The overnight session shows where the risk premium landed. The US session shows if it stays.

Oil is flat despite a third American service member killed in the Iran conflict and US strikes entering their ninth night. Iran’s foreign minister indicated negotiations could continue for the sake of national interests. The dollar and yields are effectively unchanged. S&P and Nasdaq futures are bouncing back from Friday’s selling.

The tell is Korea, not US futures. The Kospi fell sharply. The Korea Exchange fired a sell-side sidecar. Program trading halted. The first of the cycle. Samsung and SK Hynix each dropped hard.

Two state responses landed in parallel. Korea broke the circuit. China's national team stepped in Sunday with a large purchase. Chips aren't just a valuation story. They're a three-country policy story.

Domino's Pizza (DPZ) reports before the open. Same-store US growth is expected to come in flat. The K-shape read arrives before the first tick.

Market Implication

Fed blackout runs nine days into July 29. The weekend setup can't be corrected by data or policy before then. Whichever way the market moves today is what carries into the meeting.

Two mechanisms.

First, the weekend moved the war from tail to base case. Not because a third American died, though that matters. Because the peace framework both sides had touted publicly collapsed. Trump stayed silent all weekend. Iran walked back the memorandum both sides signed weeks ago. Oil is repricing.

Second, the chip complex became a three-country policy story. Korea's exchange halted program trading. China's national team returned to the tape. US futures are absorbing the news without panic. Friday framed this as "DeepSeek 2.0." Now three states treat chip positioning as strategic, not commercial.

Structural Setup

Both moves weaken the Fed chair's Wednesday frame. A dead peace deal means the oil move isn't a headline shock. It's a supply shock with policy behind it. State chip intervention means capex isn't just commercial. It's national security.

Defense names line up ahead of Lockheed Martin (LMT) and RTX (RTX) reporting Tuesday. Both walk into a war that just widened. Their commentary sets the read for the whole rotation.

Airlines face fuel costs again. Delta (DAL) is the tell. Fuel up. Corporate travel uncertain. Leisure demand splintered by income. Three variables into a Q3 window.

Asia led chip weakness overnight. Not US pre-market. When Asia leads instead of follows, a US story went global. Kospi as leading indicator.

One scene. The Korea Exchange sidecar fired overnight for the first time this cycle. Not a signal. An event.

Sector Read

Defense and integrated energy win from the weekend. Airlines and chip-heavy tech lose. The rotation Friday named just got a physical mechanism.

The Fed is in blackout ahead of July 29. No speakers today. Nine days without a chance to reset.

Hammack said last week the business community is asking the Fed to act. That has weight now. Jefferson opened the hike door Thursday. Hammack added the centrist echo Friday. Two centrists shifting hawkish in the same week is a consensus forming, not a signal. Waller has been signaling for weeks. The dovish side has one voice. It just lost its argument.

China's state chip purchase Sunday is the second policy signal. Not a Fed matter directly. But it means AI positioning is a state-level concern. That changes how the Fed thinks about capex-driven inflation.

Watch Signal

Watch the two-year yield through the US open. If it holds firm while futures stay flat, the market is pricing a hawkish statement. If it drifts lower, the market believes Warsh will hold the line. The gap resolves this week.

Warsh's transitory frame died over the weekend. He doesn't know it yet.

Wednesday's Senate testimony was built carefully. Warsh argued AI price pressure was not structural. That framing let him stay dovish against three hot inflation prints. It kept the debate on tech pricing. That was a domain with room for dovish reads.

The weekend moved the debate onto war-driven oil. That's a different debate. Decades of Fed history sit against it. No chair has looked through a supply-shock energy cost and kept credibility. Warsh's frame was defensible for AI. It isn't for a shooting war at the strait. Roughly a fifth of global crude moves through it.

This isn't about whether Warsh hikes on July 29. It's about whether his frame survives the statement at all. A Fed chair loses his argument nine weeks into the job. In public. That's a structural event.

The Read

If the statement treats war oil as non-transitory, defense and integrated energy re-rate. Long-duration tech re-rates the other way. The dollar bids further. If the transitory frame holds, the dollar weakens, gold extends, and credit spreads carry the repricing. The next nine days decide which side Warsh will own.

Economic Data: No notable releases.

Fed Speakers: None (blackout ahead of July 29 FOMC).

Earnings: Domino's Pizza (DPZ) before open | Steel Dynamics (STLD), W.R. Berkley (WRB), Crown Holdings (CCK) after close.

Overnight: Nikkei closed (Marine Day holiday) | Shanghai 0.85% | FTSE -0.53% | DAX -0.01%

Sunday said this week is the setup. The weekend refused to wait.

Two things resolve today's session. Whether oil holds into the US open. And whether the Kospi sidecar was Korea liquidity or a broader chip repricing.

Alphabet (GOOG) and Tesla (TSLA) report Wednesday. The risk-off event arrived before the earnings did. A capex raise into a widening war reads one way. A capex raise into stable macro reads another.

Watch how much July 29 optionality gets priced today versus held for the print. Nine days isn't a long runway. A weekend that killed the peace deal and took a third American life isn't small either.