The Dollar Moved. The Curve Barely Did.

Democrats won both chambers of Congress overnight, setting up two years against a Republican White House. Nasdaq-100 futures fell as much as 2.4% as results came in.

Futures have since turned. S&P 500 futures are up about 1.2%.

Gold rose about 3% to near $4,050. The dollar index hit a one-month low.

The 10-year yield slipped to about 4.93%. The 2-year yield fell to near a two-month low, then climbed back to about where it started.

CME FedWatch puts December hike odds near 78%. Payrolls come Friday.

Market Implication

The election moved the dollar, not the curve. Gold rose 3% and the dollar index hit a one-month low, while the 10-year slipped 2 basis points and the 2-year round-tripped. Gridlock cuts both ways on issuance, so Treasuries had little to price. Gold and the dollar are pricing two years of appropriations fights instead. If Friday’s payrolls run hot, the front end has no election cushion.

The House Was Priced. The Senate Was Not.

House control traded near 93 cents on Election Day. Senate control opened the day near 76 cents.

Kalshi's Senate contract went from about 74 cents late Tuesday afternoon to 99 cents.

Futures hit their lows as Senate results came in. Bitcoin fell to about $75,700, then recovered.

Crypto's market-structure bill needs that Senate. Before the results, TD Cowen analysts didn't expect a Democratic Congress to pass it within two years. Coinbase (COIN) is up about 2% premarket anyway.

Structural Setup

The shock lined up with the Senate's last quarter of probability, not the sweep. A 76-cent contract had far more room to run than a 93-cent one. The futures low arrived while that gap closed. Stocks priced one night. From January, bills that need both chambers face that Senate for two years.

Tokyo Sold AI Hardware. New York Bid Up Its Own.

Japan, shut Tuesday for a holiday, took in the results in one session. The Nikkei fell as much as 4.8% and closed down 1.4%. Chip-related stocks led the selling, and strategists cited the risk of tighter rules on AI infrastructure.

AMD (AMD) is up about 4% premarket. It guided fourth-quarter revenue to about $17 billion. Analysts expected about $16.2 billion.

Arista Networks (ANET) and Super Micro Computer (SMCI) also reported after Tuesday's close. Arista is up about 9% and Super Micro about 7%.

Super Micro's sales nearly quadrupled from a year earlier to $19.9 billion. Gross margin fell to 12.7% from 17.5% a quarter earlier. A year ago it was 9.3%.

Last Friday, AMD fell 10.9% and Arista 8.3%. Both followed a PC warning from Intel (INTC). AMD is still below its pre-Friday close. Arista is back around its own.

Sector Read

Buyers are splitting AI demand they can see from AI spending that still needs permission. A one-quarter forecast is a near-term call on orders. Tokyo's worry about rules runs to the years after that. Super Micro is the caution. The tape is paying for volume even as margin slips from last quarter.

Texas Already Froze Permits. In January, the Freeze Gets a New Owner.

Democrat Gina Hinojosa unseated Texas Gov. Greg Abbott. She campaigned on an immediate moratorium on new data centers. It would last until lawmakers pass new protections.

SemiAnalysis puts Texas near 30% of new U.S. capacity in 2028.

Premarket, CoreWeave (CRWV) and IREN (IREN) are down about 4%. Hut 8 (HUT) is off about 10% and Applied Digital (APLD) about 2.5%.

That's less than they gained Tuesday. IREN rose 11%, Hut 8 16%, Applied Digital 10% and CoreWeave 7%.

Texas was already paused. On Sept. 21, Abbott froze state data-center permits pending grid and water reviews. The order has no fixed end date.

Before the vote, Goldman Sachs (GS) called a national moratorium unlikely.

Watch Signal

The Texas risk is about who ends the pause, not whether there is one. A governor's freeze can be lifted by a governor. A moratorium tied to new law lasts until lawmakers act. If operators keep giving back only part of Tuesday's gains, the market sees a delay, not a cancellation.

Institutions Are Writing Checks. Wealth Investors Are in Line.

Blackstone (BX) closed its fourth institutional European direct-lending fund. With other vehicles and expected leverage, it has lined up about €13 billion to lend. That is not a €13 billion fund.

The wealth channel looks different. Investors asked to pull $2.2 billion from Partners Group's U.S. evergreen fund last quarter. It accepted $728.4 million, its 5% cap. That's about a third, versus 83% the quarter before.

That fund holds private equity, not loans. Institutional funds lock money up for years. This fund offers exits, capped at 5% a quarter.

The Read

Private markets now have two investor bases with two different exits. Institutions in closed funds can't leave early, so their money keeps lending. Wealth investors in funds like this one can leave, but 5% at a time. When requests outrun the cap, the gate becomes a queue. A big close shows institutions committing, not whether the wealth channel can get out.

Economic Data: ADP private payrolls, about 68,000 expected. ISM services, forecast near 54.8. Treasury's quarterly refunding. October payrolls Friday, forecast near 65,000.

Fed Speakers: None today. Thursday: Hammack, Barkin, Logan. Friday: Williams, Musalem, Bowman.

Earnings: Uber (UBER) has reported. McDonald's (MCD) reports before the open. Qualcomm (QCOM), Arm Holdings (ARM) and AppLovin (APP) report after the close.

Overnight: Kospi +0.6% | Nikkei -1.4% | Shanghai +2.2% | FTSE +1.2% | DAX +1.7%

The market broke the election into pieces overnight.

Bonds took the fiscal part. Tokyo took the regulation part. U.S. futures took the earnings.

None of it pulled the Fed bet lower. Hike odds sit near 78%, and the 2-year has already given back its rally. Friday's payrolls are the test. A strong number with stocks holding today's gains would say earnings can carry this tape alone. A strong number that knocks them loose would say the sweep bought one night.