Futures are bouncing hard. The Nasdaq is leading. The S&P is up modestly. Yesterday's reversal wiped out an intraday all-time high. The Dow closed more than 500 points lower.

Two forces hit overnight. Trump signed the Iran MOU at a candlelit dinner at the Palace of Versailles. Macron clapped. Rubio shook hands. Oil crashed to its lowest since early March. And the Fed's hawkish dot plot from hours earlier didn't soften.

Accenture (ACN) reports before the bell. It's the last major earnings read before a three-day weekend.

The Nikkei surged to a fresh record. The dollar is mixed. The 2-year yield is still near its post-Fed highs. The bond market hasn't backed off its hike pricing. Oil is falling. Equities are rising. Rates aren't budging. That's the setup.

Market Implication

The oil collapse removes one inflation headwind. The dot plot adds a different one. Today's tape will show which force carries more weight into a three-day weekend.

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The first is the MOU. Trump's hand signing at Versailles made it official. The Geneva ceremony is canceled. Three Iranian tankers are already sailing. The IEA's June report slashed its demand outlook. It warned of a massive supply overhang next year. Supply could surge while demand barely recovers. Oil inventories sit at their lowest since the early 1990s, but the shortage is ending.

The second is the dot plot. The median moved from one cut to one hike. Nine officials see rates rising. Warsh didn't submit a forecast. The statement was 132 words. Forward guidance is gone. The 2-year yield jumped to a two-week high in minutes. Fundstrat called the spike exaggerated against the ceasefire trade. Bank of America says expect the 2-year to go higher.

The question is whether cheaper oil changes the Fed's path. The bond market's answer so far is no.

Structural Setup

If oil keeps falling, the inflation case for a hike weakens over weeks. But the dot plot is a snapshot of where officials stood before the signing. The 2-year yield will tell you whether the market believes the dots are stale or durable. Above its post-Fed highs means the hike is base case for the summer.

Yesterday's session showed the collision in real time. The Dow hit a record before 2pm. Then the dots landed. The index reversed more than 500 points. The S&P and Nasdaq both fell sharply. Tech bellwethers led the decline.

Pre-market today is the mirror image. Nasdaq futures are leading. That suggests yesterday's tech selloff was a rates reaction. Exxon Mobil (XOM) and the broader energy complex are giving back gains. The war premium is exiting crude.

Rate-sensitive names can't rally either. The dot plot overrides cheaper oil for anything tied to borrowing costs. The narrow path is industrials and cyclicals. Lower input costs. No direct rate exposure.

Sector Read

Energy is caught between the signed deal and the physical timeline. Hormuz hasn't reopened yet. Names tied to Gulf supply normalization trade on headlines until tanker traffic confirms the reopening. Industrials catch a bid from both forces. Rate-sensitive sectors stay stuck until the 2-year yield backs off its highs.

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The Bank of England decides today. Consensus is a hold. The April vote had one dissent for a hike. UK inflation is still above target, but the signed Iran deal changes the energy math. If oil stays near March lows, the hawkish wing loses its strongest argument.

Markets close after today's session for Juneteenth. They don't reopen until Monday. The deal is signed, but Hormuz hasn't physically reopened. Israel is holding troops in southern Lebanon. The MOU calls for an end to fighting on all fronts. Israel hasn't agreed. The weekend will test whether the deal holds or fractures on its first friction point.

Watch Signal

Watch tanker traffic through Hormuz over the weekend. If ships are flowing by Monday, the oil unwind picks up speed. The inflation case for a hike weakens further. If Iran conditions the reopening, the deal's price signal reverses before markets reopen.

Accenture reports this morning. The stock has dropped roughly half from its 52-week high. The question isn't whether AI creates demand for consulting. It does. The question is whether AI makes consulting so efficient that the revenue model breaks.

The old formula is simple. Headcount times billing rate times utilization. AI threatens all three. If Accenture's AI bookings are converting to billable revenue, the trade has legs. If they're converting to internal efficiency, the firm is shrinking its own growth engine.

Kroger (KR) reports the same morning. Together they bracket the economy. One measures whether firms are spending on AI transformation. The other measures whether shoppers are still buying groceries at full price. Both answers land before the open on the last trading day of the week.

The Read

Accenture is reporting into a hawkish Fed and a crashing oil price. Both arrived in the same session. If AI revenue is real and growing, the name holds through the rate noise. If the guide disappoints, it reprices every IT services firm's AI narrative. The sector's multiple compresses into a rate hike.

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Overnight: Nikkei +1.65%, Shanghai Composite −0.43%, FTSE -1.03%, DAX -0.03%

The deal is signed. The dots are hawkish. Markets close today and don't reopen until Monday. That's three days for the deal to prove itself or unravel.

Path one: tanker traffic normalizes over the weekend. Oil keeps falling. Monday opens with a clean energy reset. The inflation case for a hike starts to look stale. Path two: implementation stalls. Iran conditions the Strait. Israel escalates in Lebanon. The deal's credibility erodes before markets reopen. Oil bounces. Every rate assumption the bond market made this week gets retested.

The fork is physical. Ships either move through Hormuz or they don't. That answer arrives over the weekend. The market prices it Monday.