Last Saturday the long end set the price.

This week it pushed that price to levels last seen in 2002. Then the front end walked away.

By Friday morning, a weak jobs report had pulled the 10-year back to where the week began. The next Fed hike moved toward December.

Monday opened on President Trump's rejection of Iran's offer, and the S&P 500 fell 0.8%.

Tuesday, New York Fed President John Williams saw "no need for urgency." Wednesday, core inflation cooled and the 10-year closed the quarter at 5.29%. Thursday, it touched about 5.34% and reversed. Friday, payrolls rose just 29,000.

Through Thursday's close, the S&P 500 was down 1.0% for the week. The Nasdaq Composite lost 0.7%, the Dow 1.7% and the Russell 2000 1.1%.

Before Friday's opening bell, S&P 500 futures were up about 0.8% and Nasdaq 100 futures about 1.2%.

Six themes ran the tape.

The long end reached 2002. The world came with it.

The 10-year Treasury yield closed Wednesday at 5.29%, its highest close since 2002. On Thursday it touched about 5.34%. The 30-year reached about 5.68%.

Britain's 30-year gilt yield hit 6.07%, above 6% for the first time since 1998. France's 10-year premium over Germany hit about 1.33 points, the widest since May 2012. The euro fell to about $1.123 alongside its bonds.

Then the curve split. Through Thursday, the two-year yield fell 3 basis points on the week. The 30-year rose 12.

A real 10-year yield near 2.9% leaves implied inflation near 2.4 points. That suggests investors want more pay to hold long debt itself, not mainly higher inflation.

After the jobs report, the 10-year traded near 5.17%, about flat for the week. The 30-year was still about 6 basis points higher.

The Read

This week the long end led a global selloff while hike odds fell. Long yields are pricing more than the next meeting. A patient Fed alone does not bring them down.

October came off the table.

The case for waiting arrived in pieces. Core PCE prices rose 3.0% from a year earlier, cooler than forecast. On Thursday, Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said the Fed's judgment "may take more time."

Friday's report did the rest. Payrolls rose 29,000, about a third of what forecasters expected. Unemployment rose to 4.2%. Revisions cut 60,000 jobs from July and August, and July now shows a loss. Wages rose 3.0% from a year earlier.

CME FedWatch put an October hike near 17% after the report. A week earlier it was about 64%.

Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan still says rates need to rise "an additional 50 basis points or more."

The Read

The fight is no longer about October. It is about how far rates go. A softer job market buys Jefferson his time. It does not answer Logan's number.

Crude eased. Diesel became a policy call.

WTI fell about 4% on the week, to near $88.50 early Friday. Brent traded under $100.

Thursday ran the other way. Chinese refiners suspended fuel exports "until further notice," according to people briefed on the decision. Brent rose nearly 5% on Thursday. Heating oil, the U.S. diesel benchmark, fell 0.6%.

Washington supplied the other half. The U.S. warned it could stop exporting diesel unless Europe freed up more of its own, a European Commission spokesperson said. Washington wants 120 million barrels released over six months, according to a person in a European capital. EU officials were meeting Friday.

Dated Brent, the price for cargoes loading soon, settled near $121 on Wednesday.

Watch Signal

Futures are pricing relief. Cargoes are not. A stock release can cap a price for weeks. It does not add refining capacity. The $10 gap between Brent and WTI is where Europe's squeeze shows first.

The war risk got a date.

By Thursday, Trump called Tehran's Hormuz proposal "simply not enough." Asked about bombing Iran after the midterms, he said it was "possible."

The vote is Nov. 3, not Nov. 5 as two of our editions this week said.

The U.S. is sending a third carrier group and up to 10,000 troops, due by the end of November.

That window sits on the bond calendar. The Fed meets Oct. 27-28. Treasury details its borrowing plans on Nov. 4.

The Read

A full campaign looks unlikely before the vote. That caps the oil premium for now and fattens the tail after it. A supply shock and fresh Treasury supply could land in the same week.

AI sales got paid. AI borrowers got charged.

Micron (MU) reported $54.23 billion of quarterly revenue, up from $11.32 billion a year earlier. It guided to $61.5 billion, above the roughly $57 billion expected. Options had priced a move of about 7%. The stock closed Thursday up about 3%.

Accenture (ACN) logged a record 141 bookings of $100 million or more. It closed up 15.8%.

Credit told a different story. Bonds rated CCC traded 1,007 basis points over Treasurys on Wednesday, the widest since March 2023. Low-rated AI debt sales hit $88 billion this year, per Goldman Sachs, competing for the same buyers.

With one session left in the quarter, the S&P 500 was up 2.82% and its equal-weight version was down 1.67%.

The Read

Stocks pay for scarce parts and signed demand. Credit charges anyone who must borrow to build. Last Saturday, Oracle's delay notice showed the bill. This week the bottom of junk priced it.

The household got the bill.

Freddie Mac's 30-year mortgage rate jumped to 7.28% from 7.03%, above every weekly reading of the prior year. On a $400,000 loan, it adds about $68 a month.

Consumers now expect 6.1% inflation over the next year, the Conference Board said. Its confidence index fell to 81.9. For the first time in the question's four years, more people called their finances bad than good.

Nike (NKE) guided fiscal 2027 earnings to $1.15 to $1.35 a share, against about $1.66 expected. Greater China revenue fell 22%. The shares fell about 9% after hours. Conagra (CAG) sold 2.1% less volume and is raising prices again.

Carnival (CCL) went the other way, with record 2027 bookings.

The Read

Last week's split held. Carnival's customers keep booking. Nike and Conagra are meeting higher costs with lower volume. Friday's report added the missing piece. Hiring is cooling too.

Here is what the week settled.

The long end can rise without the Fed. It hit 2002 levels while hike odds fell, and Britain and France went with it. October is close to off the table. Diesel moves on government choices. AI demand still gets paid, while weak borrowers pay more.

Here is what the week did not settle.

Thursday's reversal could be a turn or a pause. Logan's extra 50 basis points has no answer yet. Europe has not released its diesel. And the war risk now sits on Nov. 3, days after the Fed meets and a day before Treasury's borrowing plans.

Last week the long end set the price. This week the Fed stepped back, and the 30-year still sat higher than it started.