Last week the thirty year hit its highest level since 2004.

It got there without an inflation print, on a business survey, a soft auction and one governor's speech.

This week brings the real data.

Consumer prices land Wednesday. The factory survey lands Thursday. Payrolls land Friday. And the first of those arrives on a changed yardstick.

Our research cutoff was 11:38 a.m. Eastern Friday, so these are intraday reads, not closes.

The ten year traded near 5.21% late Friday morning and the thirty year near 5.52%. Thursday's official closes were 5.18% and 5.47%. The two year closed Thursday at 4.87%.

Futures price about a 67% chance of an October hike. The S&P 500 sat near 7,717. Brent traded near $106 and WTI near $94. The VIX was 15.34.

Friday's durable goods orders came in flat. Orders excluding transportation rose 0.3%. Yields rose anyway.

Congress has already funded the government through December 11. Every release below should arrive on time.

AI GETS A FED VOICE

Governor Lisa Cook speaks on AI and emerging technology at 1:25 p.m. Eastern.

That topic now carries rate weight. On Thursday, Richmond's Tom Barkin named AI spending as one reason inflation is lasting. He said the build-out is straining supply chains.

Monday is otherwise quiet. Treasury sells 13 and 26 week bills.

Watch Signal

Listen for whether Cook ties AI to prices. If a governor echoes Barkin, AI moves from one president's view toward a shared case for staying tight. That case would not fade with oil.

THE GOVERNOR WHO MOVED THE CURVE

Governor Michael Barr speaks on the economic outlook at 12:40 p.m. Eastern in Detroit.

Last Wednesday he said "further policy adjustments are likely to be needed." October hike odds jumped that day. Tuesday is his first outlook speech since then.

Two reports land at 10:00 a.m. The August job openings survey and the Conference Board's consumer confidence index. At 1:40 p.m., Treasury buys back up to $750 million of inflation-protected notes.

Watch Signal

Barr either repeats "likely" or softens it. Repeating it with the ten year above 5.2% would suggest the Fed is fine with the bond market doing some of the tightening. Softening it would be the first official pushback on the selloff.

A NEW RULER FOR INFLATION

At 8:30 a.m. Eastern, the government releases August consumer prices and its annual revision of the national accounts.

The revision changes how three parts of the Fed's favorite inflation gauge are priced. They are portfolio management, legal services and computer software. Economists at Wells Fargo and RBC estimate the change lowers the core rate by about 0.2 point. FinancialMarkets.com flagged it in July.

The revision reaches back to 2021, so the whole recent path moves, not just August.

Here is the trap. July's core rate was 3.3% from a year earlier. Wednesday's number could land lower on method alone. That would be a new ruler, not cheaper goods.

Conagra (CAG) reports before the open. It follows General Mills (GIS), which warned that its costs climb to 6% late in its year.

Micron (MU) reports after the close, with its call at 4:30 p.m. Eastern. It guided to $50 billion of quarterly revenue and about $10 billion of capital spending. The stock was worth about $1.2 trillion at Friday's cutoff.

Treasury also sets the size of Thursday's long bond buyback that day. And Wednesday is quarter-end. We have no evidence on which way any rebalancing runs, and we will not guess.

Watch Signal

Read the monthly core change, not the yearly drop. A monthly gain of 0.3% or more on the new method keeps the hike case intact. A soft month on top of the revision would be the first real data case for holding in October.

For Micron, the forward guide matters more than the quarter. It sells the memory the AI build-out runs on, and it is spending heavily into 5% yields.

FACTORIES, AND THE LONG END AGAIN

The ISM manufacturing survey lands at 10:00 a.m. Eastern. Last week's flash survey put its factory index at 57.0, up from 53.9. ISM is the check on that jump.

Jobless claims print at 8:30. Last week's 197,000 gave the Fed no reason to wait.

At 1:40 p.m., Treasury buys back bonds maturing in 10 to 20 years, at least $4 billion. The last buyback in that range filled about $5.2 billion of a $6 billion cap. Thursday is also when Treasury announces the ten year and thirty year auctions for the following week.

Nike (NKE) reports after the close, around 4:15 p.m. Eastern. The stock trades near its lowest level in more than a decade.

Watch Signal

Watch the ISM prices index. Last week's flash survey showed the steepest input cost rise in four years. If ISM confirms it, fuel is feeding factory prices again, and Wednesday's softer ruler gets overruled by Thursday.

PAYROLLS

September payrolls land at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. August added 162,000 jobs and the jobless rate held at 4.1%.

This is the print the long end has not seen yet. Last week's selloff ran on surveys and speeches.

Watch Signal

A strong print confirms what the bond market already priced, and the ten year has little reason to fall back below 5%. A weak one would land more than three weeks before the October 27 to 28 meeting. That would be the first real crack in the case the Fed built last week.

Three conditions carry over with no date attached.

Brent sat about $12 above WTI through Friday morning. The phased Hormuz plan still has no text, and the transit counts will show a real first stage before any statement does.

Seven OPEC+ producers meet again on October 4, the Sunday after this week closes. A White House review of a short-term diesel export ban also remains open.

And the Oracle (ORCL) data center loan last traded below 90 cents. Any move there tells lenders what the next AI campus costs to finance.

Sector Read

Rate-sensitive names paid for last week's move. This week they get the data that decides whether it lasts. Homebuilders, utilities and small caps feel Friday's print first. The AI leaders have so far traded on their own news, not on yields.

Last week the long end moved on its own. It did not need an inflation print to do it.

This week it gets one, and the number comes with an asterisk. The core rate may fall because the ruler changed, not because prices did.

So read it carefully. Then read ISM's prices line on Thursday. Then read payrolls on Friday.

If all three run hot, the thirty year has room to hold above 5.5%. If the new method flatters Wednesday and the jobs data cracks Friday, the October hike stops looking like a base case.

We will be in your inbox Monday morning with the map.