goldman reports Monday morning. This is the first major bank print of the quarter. It's also the first read on whether the March shock extended the dealmaking freeze that started in late 2025.

Investment banking fees are the number. The IPO market has been largely shut since the war began. If fees show the pipeline thawing, the financial sector catches a sustained bid. If they stay frozen, the ceasefire hasn't unlocked capital markets activity. Equity valuations are starting to price that recovery in. The fees will tell you if it's real.

Trading revenue should be strong. Desks had their most volatile quarter in years. The question is whether it came from client flow or proprietary risk. One is repeatable. The other isn't.

Earnings Signal

Goldman's fee revenue sets the tone for every bank reporting after it. A thaw in deal activity is the bullish read. Flat fees means the March shock paused the recovery. Watch the trading mix for quality.

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Tuesday is the most concentrated financial reporting day of the year. JPMorgan, BlackRock, Wells Fargo, and Citi all print before the bell. Bank of America and Morgan Stanley follow midweek.

JPMorgan matters most. Dimon warned in his annual letter that prolonged inflation could push rates higher. The bank built $2.2 billion in reserves heading into Q1. If loan loss provisions rise again, Dimon is backing his letter with his balance sheet. If they hold, the war damage stayed on the surface.

Credit card delinquencies are the consumer health read. Rising delinquencies alongside hot inflation data means the war showed up where the Fed can't look through it. Stable trends mean the consumer survived March.

BlackRock's report adds a different lens. Fund flows tell you where capital moved during the shock. If money left stocks for bonds, the rotation is already happening inside the world's largest asset manager.

Watch Signal

Watch JPMorgan's provisions and credit card trends Tuesday morning. That's the tell. If provisions rise and delinquencies tick higher, the consumer story changes. If both hold, the relief trade has room to run.

Thursday is the heaviest data day of the week. Advance retail sales, Philly Fed, industrial production, and initial claims all land the same morning.

Retail sales matters most. March is the first full month where consumers lived with gas above $4 and war headlines every day. Michigan sentiment already told you how they felt about it. Retail sales tells you what they actually did.

The composition matters more than the headline. If auto sales and gas receipts drive the number higher, that's inflation pushing the total. Not strength. If restaurants and electronics hold, the consumer is spending through the shock. If discretionary pulls back, the record-low sentiment reading is already translating into behavior.

Philly Fed adds a regional manufacturing read. ISM Prices Paid hit 78.3 two weeks ago. If Philly confirms that cost pressure, the transitory case for headline inflation gets harder to defend.

Consumer Signal

Watch retail sales excluding autos and gas. That's the clean read on discretionary spending. A miss there builds the case that the consumer cracked before the ceasefire arrived. A beat keeps the resilience narrative alive one more month.

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TSMC's earnings call lands Thursday morning. Q1 revenue already beat above $35 billion. The call is about what comes next. Q2 guidance above $38 billion confirms the AI hardware cycle has another leg. Below that range and the growth rate starts to flatten.

TSMC's capex plan is the most important number in the chip supply chain. The $52 to $56 billion range set in January determines capacity for the entire AI buildout. Any change reprices every chip name downstream.

Netflix reports Thursday after the close. Goldman upgraded the stock last week. Netflix collected a $2.8 billion termination fee earlier this year and returned to a standalone execution story. Ad-tier growth and price hike pass-through are the reads. The company is targeting a record operating margin above 31%.

Earnings Signal

TSMC's Q2 guidance is the AI cycle's forward indicator. Netflix's ad-tier revenue is the consumer media read. If both deliver, growth leadership reasserts over the defensives trade that has led since February.

Amazon's 3.5% fuel and logistics surcharge for third-party sellers takes effect Friday. UPS, FedEx, and USPS already moved. Amazon was the last major fulfillment network to put it in writing.

This converts the energy shock from a market event into a consumer price event. When all major platforms charge surcharges at the same time, the pass-through stops being a forecast. It becomes a line item on April invoices.

The ceasefire lowered crude. It didn't cancel the surcharge. Amazon hasn't changed the April 17 date. The cost structure locked in during the war stays locked in even if the war is ending.

Inflation Signal

If Amazon delays or reduces the surcharge before Friday, the market reads energy costs normalizing faster than expected. If it holds, the inflation pipeline stays loaded regardless of the ceasefire. Watch for a statement midweek.

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The market has been trading expectations. This week it trades evidence.

Goldman tells you whether the deal pipeline is thawing. JPMorgan tells you whether the war scarred consumer credit. Retail sales tell you whether spending cracked. TSMC tells you whether the AI cycle has legs. Amazon's surcharge tells you the cost clock is still running.

The Islamabad talks opened this morning. Major earnings season opens tomorrow. The Strait is still controlled by Iran. The surcharge lands Friday.

The market priced a ceasefire last week. This week the data starts rendering a verdict.