Futures point to a modestly lower open as markets continue to process Powell’s caution and the latest strikes on oil infrastructure. The overnight tone stayed defensive. Global equities remained under pressure, the dollar stayed firm, and there is still no sign of a real reset in risk appetite.

The tell is gold, not equities. Gold futures are down roughly 4.5%, while Brent crude has pushed to $114, a $17 premium over WTI. Institutions that built gold positions as a Hormuz hedge are selling them. When a safe haven sells into an accelerating risk event, the explanation is usually the same: someone needed liquidity, and gold was the most liquid thing they owned.

Market Implication

If Brent holds above $110 through the Bank of England decision, the dollar bid holds and rate-sensitive sectors remain under structural pressure. If the BoE cuts and signals more, the rate differential trade shifts.

February PPI came in hotter than expected, reinforcing that goods-side inflation was already running firm before the latest energy shock hit the data. 

The Fed held rates steady in an 11-1 vote. They raised the 2026 PCE projection to 2.7%, and added one sentence: "The implications of developments in the Middle East for the U.S. economy are uncertain." Powell gave no basis for pricing cuts before late 2026.

Mid-session, Israel struck Iran's largest gas processing facility. Iran threatened Gulf infrastructure across Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar. Brent crossed $109 by the close and has pushed to $114 overnight.

Structural Setup

Seven of nineteen FOMC participants now expect no cuts this year, one more hawk than December. If oil starts showing up clearly in the next inflation prints, the case for even limited easing gets harder to sustain, and rate-sensitive credit likely feels that pressure first.

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Selling was broad and leadership was hard to find. Energy was one of the few areas that held up as oil stayed firm, while most of the tape struggled to build any momentum after the Fed. Nvidia and other AI leaders were unable to fully separate from the broader risk-off mood, which mattered because that group had been one of the market’s most reliable sources of support.

One of the more notable tells came from gold. In a market still dealing with war risk and rising energy prices, gold did not behave like a clean safety trade. That does not automatically mean the hedge has failed, but it does suggest some investors are raising liquidity rather than simply adding protection. When that starts to happen, it usually tells you stress is moving beyond a single headline and into broader positioning.

Sector Read

The relative resilience in energy still makes sense as long as oil remains elevated and supply concerns stay live. At the same time, higher input costs and tighter financial conditions remain a tougher backdrop for the rest of the market, especially cyclicals and rate-sensitive groups. Until crude settles down, leadership is likely to stay narrow and defensive.

Central banks are being forced to react to a market that is being driven less by domestic demand and more by an external energy shock. The Fed made that clear yesterday. Powell did not sound eager to overreact, but he also gave markets very little comfort that policy can lean against this kind of inflation pressure in the near term. That leaves traders watching whether other major central banks strike a similar tone or show more willingness to look through the move in oil.

The broader policy backdrop matters because it will shape the dollar, yields, and how much breathing room risk assets get from here. If policymakers abroad sound more dovish while the Fed stays cautious, the dollar can stay firm and keep pressure on rate-sensitive areas. If they signal more confidence that the energy shock will fade, markets may try to rebuild the rate-cut narrative. For now, though, oil still looks like the cleaner macro driver than central bank nuance.

Watch Signal

The key thing to watch is whether policymakers treat higher energy prices as a temporary disruption or the start of a more durable inflation problem. If the market hears too much confidence too early, that stance could get challenged quickly by the next move in crude. If officials stay cautious, the message is straightforward: policy is on hold, and markets are left to trade the oil tape.

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Micron beat revenue by $3.8 billion. It guided Q3 to $33.5 billion, a record for any memory company, at 81% gross margins. It raised its dividend 30% and confirmed HBM remains sold out through 2026. The stock fell 4.7% in premarket.

That is not a reversal. It is a signal that the near-term HBM trade is fully owned. Micron entered the print up 62% year-to-date. The earnings confirmed the thesis. The position had nowhere to add.

The downstream read matters more. Dell told analysts DRAM has risen 5.5x in six months. IDC cut its PC forecast 11.3% because consumer devices cannot absorb the pass-through. The AI buildout is concentrating margin at the memory layer. Micron's 81% gross margin exists because every hyperscaler building an AI cluster has no alternative HBM supplier at scale.

The Read

If Micron can maintain this posture over the next few quarters, it reinforces the idea that the AI hardware buildout still has real duration behind it, not just momentum. That would continue to support the equipment and memory ecosystem even if the broader tape stays messy.

Economic Data: Initial Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, New Home Sales, Wholesale Inventories

Earnings: FedEx (FDX), Darden Restaurants (DRI)

Overnight: Nikkei -3.38% | Shanghai -1.39% | FTSE -2.00% | DAX -2.46%

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Gold is down sharply from its war high, and it sold off hardest on the same day Brent pushed to a new peak. That suggests some investors were raising cash rather than adding protection. The real question now is what actually holds up if equities stay under pressure and traditional hedges stop behaving cleanly.

FedEx reports tonight. Its fuel surcharge commentary should offer an early read on whether large logistics operators are passing higher energy costs through or absorbing them into margins. If they absorb them, pressure starts building on industrial margins. If they pass them through, the inflation ripple moves further into the real economy.

Two forks matter today. One shows what the market owns. The other shows what the Fed can still control.