TQ Morning Briefing

Markets Regain Balance as Credit Scares Mellow and China Decelerates

From the T&Q Desk

Stocks closed last week on firmer footing after a volatile stretch that tested confidence across banks, tech, and global policy. The S&P 500 and Dow eked out modest weekly gains, recovering from midweek losses sparked by fears of rising credit risk among regional banks.

The rebound came as earnings from Fifth Third Bancorp and other financials helped offset shockwaves from Zions Bank’s disclosure of a $50 million charge-off tied to suspect commercial loans.

Traders described the week as a “stress test in miniature.” The regional-bank index dropped more than 6 percent Thursday before clawing back half that loss on Friday. Broader benchmarks steadied as evidence mounted that most credit issues remain isolated. 

Large banks continued to post better-than-expected results, with 86 percent of early S&P 500 reporters beating estimates and aggregate earnings growth tracking above 13 percent year-on-year.

Rate expectations also steadied. The 10-year Treasury yield ended the week at 4 percent after an early slide on risk aversion, and futures markets now fully price a quarter-point Fed cut at the October 29 meeting. 

The dollar strengthened into the weekend while gold, after nine straight weekly advances, slipped back below $4,300 an ounce—its first meaningful pullback in two months.

AI-linked optimism remained the bright spot. Robust demand for semiconductor and cloud infrastructure lifted tech sentiment as ASML and TSMC reported record quarters and Oracle guided higher on AI-driven projects. 

Investors continue to treat artificial intelligence as the market’s structural growth engine, even as valuations test historical extremes.

The week’s other pivot came from Washington. President Trump softened his trade rhetoric toward Beijing, calling his own 100 percent tariffs “not sustainable” and confirming plans to meet with Xi Jinping in South Korea in the coming weeks. That shift helped temper market tension after months of escalating tariff threats.

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Word Around the Street

Futures are pointing higher to start the week, helped by easing trade tensions and cautious optimism around earnings. 

Overseas markets set a constructive tone. Japan’s Nikkei jumped over 3 percent to a record high after a new coalition agreement positioned pro-stimulus leader Sanae Takaichi to become prime minister. 

European equities followed Asia higher, with the FTSE up 0.4 percent and Frankfurt’s DAX adding over 1 percent.

The market mood was further lifted by Trump’s weekend comments downplaying the durability of his own tariff hikes and confirming an upcoming meeting with Xi Jinping—signs that the White House may be looking for an offramp in the trade standoff.

Gold continues to march higher, near $4,270 an ounce, while oil trades around $57 a barrel. The 10-year Treasury yield sits at 4.0 percent.

With earnings season in full swing, investors will focus today on results from Zions Bancorp after the close, along with reports later this week from Procter & Gamble and Coca-Cola for clues on consumer resilience. Netflix headlines tomorrow’s tech earnings slate.

The macro calendar remains thin as the government shutdown delays major data releases, leaving markets to trade in a bit of a vacuum. Volatility remains low but fragile, one headline away from reignition.

Global Policy Watch

China’s economy expanded 4.8% in the third quarter, its slowest pace in a year. The result met expectations but exposed a widening gap between export strength and domestic weakness. Retail sales grew only 3% while property investment fell nearly 14%, deepening a downturn that continues to weigh on sentiment.

Analysts see the economy leaning ever more heavily on industrial output, up 6.5% year-on-year, and exports, which rose despite the tariff standoff.

Beijing’s policymakers, meeting this week to outline the next five-year plan, face a familiar dilemma: stimulate consumption or double down on high-tech manufacturing. Most expect renewed investment incentives for semiconductors and EVs, even as the property market drags. 

Goldman Sachs said the country remains on track for its 5% annual target, but warned that “incremental and targeted easing” will be needed to maintain employment and confidence into next year.

In Washington, Fed officials are preparing for the October 29 meeting without fresh data, relying on private surveys and credit metrics to gauge activity. A quarter-point cut remains the consensus expectation.

Trade Winds & Global Shifts

Latin America policy has blurred the line between counter-narcotics and regime change, with U.S. strikes on Caribbean drug vessels and suspended aid to Bogotá widening rifts across the hemisphere.

At the same time, Beijing’s delicate balancing act is on full display. China’s 4.8 percent growth and surging exports mask deep domestic fragility: a property bust, sliding retail sales, and deflationary pressure that has forced Beijing to lean harder on industrial policy. 

The coming meeting between Vice Premier He Lifeng and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in Malaysia will test whether trade channels can reopen before Trump and Xi meet in South Korea. 

Markets view the shift in tone, Trump calling tariffs “not sustainable,” as an opening for détente, though few expect structural agreement before year-end.

Europe, meanwhile, is breathing easier. The euro has stabilized after France’s downgrade scare, and energy prices are easing as shipping bottlenecks clear. Yet investors remain wary that any flare-up, from Baltic tensions to another strike in Antwerp, could quickly undo the calm.

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D.C. in the Driver’s Seat

Washington’s paralysis continues to define the domestic backdrop. The shutdown has entered its third week with no legislative progress, freezing data releases and stretching agencies to emergency limits. 

Prediction markets now assign better-than-even odds that this becomes the longest closure in U.S. history. The political optics are deteriorating by the day: unpaid workers, idled contractors, and missing economic reports have left investors flying blind.

Behind the scenes, Fed officials are increasingly framing this month’s expected rate cut as insurance against fiscal dysfunction rather than a direct response to inflation. Treasury yields and credit spreads suggest markets agree. 

Still, policymakers warn that every additional week without data amplifies the risk of a policy mistake. “We can’t calibrate in a vacuum,” one senior Fed official told reporters Friday. “We’re guessing, and guessing isn’t policy.”

The White House, for its part, appears focused on foreign rather than fiscal battles. Trade summits, tariff recalibrations, and high-profile diplomatic theatrics have replaced economic stewardship as the administration’s narrative driver. 

For markets, that means domestic uncertainty will remain the default until Washington either reopens for business or the Fed steps in to offset it.

Friday’s Chart Results

A big thank you to all those who participated!

Friday’s chart was the ratio of Consumer Discretionary (XLY) to Consumer Staples (XLP), which tracks how markets are pricing the health, and confidence, of the American consumer. It’s a simple but powerful signal: when investors prefer discretionary stocks like Amazon, Home Depot, and Nike over staples like Procter & Gamble and Coca-Cola, they’re betting households are still spending freely and the economy can handle higher rates or inflation.

Economic Data

No notable releases

Earnings Reports

No notable reports

Overnight Markets

Asia: Nikkei +3.37%, Shanghai +0.63%
Europe: FTSE +0.38%, DAX +1.34%

U.S. Pre-Market

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Opening Outlook

Markets begin the week balanced between resilience and restraint. Strong earnings and a softer trade tone have neutralized early anxiety, while Fed policy remains the anchor point for risk sentiment. Traders are recalibrating rather than retreating, AI remains the growth magnet, gold the caution flag, and Washington the wild card.

For now, fear and greed are locked in stalemate. The next move belongs to the data that isn’t there yet.

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