The S&P extended its record streak. The Nasdaq kept running. Oil ticked up to near $98, still $25 above pre-war levels. The Strait is still closed. Every barrel moving through the Gulf moves at Iran's discretion.

Jobless claims came in below estimates and fell from the prior week. The labor market is not cracking. That removes one natural pressure valve the Fed was counting on to slow inflation on its own.

The path to a deal is clearer tonight. The cost of the last seven weeks is still sitting in the supply chain.

The ceasefire directly addresses Iran's stated condition for talks. If second-round talks get scheduled before April 21, the deal trade extends. If the ceasefire expires without a framework, energy extends, airlines give back the truce trade, and the software names that led the re-risking feel it first.

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TSMC (TSM) reported profit up 58%, beat revenue estimates, and raised its full-year outlook. Every headline number was strong. The stock fell anyway.

The line that moved traders was capital spending. TSMC said it will spend at the top end of its already elevated guidance range. A potential 37% jump from last year. In a normal environment that signals confidence. Right now, it signals something else. The AI buildout requires a level of spending that compresses near-term cash flow even as revenue grows.

The read-through is clear. Terafab, Musk's Austin chip project, has now reached out to Tokyo Electron (8035.T), Applied Materials (AMAT), and Lam Research (LRCX) for equipment. Tokyo Electron surged in Japan on the news. Every major chipmaker is building at scale simultaneously. The equipment suppliers are the pinch point. TSMC's spending guidance just confirmed it.

TSMC's beat validates AI demand. Its spending guidance confirms equipment suppliers are the constrained asset. Applied Materials, Lam Research, and KLA are the cleaner expression of that trade.

PepsiCo (PEP) beat estimates on Thursday. Then its CFO said something the stock price didn't capture. Inflation will come. Fertilizer costs are up. Plastics are up. Transportation is up. PepsiCo has hedges in place for the next six to twelve months. When those hedges expire, the cost hits the shelf.

The Philadelphia Fed's April survey showed input prices jumping nearly 15 points. The New York Fed's services survey showed a sharp acceleration in what businesses are paying. Both cover April. Both are reading seven weeks of elevated oil.

PPG Industries (PPG) Industries announced price increases of up to 20% globally, citing energy, petrochemical, and transport costs. PPG makes paint and coatings. Its raw materials track crude. When PPG raises prices 20%, the cost shift has already happened.

Three data points, same message. The cost pipeline does not care when the war ends. It cares what oil did for the past seven weeks. That damage is already moving through the system.

Companies with pricing power and input hedges outperform during a cost pass-through phase. PepsiCo hedged. PPG is already moving prices. Own that cohort before CPI confirms what the supply chain already knows.

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Kevin Warsh's confirmation odds fell to 38% Thursday. Senator Tillis has vowed to block any Fed nominee until the DOJ investigation into Jerome Powell concludes. Trump said he will not drop the probe and threatened to fire Powell when his chair term ends May 15.

This is not a personnel story. It is a policy story at the worst possible time.

The Fed is managing the largest energy-driven inflation shock in decades. It needs clear authority to act when the data demands it. Right now it has a chair whose term expires in weeks, a nominee whose confirmation is stalling, and a Senate blocking both. There is no clear answer in existing law for what happens next.

The market has priced Fed continuity. It has not priced a leadership vacuum during peak inflation season.

Watch Warsh's confirmation odds on Kalshi into April 21. Below 30% means the market starts pricing a Fed without a leader at its most consequential decision point in years. Rate-sensitive names reprice before the index does.

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The S&P hit records. Lebanon agreed to a ceasefire. The path to a deal is clearer tonight.

TSMC beat and fell on spending. PepsiCo warned inflation is coming. PPG raised prices globally. The Philadelphia and New York Fed surveys showed input costs accelerating sharply in April. None of that is in equity prices.

The ceasefire expires April 21. Warsh's hearing is April 21. Powell's term ends May 15. The deal trade has been right for two weeks. The inflation pipeline has been building for seven. Right now both are true and the market has only priced one of them.