The new week starts after a 12% chip crash and a bond rally that the Fed has not endorsed.

The Philadelphia chip index fell 12.2% on Thursday. The S&P 500 had its worst day since April 2025, and the Nasdaq closed in a correction. The VIX jumped to near 28.

Bonds moved with stocks. The 2-year yield fell 12 basis points to 4.46% on a day claims matched a 1969 low. The 10-year closed Thursday at 4.84%, down from above 5.30% last month.

The Fed is leaning the other way. Beth Hammack said policy needs to turn restrictive. John Williams called inflation "absolutely too high." December hike pricing fell to about 70% on Thursday, from about 83% on Wednesday.

Credit stayed calm. A high-yield bond ETF slipped just 0.3% on the chip-crash day.

So the week has two dated tests. Tuesday prices inflation and long-bond demand together. Wednesday sets an index line for bitcoin's biggest corporate holder. Four bigger questions run on no clock.

Two questions are on the calendar. Four are not.

Can the 10-Year Auction Hold a Rally Built on a Selloff?

Scheduled: Tuesday, Nov. 10. October CPI and a $42 billion 10-year note sale.

Treasury sells $125 billion of notes and bonds next week at unchanged sizes. That includes $42 billion of 10-year notes Tuesday, the same day as October consumer prices. The bond market is closed Wednesday for Veterans Day.

What the market assumes. That bonds keep their haven bid. The 10-year sits near 4.84%. Treasury set these sizes when yields were higher. At Wednesday's refunding it said sizes should hold "for the next several quarters," and it dropped the words "at least." Its advisory committee wrote that larger coupon auctions "will be warranted later in FY27."

The surprise. A firm CPI print followed by a weak sale. Demand that arrives on a risk-off day can leave when stocks steady. Treasury's supply arrives on a fixed schedule.

The signal. The 10-year against 4.84%. If the auction clears weakly after a hot print, yields lose the buyer who just set them. A strong sale after a hot print would say the haven bid has depth.

Does Bitcoin Hold Its Biggest Holder's Cost Into the Index Deadline?

Scheduled: MSCI's final list, Wednesday, Nov. 11.

MSCI's rule bars "non-operating companies" from its global indexes. Its earlier simulation flagged Strategy (MSTR). Changes take effect at the Nov. 30 close.

What the market assumes. A known overhang. Bitcoin held near $76,000 early Friday, close to Strategy's average cost of about $75,450.

The surprise. A break below that cost as the list lands. Natural buyers are thinning. Keel Infrastructure (KEEL) sold its entire bitcoin treasury and now sells what it mines daily. Core Scientific (CORZ) expects to exit mining by year-end.

The signal. Strategy against bitcoin. Two more dates follow. Coinbase (COIN) chief executive Brian Armstrong's sales plan can begin Nov. 16. Trump Media (DJT) noteholders can demand up to about $1 billion in cash on Nov. 30, and the company says it may have to sell bitcoin.

Does the 2-Year Rejoin the Fed?

Open-ended. The next Fed decision is in December.

The 2-year fell to 4.46% from 4.58% on Thursday. Claims fell to 189,000 the same day.

What the market assumes. A smaller hike bet, not a pause. December hike pricing fell to about 70% on Thursday. Futures still lean toward a move.

The surprise. More officials talking like Hammack and Williams with stocks steady. Abroad, Australia and Britain both hiked this week. A Fed that keeps leaning hawkish leaves the front-end rally with little support.

The signal. The 2-year against 4.58%. A move back above it says Thursday was a sector event. A 2-year that stays near 4.46% says bonds see the slowdown stocks priced.

Is the Asian Chip Exit Finished?

Open-ended. No date set.

Taiwan's Taiex ended the week down 12.2%. Korea's Kospi fell 6.0% Friday, after 5.3% on Thursday, and a circuit breaker paused trading.

What the market assumes. That Thursday was a flush. By Friday morning, Micron (MU) and AMD (AMD) were indicated about 8% higher while Dow futures fell. That reads as positions closing, not new money.

The surprise. Foreign selling at October's pace. Foreign investors pulled a record $31.8 billion from Taiwanese stocks in October, the Institute of International Finance said. That exit started weeks before the U.S. vote.

The signal. Foreign flows in Taipei and Seoul. If they keep leaving, the chip trade is still being unwound, whatever New York's opening bounce says.

Do Data-Center Pledges Become Permit Delays?

Open-ended. Texas changes governors in January.

Texas Gov.-elect Gina Hinojosa campaigned on pausing new data centers until lawmakers pass new protections. Gov. Greg Abbott already froze state permits on Sept. 21, with no fixed end date. SemiAnalysis puts Texas near 30% of new U.S. capacity in 2028.

What the market assumes. A delay, not a cancellation. A governor's freeze can be lifted by a governor. A moratorium tied to new law lasts until lawmakers act. Capacity buyers held up. On Thursday, Microsoft (MSFT) lost 3.6% while Micron fell 17.5%.

The surprise. A pledge with a date. Democrats who campaigned on curbing data centers also won in Georgia and Ohio. Their pledges are not yet policy.

The signal. Signed leases against unleased megawatts. Riot Platforms (RIOT) rose 9.6% Wednesday on a 15-year lease, while Cipher (CIFR) fell 20.0%. A wider gap means the market is pricing permission, not demand.

Does a Cheaper Barrel Ever Reach the Fed?

Open-ended. Iran talks have no deadline.

Brent fell below $95 on Wednesday, down more than 8%. Iran called Washington's latest reply unconvincing. No deal is in hand. Brent traded near $96.31 early Thursday.

What the market assumes. Oil and the hike bet price different risks. Kalshi's December contract rose to 81 cents late Wednesday as crude fell. ISM services prices still held at 73.

The surprise. A deal that reopens Hormuz. Iran says it could reopen the strait within two days if its conditions are met. A real supply return would test whether cheaper fuel can ever pull hike odds down.

The signal. Brent against the December contract. If oil falls further and hike odds hold, the Fed case rests on jobs and services prices alone.

Last week priced who builds AI and who buys it. This week prices what bonds are worth once stocks stop falling.

Tuesday brings CPI and the 10-year sale together. Wednesday brings MSCI's list with bitcoin near Strategy's cost.

If the 10-year holds near 4.84% after both, the haven bid has buyers behind it. If it backs up while chips stay weak, the market loses the cushion it leaned on Thursday.