Iran launched its largest missile and drone salvo since the ceasefire, targeting Kuwait and US positions. CENTCOM intercepted the attack and struck back. WTI rose 2% to near $95. The 10-year yield climbed toward 4.5%.

The Dow fell over 400 points. The S&P dropped. Nvidia (NVDA), Dell (DELL), and Oracle (ORCL) all fell hard. Nine consecutive record sessions ended on a day Iran escalated and private credit showed its first signs of spreading stress.

The rally ran nine weeks by pricing deal progress ahead of actual progress. Today showed what happens when that gap closes the wrong way.

WTI at $95 is not the same as $105. But the direction reversed. Watch homebuilders, utilities, and REITs first. They rallied hardest on deal hope. Alternative asset managers with software loan exposure (KKR, Blackstone, Apollo) are the second category. Both face pressure from two directions simultaneously.

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Partners Group capped investor withdrawals. This came one day after Cliffwater did the same. Both cited a surge in investors wanting out. 

KKR (KKR) fell 5%. Blackstone (BX) dropped 6%. Apollo (APO) fell 3%. Blue Owl (OWL) lost 4%.

Partners Group CEO David Layton said it directly on television. Redemption pressure in private credit started making its way into other asset classes. That sentence is the most important thing said in markets today.

Private credit is a $3 trillion market that institutional investors have been piling into for four years. It is illiquid by design. When too many investors want out simultaneously, managers either sell loans at a loss or cap redemptions. Both signal real stress.

The underlying cause is the same one Moody's flagged Tuesday. Software company loans are defaulting as AI disrupts their business models. Blackstone's fund has 21% software exposure. The borrowers are losing customers to AI tools while their debt costs are rising. Both at the same time.

Public BDC stocks falling is the canary here. If KKR, Blackstone, and Apollo keep declining, the contagion is real and the credit cycle is turning in a way equity markets have not priced yet. Reduce alternative asset managers with high software loan exposure.

SpaceX set a fixed IPO price of $135 per share, valuing the company at $1.75 trillion. The offering raises $75 billion, making it the largest IPO in history. Larger than Aramco. Larger than anything done before.

The capital draw is the part that matters for everyone else. $75 billion has to come from somewhere. Every institution that buys SpaceX needs to sell something else to fund it. Then Alphabet (GOOGL) raised $85 billion this week on top of that. Together those two offerings represent $160 billion in new equity supply hitting a market that just ran nine straight weeks.

Passive rebalancing adds another layer. When SpaceX enters the index at $1.75 trillion, every index fund is forced to buy it by selling current holdings proportionally. That is not optional. It is mechanical.

$160 billion in new equity supply in two weeks does not stop a bull market. It creates real headwinds. The names most likely to be sold to fund the rebalancing are the high-multiple AI stocks already in the index. Watch for unusual selling pressure in Nvidia, AMD (AMD), and Broadcom (AVGO) as the roadshow begins.

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BTIG flagged that the S&P tech sector posted its best 10-week gain in the index's entire history, up nearly 45%. The sector closed Tuesday at RSI 82 and sits 28% above its 200-day moving average.

RSI above 70 is overbought. RSI at 82 after a 45% run is territory that has appeared only 10 times since 1990. In most cases it ended with a meaningful pullback over the following 40 trading days. The two exceptions were 1995 and 1997.

The AI earnings are real. HPE, Marvell (MRVL), Dell all posted blowout results. The problem is that a 45% sector move reflects not just good earnings but multiple expansion layered on top. Multiple expansion at RSI 82 into rising rates does not have many happy endings.

ADP came in at 122,000 jobs, above estimates. The market is now pricing at least one rate hike by year-end. The Fed has no reason to cut. The fuel that drove 45% in 10 weeks is not getting replenished from the rate side.

Reduce pure-momentum tech that ran on sentiment. Own the AI infrastructure names with confirmed orders. Broadcom, Marvell, and HPE earned their moves. Many others did not.

Palo Alto Networks (PANW) beat estimates and fell anyway. The CEO declared the SaaS-pocalypse for cybersecurity dead on the earnings call. The stock has nearly doubled since April. Selling on a beat after doubling is not a fundamental story. It is a valuation story. When stocks that have doubled sell off on beats, multiple compression is not theoretical anymore.

The OECD warned that prolonged conflict could push global growth to 1.8% in 2027, the worst since the financial crisis. Its base case assumes Gulf energy recovers this month. Its adverse scenario does not. When the world's most conservative forecaster publishes recession scenarios this explicit, the range of outcomes has widened. If the adverse case is right, Warsh walks into June 16 with hawks demanding a hike and doves pointing at near-recession growth. That trap has no clean exit.

GameStop (GME) reported EPS of 30 cents and revenue up 14%, then approved a $2 billion buyback. The stock jumped. Ryan Cohen is turning a meme stock into a cash-returning business. Whether that justifies the valuation is a separate conversation but the operational improvement is real. Two private credit funds capped redemptions today while GameStop announced a $2 billion buyback. Capital is moving in unexpected directions. That inversion is worth noting.

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Iran fired its largest salvo yet. Two private credit funds capped redemptions. SpaceX set $135. Tech hit RSI 82. Nine records ended on one afternoon.

Friday's payrolls is the final data point before Warsh's June 16 meeting. ADP at 122,000 set the floor. A beat pushes hike odds higher and complicates the rate picture further. A miss reopens the growth concern the market spent nine weeks ignoring. Iran is still firing. The clock JPMorgan is watching is ticking.