June CPI came in at 3.5%, beating the 3.8% estimate. Core landed at 2.6%, well below the 2.9% forecast. July hike odds fell immediately. The Nasdaq  gained. The S&P rose. The Dow barely moved, dragged entirely by IBM falling 25%.

WTI held near $79 after Trump walked back his 20% Hormuz toll. He replaced it with trade deal commitments from Gulf states. Oil stayed elevated. The toll mechanism is gone. The underlying Iran dispute is not.

Warsh testified for nearly three hours and called the CPI "positive relative to expectations." He explicitly refused to say mission accomplished. September hike odds stayed above 60%. One good month bought time. It did not change the destination.

July hike is off the table. September is very much not. Own rate-sensitive names cautiously into the next PCE. Warsh said it clearly: one month is not the trend and the Fed is not done.

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IBM (IBM) fell 25%, its worst single session since Black Monday in 1987. The company warned that Q2 software and infrastructure revenue missed badly. CEO Arvind Krishna said clients shifted spending away from IBM's software stack and toward AI hardware and memory chips directly.

AI ate IBM's budget. This is the exact mirror of the Micron and SK Hynix story. Memory chips and AI hardware are winning the IT budget competition. Legacy enterprise software is losing it, even at well-run companies.

IBM dragged Accenture (ACN), Workday (WDAY), ServiceNow (NOW), and Gartner (IT) lower with it. One profit warning re-rated the entire legacy enterprise software space in one session.

IBM's miss and last week's KeyBanc Salesforce downgrade tell the same story twice. Clients are not ready for enterprise AI software. But they are buying the chips that will eventually run it. Those are different trades pointing in opposite directions.

Own AI infrastructure hardware and memory names. Reduce legacy enterprise software until companies show they are capturing AI budget rather than losing it. IBM just confirmed which side of that line they are currently on.

Goldman Sachs (GS) surged roughly 8% after posting record quarterly earnings. Profit rose 78%. Revenue rose 39%. Equity underwriting fees more than doubled, up 130%. Goldman said the SpaceX IPO drove a significant portion of that gain.

One IPO added 130% to equity underwriting fees at the world's largest investment bank. That is the most direct number yet for what the SpaceX listing meant for Wall Street. It also tells you exactly what an OpenAI or Anthropic IPO means for Goldman's 2027 earnings.

Goldman equity trading revenue rose 72%. JPMorgan (JPM) stock trading revenue rose 86%. The AI-driven volatility that hurt retail investors created a windfall for bank trading desks on both sides of every swing. Dimon called conditions "getting close to as good as it gets" while warning that "tectonic plates are shifting below the surface."

Not every bank won cleanly. Citigroup (C) fell despite beating earnings after CEO Jane Fraser said the bank would reinvest the strong results rather than return capital immediately. Investors wanted the upside now. That gap between execution and communication cost Citi several points.

Goldman is the cleanest play on IPO pipeline recovery and AI-driven trading volatility. The SpaceX fee quantifies exactly what the next major IPO means for their revenue. Own GS into any OpenAI or Anthropic listing announcement.

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Warsh told Congress that inflation is "a choice" and the Fed will deliver price stability. He committed to 2%. He said he would "keep politics out of the Fed" when pressed on Trump. He defined price stability as when households "don't have to think about" price changes.

That definition is unusually demanding. Households definitely still think about prices. By Warsh's own benchmark, the job is not close to done regardless of today's print.

His balance sheet comment was the most underreported line of the session. He said the balance sheet is "part of monetary policy, not just plumbing." That is a setup for treating balance sheet reduction as a separate tightening tool alongside rate hikes. That tool has not been discussed seriously this cycle. If Warsh activates it, long-duration bonds face pressure beyond what rate hike pricing alone captures.

The balance sheet comment is the thing nobody priced today. Watch the five Fed task force reviews Warsh mentioned. That is where the balance sheet decision gets built over the next few months.

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The session gave markets almost everything it wanted on rates and almost everything it feared on war at the same time. The Nasdaq gained. The Dow barely moved because IBM ate its gains alone.

September is still priced above 60% hike odds. Warsh's balance sheet comment is the sleeper risk nobody priced today. PPI lands tomorrow. Morgan Stanley (MS) and ASML both report. The week is not done delivering big numbers.