The S&P 500 fell 1.04% to 6,837.75, putting the index back into the red for 2026. The Dow dropped 821 points. The Russell 2000 gave back 1.61%. Three forces hit at once: the IBM collapse, a Citrini Research report naming AI victims across sectors, and Trump's 15% Section 122 tariff taking effect at 12:01 a.m. today.

IBM (IBM) fell 13%, its worst day since October 2000. The stock is down 27% in February, on pace for its worst month since 1968. DoorDash (DASH) and American Express (AXP) each dropped 6.5%. CrowdStrike (CRWD) fell nearly 10%.

Bonds rallied hard. The 10-year yield fell to 4.03%, a three-month low. Gold pushed above $5,150. The VIX jumped 10% to 21.01. The dollar weakened, which cuts against a pure risk-off read. A real growth scare sends the dollar higher, not lower.

Futures this morning show S&P up 0.2% and Nasdaq up 0.3%. Consumer Confidence hits at 10 a.m., the first read on how people feel since the tariff chaos started. The State of the Union is tonight.

Trade Implication 

A miss below 84 on confidence confirms the growth-scare read and extends the Treasury bid. A beat near 90 gives the bounce legs into Nvidia on Wednesday. Watch rate-linked sectors (XLU, XLRE) on any further yield drop.

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The shift on Monday was that AI fears moved from hype risk to job-loss risk. Anthropic said Claude Code can update COBOL. That hits the stickiest business in enterprise tech. IBM's mainframe revenue survives because leaving is too costly. If AI tools cut that cost by 80%, the moat breaks.

The Citrini report pushed the same logic across sectors. Firms monetizing manual processes or legacy integration now face multiple compression. Multiples fall before revenue does.

The tariff framework broke, and nothing replaced it

The Supreme Court struck down IEEPA tariffs on Friday. Trump put up Section 122 tariffs, raised them to 15% by Saturday. Section 122 has a hard cap: 150 days, 15% max. This is a patch, not a plan. Trump warned countries not to "play games" with the ruling. Europe froze trade talks. Firms cannot plan when the rules might shift every 150 days.

There is also the refund question. Tariffs paid under IEEPA may need to come back. Estimates run from $130 to $200 billion.

Execution Bias 

AI risk drags legacy names (IBM, DASH, AXP) and lifts the builders (NVDA, AVGO). Tariff chaos hurts global firms and helps domestic ones. Watch Constellation Energy (CEG) earnings today. The AI build needs power. CEG sits at the crossroads of both themes.

Financials were the worst sector, down more than 3%. KKR (KKR) fell 9%. Blackstone (BX) fell 7% after activist bids targeted Blue Owl funds.

The split within tech was the real signal. Legacy software names got hit hardest. Chip names held up. Nvidia (NVDA) closed down about 1%, modest next to the wreckage. A software ETF lost 4.8%, a bigger drop than the Nasdaq itself. The market still wants to own AI builders while selling AI victims.

Breadth was ugly. Losers beat winners by more than 3 to 1 on the NYSE. That kind of washout often leads to a short-term bounce.

Execution Bias 

Legacy services and capital-light financials remain vulnerable if disruption fear spreads. If Monday was the flush, buy the names that dropped on fear, not facts. Home Depot (HD) reports before the bell. It has no AI risk and full consumer exposure. A clean read on whether the mood is as bad as the tape says.

That puts the deadline around late July. The White House has five months to get Congress to pass a new tariff law or lose the leverage. The EU paused trade talks and asked for "full clarity" on U.S. plans.

The State of the Union tonight could change the picture. If Trump lays out a trade bill, markets get a frame to price against. If the speech stays vague, the doubt stays. Gold above $5,150 is not just a fear trade. China has bought gold for 15 straight months. That is a structural bid.

Investor Signal 

Farm and factory exporters with China ties (ADM, DE, CAT) feel the tariff gap most. If the State of the Union names a trade plan, those stocks move first. If not, the bond bid grows into the end of the week.

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The Street expects $65.7 billion in revenue, up 67% year over year, at $1.53 per share. Polymarket puts the odds of a beat at 95%. The beat is priced. What is not priced is the guide and the tone on three things. First, the Blackwell and Rubin chip pipeline. Second, China. Third, gross margins. Margins fell from 76% to 69.5% over the past year. If they keep falling, the "AI hardware is getting cheap" story gains force at the worst time.

China is binary. Nvidia has built zero China sales into this quarter. If Huang hints that sales can resume, that is pure upside. He called China a $50 billion per year market last August.

IBM just showed that AI can gut old-line tech. If that fear is real, it is bullish for the firms that build the tools. Nvidia's report is where the market tests that logic.

Edge Setup 

Options price an 8-10% move. If the Q1 guide tops $71.5 billion, chip names (AVGO, AMD, MRVL) and power plays (CEG, VST, OKLO) rally with it. If the guide falls short, capex names sell first: SMCI and DELL. Monday's shift into Treasuries and gold picks up speed.

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The market is now testing whether AI spending can expand without destroying legacy revenue pools.

Consumer Confidence at 10 a.m. shows whether the public feels the same doubt the bond market is pricing. The State of the Union tonight shows whether the tariff mess gets a real plan or stays ad hoc.

If confidence tops 90 and the speech lays out a trade agenda, the bounce holds into Nvidia. If confidence misses and the speech is thin, sellers get a green light before the biggest print of the quarter.

Home Depot this morning is the early tell. It trades on the consumer and the domestic mood. If HD holds, the selloff was about AI and tariffs. If HD drops too, the problem runs deeper.