Two Chinese tankers and one South Korean carrier crossed the Strait overnight. WTI fell 3% to $100. Bond yields pulled back sharply. The S&P rose. The Nasdaq gained over a percent.

Three ships. Three weeks of yield spike. Partially reversed in one session. That tells you exactly how much of the bond selloff was pure Hormuz pricing.

Every inflation reading, every yield spike, every rate hike probability this month is downstream of one chokepoint. Three tankers crossing it moved more markets than two CPI reports. The Strait is not open. But it moved and the market noticed.

WTI at $100 on three ships is pricing deal probability, not deal completion. If these crossings are isolated, oil bounces back above $105 by end of week. If they become a pattern, the June CPI math changes fast. Watch tanker tracking data through the weekend. Three ships in one night is a signal. Ten or more crossings by Friday is a pattern. That threshold is the difference between selective passage and a genuine reopening trade.

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The ships that crossed Hormuz used a route Iran's navy outlined in April. No confrontation was reported. That is important because the oil market has been pricing a binary outcome. Hormuz closed or Hormuz open. The reality is showing a third option nobody priced properly.

Selective passage. Iran controls who gets through and almost certainly extracts something for it. That is the toll structure we flagged last week. It is now operating in practice.

If selective passage becomes the norm, the war premium in WTI compresses rather than disappears. Airlines still cannot budget fuel. Shipping companies still cannot plan routes. The selective model is better than full closure. It is not resolution and the market cannot fully relax on either the supply side or the rate side until volume normalizes.

Watch tanker tracking data through the weekend. If passage volume grows, the June CPI print softens and duration gets relief. If crossings stay sporadic, the premium rebuilds fast and we are back where we were Friday. One number to watch. Easy to track.

Target (TGT) reported EPS of $1.71 against $1.46 expected. Revenue beat by $800 million. The stock jumped premarket. Then the conference call happened and shares reversed lower.

The CFO said tax refunds boosted Q1 spending. The refunds are gone now. Q2 faces a tougher comparison and the macroeconomic environment remains unpredictable. Translation: the tailwind that drove the beat is a one-time lift, not a trend.

Target's management gave the most honest consumer read of the quarter. The beat was real and borrowed at the same time. Q2 starts with $4.50 gas, declining sentiment, and no gaming console launch to drive traffic.

TJX Companies (TJX) told the opposite story. Beat on every line and rose. Off-price retail is capturing exactly the trade-down consumer Target's CFO is worried about losing. The bifurcation is clean. Full-price discretionary is borrowing time. Off-price is gaining durable share.

Target's Q2 warning is more useful than the Q1 beat. Own TJX and off-price names with trade-down tailwinds. Lowe's beat estimates and fell anyway, same pattern as Target. Good quarter, uncertain guide. The Pro segment held, confirming Home Depot's read from Tuesday. DIY stayed soft. The housing complex is functioning but the consumer doing the discretionary spending is pulling back. The market is selling the outlook, not the scorecard.

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The CFTC opened a probe into crude futures trades made minutes before Trump's March 23 Truth Social post postponing strikes on Iran. 

More than $800 million in crude changed hands between 3:42 and 3:47am, over an hour before the public announcement at 4:50am. At least five firms booked gains of $5 million or more.

This is the third suspicious pre-announcement oil trade pattern identified during the war. Each one preceded a Trump announcement that moved WTI by double digits in a day.

The probe tells you someone has been moving crude on information the public did not have. If those trades were front-run, price discovery in the most important commodity market in the world has been compromised. Every company, every margin model, and every inflation forecast that uses WTI as an input is affected.

When crude spikes sharply in pre-dawn hours without a visible catalyst, the announcement tends to follow. That pattern has now been identified by regulators. Trade accordingly and watch pre-market oil moves with that context in mind.

Nvidia (NVDA) reported after the close. Goldman estimated it drove roughly a fifth of the S&P's total return this year. It had fallen after each of the last three earnings reports despite beating estimates. Tonight answered both questions the market was asking. Blackwell supply is meeting demand. China clearances are becoming revenue.

SpaceX's IPO prospectus filing is expected today. The company is targeting a raise that would make it the largest US IPO in history. Blue Origin's Jeff Bezos separately told CNBC the company is considering outside investors for the first time. Two of the most consequential private companies in the world are moving toward public markets in the same week. Cerebras set the floor for AI hardware at IPO. SpaceX prices the ceiling. Every AI IPO that follows prices somewhere between those two data points.

CAVA Group (CAVA) surged after beating Q1 estimates and raising full-year guidance. Premium fast casual is absorbing spending that used to go to sit-down restaurants. The consumer under energy pressure is not eating less. They are eating differently and CAVA captures one end of that shift cleanly.

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Three ships bought the tape a day of relief. The Strait is still not open. WTI is at $100 instead of $104. Yields pulled back from multi-year highs. Target beat and warned you about Q2. The CFTC is investigating who knew about Trump's Iran announcement before the rest of us.

Three ships started the relief. Nvidia extended it. Monday opens with the bond market, the Strait, and the short squeeze all pointed in the same direction for the first time in weeks.