The S&P gained over 3% this week. Seven straight winning sessions. 

Then the University of Michigan dropped an April consumer sentiment reading of 47.6. The lowest number in the survey's entire history.

CPI came in hot for March. Gasoline drove most of the monthly gain. Core held below expectations for now. Energy hasn't fully bled through yet. The question is whether that holds if oil stays near $100 through May.

Trump warned Iran on Truth Social to stop charging tanker fees. Iran hasn't confirmed it will show up to Islamabad on Saturday. JD Vance arrives anyway. The Strait is still restricted. No jet fuel tanker has cleared it since the ceasefire was announced.

Equities priced a short war for seven sessions. Consumers are pricing something longer. That gap gets tested Monday when the first Islamabad headlines hit. Size down going into the weekend.

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47.6 is not a bad number. It is the worst number the University of Michigan has ever recorded. Every income bracket. Every demographic. All moved lower in April. One-year inflation expectations jumped to 4.8%. The market is not at the 2025 panic peak yet. It is moving in that direction fast.

The gap between how consumers feel and how stocks are performing is now the widest since the 2022 inflation shock. Last time this divergence got this wide, stocks were the ones that closed it. Not sentiment. Sentiment was right.

Companies reporting over the next three weeks will guide against a backdrop where consumers have already priced a recession. The stock market hasn't made that call yet.

Watch how bank CEOs frame the consumer outlook starting Monday. Sentiment this weak historically comes before guide-downs in discretionary, restaurants, and travel. If the language turns cautious, the rally loses its most important support.

The software ETF is down over a quarter this year and fell again Friday. ServiceNow dropped sharply after a downgrade. Cloudflare, Snowflake, CrowdStrike, and Palo Alto all sold off. These are not oil-sensitive names. They are repricing on a completely different problem.

The problem is simple. AI is eating the revenue case for traditional software. Tasks that required expensive software subscriptions six months ago are being handled by AI tools at a fraction of the cost. When the geopolitical fear came off this week, investors went back to selling software. The ceasefire didn't fix that. It just unpaused it.

Meanwhile semiconductors had their best week since late 2022. Nvidia extended its longest winning streak since 2023. TSMC reported record revenue. CoreWeave added a deal with Anthropic on top of its Meta arrangement. The gap between hardware winners and software losers got wider and louder this week.

Software making new lows while semis hit records is the warning signal several strategists named as the condition that could reverse the rally. That warning just triggered. Watch both going into Monday.

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A.M. Best warned Friday that annuity reserves at major insurance companies have quietly moved into lower-quality private credit assets, often held at overseas affiliates with limited visibility. Ares, Aon, and Willis Towers Watson all sold off sharply on the session. This is not one company's problem.

Here is how it works. Private equity firms spent five years buying into the annuity market by offering better rates backed by higher-yielding private credit. Those same private credit assets are now seeing rising redemption requests and loan quality concerns. The capital that was supposed to be stable is sitting in assets that are not.

This was invisible two weeks ago. It is on the tape now. Q1 earnings from major insurers will include hard questions on this. The answers set the range for the next leg of financial sector risk.

Watch for private credit disclosures in Q1 insurance earnings. The first insurer to quantify its exposure moves the whole group. This one accelerates fast once it starts.

Trump posted a Truth Social endorsement of Palantir naming its warfighting capabilities and including the ticker. The stock fell on the day anyway. A presidential post is not a thesis.

Jet fuel prices remain near crisis levels despite the ceasefire. No jet fuel tanker has cleared the Strait since the deal was announced. Airfares jumped nearly 15% year over year in March. That cost does not reverse when the ceasefire holds. It reverses when the barrels actually move.

Kevin Warsh's Senate confirmation hearing for Fed chair has been delayed. Financial disclosures have not been received. The Fed meets April 28 with no confirmed chair nominee and the hottest CPI print in two years sitting on the table.

Saudi Arabia confirmed drone strikes cut its production capacity by hundreds of thousands of barrels per day. Kuwait reported intercepted drone attacks. The ceasefire is two weeks old. The infrastructure damage is not pausing with it.

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The Nasdaq exited correction territory Friday. The Dow turned positive for 2026. Consumer sentiment hit the worst reading in recorded history on the same afternoon.

Consumers are pricing a war that is still running through their gas bills and grocery receipts. Core CPI held this month. It will not hold if oil stays here through May. Software is making new lows. Private credit risk just found a new address in insurance. Bank earnings start Monday.

The rally was real. The ceiling is also real. Everything that matters now happens in a room in Pakistan that may not even have a full delegation when it opens.