In a normal week, a hot PPI pushes yields up. 

Today, the opposite happened. Core final demand rose 0.8% month over month. 

That is firm. The 10-year still slipped under 4% and closed near 3.99%.

That is the first thing to understand. The bond market ignored inflation and bought duration.

Equities didn’t like it.

When bonds rally on hot inflation data, they are signaling slower growth ahead. That signal landed directly on banks and credit-sensitive names.

Earlier in the week, we were debating AI demand.

Today the debate shifted to what that demand does to credit and jobs. 

That shift changed the tape.

Trade Implication:

Sub-4% yields on hot data is not relief. It is caution.

If the 10-year holds below 4% while inflation prints stay firm, duration trades extend. That does not automatically support equities. It pressures cyclicals and banks first. 

Watch whether financials stabilize on falling yields. 

If they do not, the bond market is leading and equities will adjust lower to match.

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The day wasn’t about PPI. It was about where risk showed up next.

Block announced a 40% workforce reduction. Private credit headlines worsened after Blue Owl halted redemptions in a fund. 

Alternative asset managers are down sharply year to date. Investors connected the dots fast.

When the AI narrative touches payroll and credit, it stops being a valuation debate and becomes a funding debate. That is the shift.

Weekly jobless claims ticked higher. 

Just enough to support the idea that labor is cooling. Combine that with workforce cuts in tech, and investors start thinking about loan growth and charge-offs.

This is how risk migrates. It starts in a sector. It moves to balance sheets.

Execution Bias:

AI strength at the top is tightening the system underneath.

When financials underperform while yields fall, respect the signal. 

The market is pricing tighter credit conditions ahead. Avoid leveraged balance sheet exposure until spreads stabilize.

If high-yield ETFs and bank stocks firm together, pressure eases. If they continue diverging from rates, risk repricing is still in motion.

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February had been about rotation. 

Asia outperformed. Europe outperformed. 

Copper rallied and US mega-cap tech stalled but didn’t collapse.

Today looked different.

The selling was concentrated in banks and alternative asset managers. Software remained fragile. Nvidia drifted again after its strong print earlier in the week. Dell held better but could not offset broader weakness.

Retail activity stayed active in mega-cap tech. Institutional tone shifted defensive. That combination slows sharp declines but does not create upside.

Breadth deteriorated as the S&P tested 6,800. Systematic funds pay attention to levels like that. If broken cleanly, flows can accelerate.

This did not feel like a clean sector swap. It felt like risk coming down into month end.

Execution Bias:

If the S&P loses 6,800 with banks still weak, expect volatility to expand. 

If financials firm and equal-weight stabilizes, selling pressure remains contained. 

Use relative strength in banks as the early tell. They are the pressure valve right now.

Geopolitics crept back into the picture.

A second US carrier group is moving toward the Eastern Mediterranean. Satellite images show more aircraft positioned in Saudi Arabia. Oil climbed toward $66.

At the same time, tariff policy remains unresolved. 

Section 122 is active. Section 301 investigations are pending. Refund litigation continues. Businesses are planning around uncertainty.

The bond market treated all of this as growth drag rather than inflation risk. That is key. Yields fell even with oil firm and PPI hot.

When multiple policy variables lean in the same direction, the effect compounds. Tariffs tighten margins. Credit stress tightens lending. Geopolitical tension raises input costs.

None of these alone moves the index. Together, they affect capital allocation.

Trade Implication:

Policy is feeding into growth expectations.

Monitor credit spreads and high-yield ETFs before reacting to geopolitical headlines. 

If spreads widen while oil rises, growth concern deepens. If spreads stay contained despite tension, risk appetite remains intact. 

Credit confirms whether policy risk is translating into economic risk.

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Here is the quieter structural shift.

IDC expects the largest annual decline in global smartphone shipments on record this year. 

Memory pricing is part of the reason. AI data centers are absorbing DRAM supply. Device makers are paying higher input costs.

AI investment is redistributing margin across industries. It is not lifting all boats.

When capital flows heavily into infrastructure, downstream hardware absorbs cost. That feeds back into consumer spending and earnings guidance.

This matters for positioning. Margin shifts happen before revenue shifts show up.

Edge Setup:

Supply tightness upstream creates pressure downstream.

Favor companies with secured supply and backlog visibility. Be cautious in lower-end consumer hardware where pricing power is thin. 

If memory supply normalizes, pressure eases. If it stays tight, downstream margins remain at risk. 

Track DRAM pricing trends as an early indicator.

Hot PPI did not push yields up. Yields fell. Banks cracked. Gold broke higher.

That sequence tells you where the market’s attention sits.

Earlier in the week, the focus was AI demand. Today, the focus shifted to what that demand does to credit and growth.

One path stabilizes quickly. Banks firm. Spreads hold. Yields level off. Equities regain footing.

The other path extends caution. Financials stay weak. Duration stays bid. Breadth erodes further.

The next move will show up in credit before it shows up in tech.

Watch banks and high-yield spreads at the open. 

If they stabilize, risk can reset. If they slip again, protect capital and reduce leverage.