Oil spiked at the open after Trump announced a naval blockade of Iranian ports. The S&P opened lower. Then Trump posted that 34 ships crossed the Strait yesterday. Oil pulled back. Stocks reversed. The Nasdaq extended its win streak to nine days.

Nothing resolved. The blockade is live. Iran hasn't moved. But the market priced the worst case in the morning and something less clear by the afternoon.

Housing added to the picture. Existing home sales hit a nine-month low in March. Mortgage rates peaked at their highest level of the year. The rate damage is already sitting in the economy.

The market absorbed a naval blockade and closed higher. That resilience is real. It depends on two things holding. Hot PPI with blockade intact: the rate cut is gone, energy extends, and financials lose last week's gains. Soft PPI with Hormuz traffic building: rate-sensitive names recover, airlines extend, and the truce trade gets a second leg. Tomorrow morning answers which market we're actually in.

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Goldman had a strong quarter on paper. Record equity trading revenue. Dealmaking held up. Top line beat expectations. The stock fell anyway.

Credit and rates trading came in well below what analysts expected. Down from the same period last year. Three separate banks flagged the miss immediately. The weakness landed in interest rate trading, mortgage trading, and credit, the exact areas most exposed to an oil-driven rate environment.

That read-through matters more than Goldman's stock move. JPMorgan, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo all report tomorrow. If they show the same weakness in the same areas, last week's financial sector leadership starts to crack.

Goldman's credit miss is the tell for tomorrow. If JPMorgan confirms the same weakness, the financial sector loses the foundation it built last week. Watch the credit trading lines.

The software ETF jumped nearly five percent Monday. The key level is $77. It held on heavy volume. One strategist framed it cleanly: don't stay short above that level, don't stay long below where it broke last week. That's the range this trade lives inside.

The thesis against software hasn't changed. AI is still replacing what software used to sell. What changed today is simpler. The market ran out of sellers. Oracle surged after an AI showcase. Workday, Salesforce, and Microsoft followed. Today's move was short-covering, not a fundamental shift.

This bounce is tradeable, not investable. Manage risk against Friday's low on the software ETF. A close below that level means the bounce failed.

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The blockade cuts off roughly two million barrels of daily Iranian exports. The pressure is real. The timeline is not what the market thinks.

Iran has been shipping more oil than usual during the war, building stockpiles outside the Strait. China, its biggest buyer, holds deep strategic reserves. Between Iran's pre-positioned supply and China's buffer, the blockade may take weeks or months to actually bite.

Two tankers slipped through the Strait before the blockade started. Tanker owners said they would hesitate before sending new vessels through. That same industry was moving oil through an active war zone days ago.

Iran knows the timeline. China knows it too. The oil market may be pricing a faster resolution than the physical supply chain supports.

Watch Iranian export data and whether China draws down reserves over the next two weeks. If China uses reserves instead of buying replacement barrels, the price pressure gets delayed. That changes the oil ceiling and the rate picture with it.

Revolution Medicines surged over a third after its experimental pancreatic cancer drug nearly doubled patient survival versus chemotherapy in a Phase 3 trial. Pancreatic cancer affects roughly 65,000 Americans annually with a five-year survival rate below 15%. Abraxane and gemcitabine have been the standard of care for over a decade. A drug that doubles survival in Phase 3 doesn't compete with existing treatments. It replaces them. That's the repricing the stock is pricing in

Circle and Coinbase both gained as the Senate returned with stablecoin legislation potentially heading to committee this week. The move is anticipatory, not confirmed. Regulatory clarity on stablecoins is the single biggest unlocked value driver for Circle's business. If the bill moves, the repricing has further to go.

Fastenal dropped sharply after missing earnings. It sells fasteners and supply chain products to manufacturers. When Fastenal misses, the industrial economy is softer than headline data suggests. Watch tomorrow's PPI for confirmation.

McDonald's is entering the cold beverage market with new drinks launching in May. Dutch Bros and Black Rock Coffee both fell. McDonald's has fourteen times more US locations than Dutch Bros. When McDonald's enters your category, the math changes instantly.

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Oil pulled back from its highs. Software bounced. Goldman beat and fell. The S&P briefly went green for 2026.

None of it resolves what's next. The blockade is live. Iran has runway. China has reserves. Goldman's credit miss is either a Goldman problem or a sector problem. Tomorrow's bank prints answer that.

PPI lands tomorrow morning. The market found its footing today. The ground underneath it hasn't been tested yet.