The US struck more than 90 Iranian targets overnight. Then Trump said Iran called him wanting a deal. That single sentence did more for risk appetite than anything the Fed said Wednesday.

Nasdaq futures led gains. Chips bounced. WTI held near $74. The Kospi recovered after entering bear market territory. The Nikkei closed more than 1% higher.

The market is not pricing peace. It is pricing the possibility of negotiations. That is a narrower bet than it sounds, and it expires fast if Iran fires again.

The bounce is renting optimism, not owning it. WTI above $74 keeps inflation pressure on. ISM Services and jobless claims land this morning. Both hit into a market trying to find its footing.

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SK Hynix prices its US ADR tonight. Sources reported the book is more than seven times oversubscribed. That is the single most important data point for the AI memory trade this week.

Oversubscription at 7x means institutional investors wanted seven times more shares than are available. That is not a vote of confidence. That is a stampede. After two weeks of memory stocks selling off on Samsung's beat-and-drop and DeepSeek chip fears, seven times oversubscribed is the market saying it was wrong to sell.

SK Hynix is Nvidia's (NVDA) primary high-bandwidth memory supplier. Every AI data center build depends on its chips. Its forward P/E sits around 7x even after tripling this year. Compare that to Nvidia at 40x. The valuation gap between the chip that gets the headlines and the chip that makes the AI work has never been wider.

The Kospi heavyweight rose more than 5% overnight. Micron (MU) gained in premarket. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) climbed nearly 3% before the open.

The pricing tonight is the moment of truth. A premium price versus Wednesday's range means demand absorbed the Iran noise entirely. Watch the Friday open against tonight's price. That gap tells you more about AI equity appetite than any earnings call this quarter.

Wednesday's session was a master class in war-trade positioning. American Airlines (AAL) fell 6%. JetBlue (JBLU) dropped 4%. Delta (DAL) fell 3% ahead of its earnings Friday. Every carrier that celebrated cheap jet fuel in June is giving it back now.

On the other side, Chevron (CVX) and ConocoPhillips (COP) gained. Marathon Petroleum (MPC) rose 3%. Diamondback Energy (FANG) jumped premarket. Energy is the only sector with a clean fundamental tailwind when WTI is above $74 and rising.

Chips stabilized after the overnight Iran-called-Trump headline. The SMH is bouncing. That bounce is correlated with Iran de-escalation hopes, not with any new fundamental data. The distinction matters because the bounce reverses if Iran fires again before Friday.

Energy stays bid until there is a signed deal. Airlines are the cleanest short in a war-risk environment. Chips are caught between the Iran macro and the SK Hynix demand signal. The two forces are pulling in opposite directions and Friday resolves one of them.

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PepsiCo (PEP) reported this morning and missed earnings estimates. Revenue beat but earnings per share came in below consensus. The reason: North American consumers are spending less on snacks and beverages.

PepsiCo is not a volatile company. It does not miss often. When it does, the reason usually matters beyond the stock. North American volume weakness at a company with this kind of pricing power is a signal that real spending compression has reached the everyday consumer, not just discretionary categories.

This follows Walmart cutting prices on thousands of items last week. It follows the Conference Board's jobs hard-to-get index hitting its highest since 2021. The consumer picture is not broken but it is bending in a direction that makes the Fed's job harder, not easier.

A softening consumer argues against hikes. WTI above $74 argues for them. Both things are true simultaneously and the Fed has equal numbers on both sides of its own committee. That is the definition of a policy standoff.

Watch Williams and Logan at the market-liquidity workshop today. First Fed speakers after the minutes. Any lean toward the hike camp explicitly is the signal the minutes refused to give.

Delta Air Lines (DAL) reports earnings Friday morning. The setup is unlike anything in recent memory. Jet fuel is simultaneously cheaper than it was at the war's peak and more expensive than it was 48 hours ago.

Delta's Q2 ran partly during the period when WTI was above $100. It also ran during the period when WTI fell back toward $68. The average fuel cost for the quarter will land somewhere in between. That math is manageable.

What is less manageable is the guidance question. Trump declared the ceasefire over Wednesday. WTI is back above $74. Delta has to tell investors what it expects fuel costs to be for the rest of the year into a situation where the president is declaring wars over on live television and then taking calls from Tehran the same evening.

Airlines have actually been reaping unusual profits from the war's price gyrations, charging high fares while fuel costs were lower than they appeared in headlines. Delta's summer load factors are reportedly strong. The earnings themselves may be fine. The guidance is where this gets complicated.

The number to watch is not Q2 earnings. It is Delta's fuel cost assumption for Q3. Whatever number Delta uses tells you what the smartest operators in the airline business think WTI does from here. That is worth more than any Wall Street oil forecast.

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Economic Data: Jobless Claims, Existing Home Sales, ISM Services

Fed: Williams and Logan speaking today

Treasury: 30-year bond auction

Earnings: Netflix (NFLX) after close | Aritzia after close

Tomorrow: SK Hynix begins trading | Delta (DAL) earnings

Overnight: Nikkei +1.4%, Kospi +0.6%, DAX +0.6%, FTSE -0.2%

Iran called. SK Hynix is 7x oversubscribed. PepsiCo just told you the consumer is bending. The market opened better than anyone expected after Wednesday's collapse.

SK Hynix prices tonight. Netflix reports tonight. Delta reports tomorrow. ISM and jobless claims hit this morning. Four data points in 24 hours answer the three biggest questions in this market. Position before the data, not after it.