Stocks Rose With Yields. Then Asia Sold.

The Nasdaq gained 1.1% Monday and the S&P 500 0.4%, while the Dow slipped 0.1%.

The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.15%, up from 5.09% Friday.

At 7:28 a.m., Nasdaq 100 futures were down 0.7%. Brent traded above $111, its highest since May.

U.S. spot bitcoin funds drew net inflows of about $527 million Monday, their most since Sept. 22, per Farside data. Bitcoin still slipped, to about $81,400 at 7:20 a.m.

Market Implication

Monday looked like the end of the AI selloff on one session's evidence. The rally came with a higher 10-year yield, and Nasdaq futures gave part of it back overnight. Stocks now carry Monday's 5.15% 10-year close and this morning's Brent above $111, which leaves little room for disappointment. If Nasdaq futures are still lower at the open, Monday looks like relief inside the selloff, not the end of it.

Seoul Sold the Rebound. A Data-Center IPO Broke Its Price.

Korea's Kospi fell 3.73% to 5,552.74, near its close after a 7.57% plunge on Oct. 15.

The selling reached new issues. Elice, a Korean data-center operator, priced its IPO at the top of its range. It fell as much as 32% in its debut, Bloomberg reported.

CoreWeave (CRWV) followed, down more than 4% premarket after 7 a.m. It finished Monday lower despite an upgrade to Buy from Goldman Sachs (GS).

The won hit a two-year high as exporters sold dollars, Seoul Economic Daily reported. Capital fleeing Korea would usually weaken it.

Structural Setup

The risk has moved from what AI stocks are worth to whether AI projects can still raise money. A top-of-range IPO that trades a third lower on day one tells builders what public buyers will pay for new capacity. That cost lands first on companies needing outside money, and CoreWeave is among the most exposed U.S. names. If the Kospi keeps falling while the won strengthens, the selling points to AI exposure, not Korea.

GM Beat and Raised. Its Shares Fell Anyway.

General Motors (GM) earned an adjusted $3.70 a share, above the $3.63 expected, according to LSEG. It raised its free-cash-flow forecast and approved a $20 billion buyback. It narrowed its operating-profit forecast but kept the $15 billion midpoint. The shares fell more than 5% before the open, according to CNBC and Investing.com.

GE Aerospace (GE) posted orders up 49%, raised guidance and slipped 1.4% premarket. RTX (RTX) beat the $1.78 consensus by 48 cents a share, including 25 cents of recovered tariff costs. It raised its outlook and rose 2.2%.

Sector Read

Reactions are tracking profit outlooks. RTX raised its earnings outlook and rose, though a one-time tariff refund supplied about half its beat. GM raised its cash forecast but only held its profit midpoint, and fell. GE raised its guidance and still slipped. If GE can't hold its raise after the open, the bar has moved from raising to raising by enough.

Washington Eased Russian Supply. Traders Cut the Odds It Ends the Blockade by Oct. 31.

On Oct. 16, Washington waived tariffs aimed at big buyers of Russian crude, and President Trump says Russia will send diesel. So far, diesel is the only new physical supply.

The Gulf is moving the other way. Houthis claimed attacks on the Yanbu facility of Saudi Aramco and on the Shaybah field. Saudi Arabia hasn't confirmed them, and Reuters couldn't verify them. Yanbu is the Red Sea port Saudi Arabia uses to ship crude around Hormuz.

The flow counts conflict. Kpler put Gulf crude shipments near 8.5 million barrels a day last week, from more than 20 million the week before, Reuters reported. Energy Secretary Chris Wright puts flows at about 80% of pre-conflict levels.

Polymarket's contract on a U.S. announcement ending the Iran blockade by Oct. 31 gave back about half of Monday's jump, slipping from 12 cents to 9.5 overnight, then to 9 by 7:26 a.m.

Watch Signal

Washington's relief so far arrives as diesel, while the claimed strikes and slower flows hit crude. Yanbu is the exit that skips Hormuz, so damage there would close the workaround itself. Kpler's next weekly Gulf count will show which reading holds. If it stays near 8.5 million barrels a day while blockade odds keep falling, the oil premium rests on missing barrels, not headlines.

Tradeweb Will Pay Cash for Trumid. The Listing Route Is Narrowing.

Tradeweb Markets (TW) agreed to buy Trumid, a venture-backed bond-trading platform, for about $1.97 billion. About $1.89 billion is cash.

Trumid's backers get a cash exit, at about 18% below the roughly $2.4 billion valuation of its last funding round in 2021. Blackstone's AirTrunk put off a $1.5 billion Singapore listing this month, people familiar told Reuters, and Elice broke its IPO price Tuesday.

Private money still flows to the power behind AI. Blackstone (BX) closed its fifth energy-transition fund at its $8.7 billion hard cap, against $5.6 billion for the prior fund.

The Read

A public listing is a less dependable exit for AI and market-infrastructure assets than it was. AirTrunk's delay and Elice's debut show what public buyers demand, while Tradeweb agreed to pay mostly cash and Blackstone's fund hit its cap. A strategic buyer prices off its own balance sheet, so public investors needn't agree on the number. If more AI-infrastructure owners shift to private sales, fewer and better-capitalized buyers will set their values.

Economic Data: Housing starts and permits, 8:30 a.m. A $13 billion 20-year bond auction, Wednesday at 1 p.m.

Fed Speakers: None. The Fed is in its pre-meeting blackout.

Earnings: After today's close, Netflix (NFLX), SpaceX (SPCX), United Airlines (UAL) and Capital One (COF). After Wednesday's close, Meta (META) and Lam Research (LRCX).

Overnight: Nikkei -1.30% | Shanghai +0.12% | FTSE -0.59% | DAX -0.78%

Demand isn't missing from this week's numbers.

GE's orders rose 49%, and GM beat and raised its cash forecast. What changed is the price investors will pay for it.

The cleanest test is Wednesday evening, when Lam Research and Meta report together. One sells the tools for AI capacity. The other buys the capacity. If both hold their plans and their stocks still fall, the market is repricing what demand is worth, not doubting it.