Chips Fell 7%. Bonds and Oil Stocks Rose.

The Philadelphia semiconductor index fell 7.2% on October's last session. The Nasdaq lost 2.9%, the S&P 500 1.8%, the Russell 2000 1.7% and the Dow 1.1%.

The selling was narrow. An equal-weight S&P 500 fund fell 0.8%, less than half the drop in the standard index fund. Energy, health care and utilities finished higher.

The 10-year Treasury yield fell about 6 basis points to 4.93%. Gold did not join the bid. It fell more than 3% and touched a 52-week low.

The employment cost index rose 0.8% in the third quarter, as expected. St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said more tightening will be "necessary, and soon." Kalshi's December hike contract still ended near 70 cents, little changed on the day.

TQ Trade Implication

Treasuries rallied and hike odds barely moved on a day Fed officials argued for higher rates. Gold fell with stocks. When the only haven that works is the bond market, the selling looks more like raising cash than hedging inflation. That points to a liquidity bid in bonds rather than a call on the Fed. If gold keeps sliding while hike odds hold near 70 cents, the Fed can still take that rally back.

Intel's Drop Got Worse. Amazon's Got Better.

Intel (INTC) closed down nearly 29% at $65.76, deeper than the roughly 25% drop indicated before the open. Chief Executive Lip-Bu Tan said customers began signaling a PC slowdown tied to memory prices and availability.

The PC chain sold with it. Dell (DELL) fell 10.8%, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) 10.9% and Qualcomm (QCOM) 11.1%. Nvidia (NVDA) lost 4.2%.

Memory makers did not gain from higher prices. Sandisk (SNDK) fell 13.5%, a day after beating and guiding above forecasts.

Amazon (AMZN) went the other way. It closed down 1.4%, after trading about 7% lower before the open. Its report showed $42.4 billion of negative free cash flow over 12 months, and nothing in the session changed that number.

TQ Execution Bias

The market treated Intel's warning as a problem for its customers, not just for Intel. Memory is an input for PC makers, so a shortage raises their costs while capping the units they can sell. Memory makers falling alongside them suggests traders expect fewer units, not fatter prices. Amazon's spending is a cost it chose and can slow. Intel's customers did not choose theirs.

Refining Out-Earned Drilling. Valero Is Buying Back Capacity.

Exxon Mobil (XOM) earned more from refining than from producing oil. Its refining and fuels unit made $9.0 billion, up about 120% from the second quarter, while upstream fell about 20% to $7.3 billion. Adjusted earnings of $4.23 a share beat the $4.08 expected, and Exxon set a $20 billion buyback for 2027.

Chevron (CVX) earned $5.28 a share against $4.89 expected. Its upstream earnings fell about 30% to $5.7 billion while Brent averaged $97, down from $104. Its U.S. refineries ran a record volume at 98% utilization. Exxon rose 2.2% and Chevron 1.7%, both near record highs.

Valero (VLO) agreed to buy LyondellBasell's (LYB) shut Houston refinery for $320.5 million. Valero expects to restart 165,000 barrels a day there by the end of 2027. Chief Executive Lane Riggs said the deal expands Valero's Gulf Coast footprint "at a fraction of replacement value." LyondellBasell said Valero is taking on the site's environmental and pension liabilities. The plant stopped refining in March 2025. Valero rose 3.9%, slightly ahead of other refiners.

TQ Edge Setup

Refining margins are now paying for buybacks and for bringing shut plants back. Cheap restarts make sense while spreads stay wide, and every restarted barrel adds supply that narrows them. Valero expects its restart by the end of 2027, the year Exxon's $20 billion buyback runs. The margin is paying to build its own competition.

Bitcoin Slipped 1%. Coinbase Fell 11%.

Bitcoin was down about 1.2%, near $76,800. Coinbase (COIN) fell 10.6% after touching $136.90, a 52-week low. Circle (CRCL) fell 9.3%, Strategy (MSTR) 7.8% and Robinhood (HOOD) 7.2%.

Binance said it has reserved more than $6.34 billion to cover its breach, $5 billion of it already held in the exact tokens taken. It is buying the remaining $1.34 billion or so on exchanges and through over-the-counter desks. Co-Chief Executive Richard Teng said Binance aims to restore withdrawals by Sunday and publish a full proof of reserves by Monday.

Coinbase's quarterly filing shows plans by three insiders to sell up to about 13.6 million shares. Chief Executive Brian Armstrong's plan can begin selling Nov. 16, and no sales have occurred under the plans. Coinbase's market value, about $37.9 billion at the close, sits below the $40 billion private valuation Kalshi announced Thursday.

TQ Edge Setup

The selling landed on the companies around crypto more than on the coin. The stocks carry the beta of a falling Nasdaq and depend on trading volume, while bitcoin carries neither. Coinbase now also carries a filed insider overhang. A public crypto exchange now trades below the private mark an event-contract venue announced a day earlier.

• A buyout report lifted Global Payments. Global Payments (GPN) rose as much as 18% and closed up 13%. The Financial Times reported that CD&R has teamed up with GTCR, the company's largest shareholder, on a joint bid. The paper put the enterprise value near $40 billion and said a deal may not materialize. GTCR received a stake of about 15% when Global Payments bought Worldpay, which GTCR part-owned, in January. No price has been reported.
• Senate bets rose. Contracts on Democratic control of the Senate ended Friday near 71 cents on both Polymarket and Kalshi, up 3 to 4 points on the day, four days before the midterms. Kalshi printed a single 50,000-contract buy at 71 cents. No single event lined up with the move.
• Regeneron's beat had a scheduled tailwind. Regeneron (REGN) rose 13% after non-GAAP earnings of $20.07 a share topped forecasts by more than 20%. Part of the jump reflects a step-up the company noted in its release: Sanofi finished repaying a development balance at the end of the second quarter.

October Paid for Cash and Sold Forecasts.

Friday rewarded money already earned and punished quarters still to come. Exxon set next year's buyback off a quarter of surging refining cash. Intel and the PC chain fell on a quarter that hasn't happened yet.

Crypto gets the next test. Binance has promised a full proof of reserves by Monday. If it lands and bitcoin holds near $77,000, Friday's crypto selling was about forecasts, not solvency.