The week had two halves.

On Wednesday, the day after Democrats won both chambers of Congress, the Dow rose 3.0%. It was its best day since April 2025. The VIX fell to about 16.6.

On Thursday, the S&P 500 fell 4.3%, its worst day since April 2025. The Nasdaq closed in a correction. The VIX jumped to near 28.

Chips took both hits. The Philadelphia chip index fell 3.1% on the Dow's big day and 12.2% the next.

Bonds moved with stocks, not with the data. Jobless claims matched their lowest since 1969, and the 2-year yield still fell 12 basis points. The 10-year ended Thursday at 4.84%, from 4.93% a week earlier.

Oil fell hard. Brent dropped below $95 on Wednesday. December hike odds rose that same day.

By Thursday's close, the market had decided three things. The AI trade now splits between those who build capacity and those who buy it. Stock volatility now feeds Fed pricing. And a cheaper barrel no longer talks the Fed down.

Claims Hit a 1969 Low. The 2-Year Fell Anyway.

Jobless claims fell to 189,000 on Thursday, matching their lowest level since 1969. The 2-year yield fell to 4.46% from 4.58%. The 10-year fell 6 basis points to 4.84%. It was above 5.30% last month.

Hike pricing followed stocks, not claims. Fed funds futures put a December hike near 70% during Thursday's session, down from about 83% on Wednesday.

Fed officials did not move with it. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said Thursday that policy needs to turn restrictive. On Friday morning, New York Fed President John Williams called inflation "absolutely too high."

Abroad, the hikes kept coming. Australia raised its rate to 4.85% on a 6-3 vote. The Bank of England raised to 4%, its first increase since 2023.

Treasury kept auction sizes unchanged at its refunding. It now expects to hold them "for the next several quarters," and it dropped the words "at least." It nearly doubled planned buybacks to up to $70 billion.

Futures still lean toward a hike. This was a smaller bet, not a pause. For rate traders, stock volatility has become a second input alongside the labor data.

The Selloff Was Fast, Global and Thin on Credit Stress.

Thursday's chip drop was worse than any session of the April 2025 tariff selloff. Micron (MU) fell 17.5% and Sandisk (SNDK) 22.3%. AMD (AMD) fell 17.3%, two days after guiding fourth-quarter revenue to about $17 billion.

Asia went further. Korea's Kospi fell 5.3% on Thursday and 6.0% on Friday, when a circuit breaker paused trading. Japan's Nikkei fell 6.0% Friday. Taiwan's Taiex ended the week down 12.2%.

That exit started before the vote. Foreign investors pulled a record $31.8 billion from Taiwanese stocks in October, the Institute of International Finance said. Korean stocks lost $14.6 billion.

Credit barely moved. A widely traded high-yield bond ETF slipped 0.3% on Thursday.

By Friday morning, Nasdaq-100 futures were up 1.4% while Dow futures fell 0.9%. Micron and AMD were indicated about 8% higher, and Thursday's better performers were lower. That is what a pair unwind looks like, not fresh buying.

A 12% chip drop with a 0.3% credit move reads as positioning, not default risk.

Buyers of AI Capacity Beat the Sellers of It.

The split showed up on the up day first. On Wednesday, Microsoft (MSFT) rose 6.7% and Amazon (AMZN) 6.1%. Vistra (VST) lost 13.9%, Quanta Services (PWR) 11.7% and CoreWeave (CRWV) 9.9%.

It held on the down day. On Thursday, Micron fell 17.5% while Microsoft lost 3.6% and Alphabet (GOOGL) 2.2%.

Permission is the new risk. Texas Gov.-elect Gina Hinojosa campaigned on pausing new data centers. SemiAnalysis puts Texas near 30% of new U.S. capacity in 2028. Democrats who campaigned on curbing data centers also won in Georgia and Ohio. Their pledges are not yet policy.

Signed leases held up. Riot Platforms (RIOT) rose 9.6% on Wednesday with 910 megawatts leased for 15 years. Cipher (CIFR) fell 20.0%.

Costs ran the same way. Apple (AAPL) guided its margin lower on memory costs. Qualcomm (QCOM) cited wafer and memory costs. Yet the memory makers fell about twice as far as Qualcomm on Thursday.

Memory makers earn most when supply is tight. A slower build-out hits their prices first. The tape is betting that scarcity pricing gives way before platform demand does.

Oil Fell Below $95. The Hike Bet Rose.

U.S. crude settled down 7.1% at $96.73 on Monday. On Wednesday, Brent traded below $95, down more than 8%. It had not closed below $100 since late September.

The Fed bet went the other way. CME FedWatch put a December hike near 76% on Monday, from about 73% Friday. Kalshi's December contract rose to 81 cents late Wednesday, from about 75 Tuesday evening.

The activity data carried it. ISM production hit 59, the highest since November 2021. ADP showed 86,000 private jobs, above forecasts. ISM prices paid fell to 75.2, and services prices eased to 73.

The war bets broke from crude too. Polymarket settled 10 Iran ceasefire contracts as "No" after U.S. officials described strikes on Qeshm Island. Oil did not follow the contracts.

Gold rose about 3% early Wednesday as the dollar index hit a one-month low.

The December case now rests on activity, not input costs. Cheaper fuel helped airlines. United Airlines (UAL) rose 8.0% on Wednesday. It did not talk the Fed down.

AI Raised Money With Stock. The Stock Paid the Price.

At its Oct. 28 investor day, Oracle (ORCL) capped new raises through fiscal 2030 at $20 billion. On Monday it filed to sell $10 billion of stock and $10 billion of notes. The stock fell 8.9%.

The stock priced at $116, below Monday's $119.10 close. The notes carry 7% to 8.65% coupons, 2.4 to 3.35 points over Treasurys. Oracle then rose 5.9% while a 2066 Oracle bond fell more than a point.

Marvell Technology (MRVL) agreed to buy Lumentum (LITE) for 4.5 Marvell shares apiece. The companies valued that near $1,132. Marvell's slide cut it to about $771 by Monday's close.

AMD's quarter showed the same strain inside the business. Free cash flow fell 64% as inventories rose about $3 billion. The stock traded up 6.3% Wednesday, then closed up 1.0%.

Paper is the cheapest currency until the stock falls. This week, the price of AI capital showed up in offer discounts and bond coupons.

Crypto's Plumbing Got Tested From Every Side.

Binance reopened withdrawals Sunday. Customers pulled a net $3.64 billion in the first nine and a half hours. Its reserve proof covered 10 tokens. The Oct. 1 report covered 55.

U.S. spot bitcoin funds lost $399 million Monday, after $643 million Friday. BlackRock's fund lost $405 million, more than the whole category. That two-day exit roughly doubled the $516 million lost in all of October.

Bitcoin climbed above $80,000 on Wednesday, then fell nearly 6% to below $76,000 on Thursday. Strategy's (MSTR) coins cost about $75,450 on average.

The miners stepped back. Keel Infrastructure (KEEL) sold its entire bitcoin treasury and now sells what it mines daily. Its stock fell 21.7% Thursday.

The rules moved too. A federal judge let single-stock perpetual futures keep trading on Kalshi and Coinbase's (COIN) exchange. She also found a challenger likely to win its claim that the CFTC lacked the power to approve them.

One fund drove the outflow, and miners turned sellers. Bitcoin now sits a few percent above the biggest corporate holder's cost, with fewer natural buyers behind it.