The S&P gained on the week. The Dow finished green. The Nasdaq recovered most of its prior week's losses. All of it happened while Oracle (ORCL) reported negative free cash flow on record sales, PPI hit its highest annual rate since 2022, and the US struck Iran for the second straight night.

One filter ran the tape all week: spend or earn. Names that grow without burning tens of billions got bid. Names funding AI with borrowed money got marked down. A single Trump post Thursday afternoon moved more capital than five days of earnings, inflation data, and escalation headlines combined.

Here are the six things that actually drove the tape.

$7.7 billion.

Spent on AI infrastructure — in a single quarter.

Not chips. Not software. Power infrastructure.

The filing shows $23.85 billion in servers. $14 billion in construction in progress. And one glaring dependency — the company that builds the equipment to actually turn it all on.

Without this hardware, Colossus doesn't run. The $1.25 billion Anthropic pays every month stops flowing. The entire AI empire goes dark.

The stock is still trading like nobody's read the filing.

Dylan Jovine has — and he's giving away the name free.

See the S-1's most critical dependency

Oracle reported record sales, record cloud growth, and a backlog of $638 billion. The stock fell nine percent. The reason: $70 billion in planned capex next year, another $40 billion fundraise, and free cash flow deeply in the red.

Three signals this week delivered the same message. Broadcom (AVGO) beat and sold on the Google-MediaTek revelation. Super Micro Computer (SMCI) raised $7 billion and lost more than a quarter of its value in two days. Oracle proved demand is real and got punished for what it costs to meet it.

Coca-Cola (KO) and TJX (TJX) hit all-time highs on the same session Oracle fell eight percent. That is not a sector rotation. That is a regime change. Spend or earn ran every session and widened every day.

Investor Signal

Oracle has $638 billion in backlog against $67 billion in annual sales. Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), and Meta (META) are running the same equation. If Oracle's model cracks under funding pressure, the market asks the same question of all of them.

Thursday afternoon Trump cancelled planned strikes on Iran and said a deal was in "final shape." The Dow jumped 930 points. The Nasdaq rallied more than two and a half percent. Oil fell to its lowest level since April.

The week had been five days of escalation and reversal. Buy peace, sell conflict, repeat. What changed Thursday is that oil broke below $87 and held. WTI below $85 on a signed deal resets the Fed's inflation math for the second half. That is the specific condition the bond market has been waiting for all spring.

The market is no longer trading the war. It is trading the probability of ending it.

Watch Signal

Watch Brent at Monday's open. A signed deal over the weekend means energy names give back the war premium built since February. Rate-sensitive names get their first real opening in months.

For a moment…

Forget about Trump’s ties to Israel.

Forget about reports of Iran’s nuclear program.

Because my research has led me to believe we’re risking World War 3 with Iran for a completely different reason.

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SpaceX (SPCX) priced at $135 and started trading Friday in the largest IPO in history. The $75 billion raise, combined with Alphabet's (GOOGL) $85 billion equity offering the prior week, put $160 billion in new AI equity supply into the market over three weeks.

Retail investors sold chip names on a net basis for two straight days, the first time that happened since early Covid. The most-sold names were Micron (MU), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Marvell Technology (MRVL), and Apple (AAPL). The selling was mechanical. It stopped the moment SpaceX priced.

The tell landed in gold. Gold fell 24 percent from its January high by Thursday. Capital that had parked in safe-haven assets during peak war anxiety rotated toward the biggest IPO of the year. Public Storage (PSA) gaining seven percent Friday confirmed the rate-relief trade is forming as oil falls.

Execution Bias

The names sold to fund SpaceX get bought back as the book closes. The more durable question is whether the window stays open for Anthropic and OpenAI. SpaceX holding above $135 on debut day is the answer.

Monday the KOSPI triggered a circuit breaker to the downside. Thursday it triggered one to the upside. Four trading days. Samsung swung from a double-digit rout to a double-digit gain. The index has roughly doubled this year on two stocks. That concentration produces circuit breakers in both directions in the same week.

The more durable observation came from Bank of America, which double-upgraded Intel (INTC) this week, skipping neutral entirely. The thesis: agentic AI runs on CPUs, not just GPUs. AI agents executing tasks across operating systems and devices favor Intel's architecture over pure GPU compute. If correct, the next leg of the AI hardware cycle has a different leader than the last one.

Watch Signal
Watch whether Intel holds its Friday gains into next week. That is the specific confirmation of the agentic CPU thesis. The KOSPI tells you how crowded the old thesis is. Intel tells you whether there is a new one.

But one little-known statistic suggests the entire sector could be on the verge of a massive collapse.

Warren Buffett once called it “the best single measure of valuations.”

Today, that indicator is flashing far above where it stood before the Dot-Com crash.

If this signal proves right, many AI favorites could fall hard.

See the warning sign and what investors should consider doing now.

CPI came in at 4.2 percent annually, exactly as expected. Core was soft. Energy drove 60 percent of the monthly gain. Gas was up 41 percent year over year. The Fed got a print that confirmed the problem and solved nothing.

Then PPI landed Thursday. Producer prices rose 1.1 percent in a single month against a 0.7 percent estimate. The 12-month rate hit 6.5 percent, the fastest since 2022. When PPI runs at that rate, more consumer price increases are coming. They just have not arrived yet.

The hawks got PPI. The doves got one soft core CPI reading. That is not a balanced fight heading into Warsh's first FOMC on June 16. The ECB hiked 25 basis points this week, its first increase since 2023. Same oil shock. The ECB could act because energy drove its headline. The Fed cannot because core stayed soft. Same input. Opposite constraints.

Watch Signal

Watch the two-year yield Monday morning. Above 4.15 percent means the hike narrative survived the peace rally. Below it means the bond market is pricing the Iran deal and rate-sensitive names get room.

Adobe (ADBE) beat revenue estimates and raised full-year guidance Thursday night. The stock fell six percent after hours. The reason: CFO Dan Durn announced he is leaving June 15 to become CFO of Marvell Technology (MRVL).

Whether intentional or not, the move reinforces where capital markets are assigning value today. Marvell is up 230 percent this year. Adobe is down 37 percent. A senior executive at one of the most valuable software companies in the world just moved to a chip firm. The market noticed.

Adobe answered the revenue question. The CFO answered a different one. The "AI eats software" thesis did not break this week. It got a very specific data point.

Investor Signal

The question for software in the second half: can AI features drive new revenue faster than free AI tools eat the core? Adobe proved it can grow. It could not prove the multiple is safe. That gap is the trade.

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The week sorted the AI complex more clearly than any week this year. Names that supply the buildout held. Names that fund it with negative cash flow got repriced. Peace hope did more work Thursday afternoon than five days of data.

Warsh meets June 16. The Iran deal may or may not be signed. SpaceX started trading. The largest IPO in history priced into a market deciding whether AI appetite has a ceiling.

For three years, investors rewarded AI exposure. Last week they demanded proof of earnings. This week they demanded proof of cash. The bar keeps moving. The question for the second half is whether the buildout can clear it.