The S&P gained. The Nasdaq rose over 1%. The Dow slipped. Chips ran the show and Micron (MU) ran hardest of all.

Yields fell. Oil held below $100 on deal optimism despite fresh US strikes near Bandar Abbas overnight. The market chose the deal headline over the military action and held it all session.

But copper hit all-time highs, and lumber is up 30% from December. 

Input prices for construction have risen more in four months than the prior three years combined. The peace trade is running hot. The building materials market is pricing something slower and more painful underneath.

The rally is deal-dependent and the deal has not closed. CENTCOM struck during the ceasefire. Brent rose while WTI fell, two benchmarks reading different risks. Watch that spread. It is the market's most honest signal right now.

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Micron (MU) surged over 20% and crossed $1 trillion in market cap for the first time. Up more than 800% over the past twelve months. UBS nearly tripled its price target, arguing investors still do not understand what AI does to memory demand structurally.

Every AI agent, every data center expansion, every GPU cluster shipped by Nvidia (NVDA) or AMD (AMD) creates persistent memory demand that does not behave like the old cyclical chip market. 

The Roundhill Memory ETF (DRAM) gained over 15% and hit a record. South Korea's Kospi hit a fresh record as Samsung and SK Hynix both ran. The memory trade is no longer a US story. It is a global repricing of what AI infrastructure actually needs.

Micron at $1 trillion is the middle of the repricing, not the end. The structural demand case is confirmed by every major AI earnings announcement this season. Own the memory layer. The cycle argument is done.

Goldman raised its AI capex growth forecast to 7.8% for 2026. Annual AI spending on chips, servers, data centers, and software reaches $800 billion by year end. For context, that is larger than the entire GDP of several G20 economies.

Here is the catch. Because AI equipment is largely imported and chip design services to foreign manufacturers do not get fully captured in official stats, Goldman estimates that $800 billion adds only 0.1 percentage points to measured GDP. The investment is real. The credit mostly disappears into a statistical gap.

This is why Warsh cannot simply cut because growth looks soft. The real economy is stronger than the headline numbers suggest in some places and weaker in others. AI capex and consumer stress are both real simultaneously.

Do not wait for GDP to confirm what the order books already show. Own the capex beneficiaries directly. The gap between AI investment and measured growth is a feature of the data, not evidence the spending is not happening.

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China's crude imports in May are tracking at their lowest since 2016. Chinese refineries are drawing down strategic reserves instead of buying at war-premium prices. The math was simple. Prices got high enough that China stepped back from the queue.

The side effect matters. Freed-up supply has helped Asian refinery runs stabilize. Refineries across Asia are projected to process 900,000 more barrels per day in May versus April. Markets bracing for a severe product shortage are getting modest relief because China chose to sit out the bidding.

If China stays out of the market through June, the regional product shortage that was threatening diesel and jet fuel prices eases faster than WTI alone suggests. That is a meaningful input into June CPI math.

Watch Chinese import data through June. China drawing reserves instead of buying is quietly doing more for global inflation than any diplomatic statement this week. If it holds, Warsh gets a slightly softer path heading into June 16.

AutoZone (AZO) fell 10% after missing revenue and blaming cool weather. O'Reilly (ORLY) fell in sympathy. The lower-income consumer under $4.55 gas is not buying auto parts. Cool weather is a convenient excuse.

Copper hit all-time highs, up 35% year over year. Lumber up 30%. Aluminum near records. A typical US home build costs more now than any point in recent memory. Housing affordability was already broken. It just got worse.

Ferrari (RACE) fell sharply after unveiling its first EV, the Luce, at $640,000. Brand purists are not happy. When even Ferrari loyalists push back on electrification, it says something about how deep EV fatigue runs across income levels.

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Micron crossed $1 trillion. AI capex hits $800 billion annually and barely registers in GDP. China stepped back from the oil market and quietly helped stabilize Asia. AutoZone confirmed the lower-income consumer is tapped.

The deal optimism held the tape together. Copper, lumber, and aluminum are pricing a cost environment that does not resolve with a ceasefire announcement.

PCE lands Thursday. June CPI follows shortly after. Warsh's first meeting is June 16. The peace trade gets two more data points before it has to prove it was right all along.