Iran suspended negotiations and said it would completely shut the Strait over Israeli operations in Lebanon. Overnight, Iran fired two ballistic missiles at US forces in Kuwait. 

WTI jumped 7% to near $94. The S&P held near flat. The AI trade absorbed the oil spike. Everything rate-sensitive did not.

Nine straight winning weeks just ran into a Monday morning reality check. The ceasefire that drove May's rally survived the weekend. It did not survive the week's first session.

Iran suspending talks removes the diplomatic path the market spent May pricing. Homebuilders, utilities, and REITs face the sharpest reversal. They rallied hardest on deal hope. Berkshire just paid $6.8 billion for a homebuilder betting rates fall. If WTI holds above $90, that bet is underwater before the ink dries. Friday's payrolls land into this exact tension.

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Nvidia (NVDA) unveiled the RTX Spark Superchip for personal computers at Computex. Jensen Huang called it as big as reinventing the phone. The chip uses ARM Holdings (ARM) technology. ARM surged. Dell (DELL) and HP (HPQ), which will manufacture computers with the chip, both rose.

Intel (INTC) fell sharply. Qualcomm (QCOM) dropped nearly 10%. AMD (AMD) fell. When the world's most valuable chip company enters your market, the repricing is immediate and it is not kind.

But the more important thing Huang said was not about chips. He directly addressed fears that AI agents would replace software companies. His answer: AI agents use more software tools than humans ever did. ServiceNow (NOW) jumped 10%. Salesforce (CRM) rose 10%. SAP (SAP) gained. The software ETF (IGV) turned positive for the year, up over 40% from its April low.

In April the IGV was down 30% on fears AI would destroy it entirely. Huang just told the world's most important tech conference those fears were wrong. The market believed him on the spot.

Own the software names the market spent April dumping. Agents need tools. Tools need software companies. ServiceNow, Salesforce, and Datadog (DDOG) are repricing a thesis that was wrong for six weeks.

Berkshire Hathaway agreed to buy Taylor Morrison Home (TMHC) for $6.8 billion cash. The homebuilder jumped 22%. It is Greg Abel's first major acquisition since taking over from Warren Buffett.

Homebuilders are the most rate-sensitive sector in the market. Mortgage rates near 6.4% have frozen the housing market for three straight spring seasons. Taylor Morrison sells homes to buyers who need mortgages. Every 25 basis points rates fall directly expands the buyer pool.

Paying $6.8 billion in cash for a homebuilder at near multi-year rate highs is not a bet on today. It is a bet on where rates are in 18 to 24 months. Abel is saying the Iran war ends, energy inflation cools, and the Fed gets room to cut. That is a very specific macro call dressed up as a real estate deal.

Berkshire is not a market timer. When the world's most patient capital makes a directional bet this explicit, it is worth paying attention.

Berkshire just telegraphed its conviction on rate cuts. D.R. Horton (DHI), Lennar (LEN), and NVR (NVR) all trade at steep discounts to fair value in a normalized rate environment. This is where long-term capital tends to position before the pricing shows up in earnings.

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Bitcoin ETFs posted their 10th consecutive day of net outflows, the first time that has ever happened. Total net assets fell by over $13 billion in two weeks. Bitcoin fell toward $70,000.

Meanwhile the Nasdaq hit records. Nvidia is up over 20% this year. The speculative capital that drove crypto to $126,000 last October found a better thesis and moved.

Strategy (MSTR) sold bitcoin for the first time since 2022. It sold 32 coins for $2.5 million, a rounding error on its 843,000 coin holding. But the symbolism lands hard. The company built around never selling just sold. The never-sell thesis has its first crack.

Bitcoin is down 18% year to date. Nasdaq at records. The bright shiny object has a new address and it runs on GPUs.

This is a capital allocation shift, not a trade. Institutional money found a better high-growth thesis in AI names with actual earnings. Bitcoin needs a new catalyst to reverse this. None is visible right now.

The S&P's top 10 companies now represent 43% of the index, up from 29% in 2020. Nearly half the index is riding one thesis. When one thesis carries that much weight, its first real disappointment hits harder than usual. Monday removed the Iran deal assumption. That is one of the three bets holding this market. The other two, soft landing and AI supercycle, are still intact. Watch whether they are enough to absorb the first one breaking.

Bloom Energy (BE) jumped from the Russell 2000 directly to the Russell Top 200, the first stock to make that leap since 2008. Up 14-fold in a year on AI data center power demand. When fuel-cell companies go mega-cap because data centers need electricity, the AI power trade has found its most extreme expression yet.

IAC is offering $18 billion for MGM Resorts (MGM). Barry Diller making a move on one of Las Vegas's biggest operators. MGM jumped 14%. US leisure demand holding up is the thesis. At $4.55 gas, that is a bolder call than it looks. United Airlines named 53 million passengers this summer as its forward signal. If summer bookings hold through June, the leisure thesis survives. If they crack, Diller paid a premium at the wrong point in the cycle.

That's not noise. That's capital rushing back into AI.

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May's rally ran on three assumptions. A peace deal. A soft landing. An AI supercycle. 

Monday removed the first one. Watch what the bond market does Tuesday morning. That tells you whether the other two are enough.