The US struck 140 Iranian targets Saturday. Iran retaliated with strikes on US facilities across Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Oman. Then Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed. Trump disputed it on Sunday, saying traffic was still flowing. Windward tracked nine ships transiting Saturday.

WTI jumped above $74 in early trading before pulling back. Nasdaq futures fell nearly 1%. Chip stocks opened lower across the board. SK Hynix (SKHYV) dropped around 8% in premarket after crashing 15% in Seoul. The Kospi fell nearly 9% and triggered a trading halt.

The week that was supposed to be about bank earnings and CPI just became about Hormuz again.

Four US bombing runs in one week names this as a recurring pattern, not a one-off. The Hormuz risk premium is now embedded into every rate and inflation decision through September. Watch whether technical talks resume in Oman this week. Resumption contains the damage. Silence accelerates it.

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SK Hynix (SKHYV) debuted on the Nasdaq Friday at $170, up 14% from its $149 offer price. This morning in Seoul it fell 15%, its worst single day on record. The ADRs dropped around 8% in premarket. There was no clear fundamental trigger.

Raymond James called it positioning and sentiment, not a reaction to any material change in fundamentals. The stock is still up nearly threefold this year. HBM demand remains robust per every analyst covering the name. What changed is that the IPO pop created a new valuation benchmark and investors immediately disagreed on what the right price actually is.

This is the beat-and-drop pattern in IPO form. The business is fine. The entry multiple is the debate. SK Hynix's Seoul shares and its US ADRs now trade simultaneously, creating a pricing arbitrage that the market has not resolved yet.

The Seoul crash does not change HBM fundamentals. Jefferies said last week that memory demand continues to run ahead of supply with no scenario where compute demand declines. The SK Hynix ADR is a positioning story, not a fundamental one. Watch where it stabilizes relative to the Seoul line. That gap is the real signal.

Micron (MU) fell around 4% premarket. Sandisk (SNDK) dropped similarly. AMD (AMD) and Intel (INTC) each fell. The semiconductor ETF (SMH) opened lower.

But the broader tape is not collapsing. S&P futures fell modestly. Dow futures held near flat. Bank stocks are relatively stable ahead of earnings tomorrow. Energy names are the only sector with a genuine bid as WTI moved higher.

This is not the same as the panic sell of two weeks ago. The rotation into energy, banks, and defensives is absorbing some of the chip pressure. That split is the most important signal of the morning.

Energy gets the cleanest bid on Hormuz escalation. Banks report tomorrow and the tape is not pricing disaster there. Chips need the Hormuz situation to stabilize before they can stabilize. Everything else is waiting on CPI tomorrow morning.

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Warsh appears before the House Financial Services Committee tomorrow. CPI for June prints the same morning. He testifies to the Senate Banking Committee Wednesday. This is his first major congressional appearance since taking the chair in May.

The committee is split. Waller declared the Fed's risks completely flipped. NY Fed President Williams wants patience, specifically monthly core readings of 0.2% or lower before moving. BNP Paribas expects three rate hikes starting no later than December. Current real rates are near zero or negative with inflation running between 3 and 4%.

Warsh walks into Congress with a live Hormuz escalation, WTI above $74, and a CPI print in hand. His prepared remarks will already reflect the number. His extemporaneous answers will be the market's first real read on how hawkish he actually is.

Watch Warsh's language on AI infrastructure as an inflation driver. Williams called it the pressure hardest to look through. Any similar framing from Warsh confirms the hawkish lean as committee consensus. Patience language names Williams as still controlling the tempo.

Apple (AAPL) sued OpenAI Friday, alleging trade secret theft. A senior OpenAI executive, former Apple VP Tang Tan, is accused of soliciting trade secrets from Apple employees during the hiring process. Another employee allegedly used an Apple login to access Apple's servers. Tan spent 24 years at Apple before leaving with Jony Ive to build a device company that OpenAI acquired last year.

This was one of Tim Cook's final acts before John Ternus takes over as CEO in the fall. The timing is strategic. Apple's Siri is getting a makeover but Apple could not build the AI itself, relying on Google to power it. OpenAI is building a family of devices that could directly compete with the iPhone. SpaceX's AI unit is already prototyping its own smartphone-like device.

Apple's 2010 Samsung lawsuit took eight years to settle. Litigation as a delay tactic is the specific playbook here. Cook is buying his successor time.

Watch whether OpenAI accelerates its device announcement timeline in response. A faster announcement confirms the lawsuit as validation that the threat is real. A slowdown signals caution. Either way, Apple just told the market it does not believe its AI position is safe. That is the most important thing the lawsuit communicates.

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Economic Data: No notable releases

Fed Speakers: Bowman and Waller 

Earnings: Progressive (PGR), Fastenal (FAST)

Overnight: Nikkei -1.92%, Shanghai Composite -2.06%, FTSE -0.11%, DAX +0.17%

The Hormuz situation is now a weekly recurring event. Four US strikes in one week changes the risk premium framework. SK Hynix crashed on no new fundamental news. Apple sued OpenAI in one of Tim Cook's last acts.

Two paths into tomorrow. CPI comes in soft, Warsh sounds patient, banks beat, the chip selloff stabilizes and the week ends better than it started. Or CPI stays hot, Warsh sounds hawkish on AI infrastructure, and Hormuz stays closed in practice regardless of what Trump says.

The next 24 hours answer the most important macro question of the summer. Position before CPI. Not after it.