Stocks Rose Into Fed Week. Volatility Stayed Elevated.

The S&P 500 rose 0.7% on Monday and the Nasdaq 0.8%. The VIX eased to about 18.4, still above its 50-day average of about 16.

The Fed opens its two-day meeting today. A Wednesday hike trades near 7 cents on Kalshi. Kalshi and Polymarket priced December near 75 cents on Monday.

Brazil's stocks had their worst day since 2020. Its Treasury bought back about R$14.8 billion of bonds that day. Long-term rate futures still rose more than 2.5 points.

Market Implication

Wednesday's vote is nearly settled in the prices, but December is not. That leaves the statement's December guidance as the main lever. An elevated VIX in a rising tape fits investors hedging that guidance. If December survives intact, that hedge has little left to price.

Celestica Put a Number on 2027. Its Cash Forecast Went the Other Way.

Celestica (CLS) grew quarterly revenue 83%, above the top of its range.

Celestica expects $40 billion of revenue next year. That is about 90% above this year's raised forecast. Shares fell 5.2% before the release. They were quoted about 15% higher.

One forecast went down. Free cash flow is now seen at $460 million, from $600 million. The company is funding working capital for 2027. The outlook rests on customers keeping their data-center plans.

Cadence (CDNS) booked a record $8.2 billion backlog. Amkor (AMKR), which packages chips, guided roughly flat.

Structural Setup

Celestica moved the AI hardware debate from demand to working capital. Doubling revenue means buying parts before customers pay. That is why the cash forecast fell as the revenue forecast rose. A premarket jump this size prices next year's budgets as much as this quarter. If data-center plans pause, that inventory would sit on Celestica's books.

The Tape Graded the Source of Earnings

Whirlpool (WHR) now expects an adjusted full-year loss of about $1.30 a share. It had guided to an adjusted profit of $2.50 to $3.00. Its cash target depends on a large fourth-quarter inflow. Shares were quoted about 7% lower.

HSBC (HSBC) posted a 32% profit jump. Most came from last year's legal costs not recurring. Revenue missed its own compiled estimates. Shares were down about 6.5% in London trading.

Crypto money was just as choosy. Spot bitcoin funds took in about $110 million on Monday, fund-flow data show. All of it went to BlackRock's fund. Ether funds lost about $89 million.

Ripple said its trust bank won final OCC approval to hold its stablecoin's reserves. XRP barely moved.

Sector Read

Buyers are paying for where earnings come from, not their size. A profit jump built on a vanished cost, and a cash target resting on one quarter, both got sold. Crypto flows show the same narrowing, with one bitcoin fund taking all of Monday's inflow. That rewards single-name selection over broad exposure.

The Ceasefire Bet Rallied. A Fire Hit Near Ras Tanura.

Saudi Arabia contained a fire near Ras Tanura, a report citing a person familiar said. It followed an attack in the region. Ras Tanura is its biggest oil export terminal. No one had confirmed responsibility. Brent eased to about $114.70, still near six-month highs.

Prediction markets priced calm. Polymarket's Oct. 31 ceasefire contract rose to about 93 cents from 86.5. It climbed gradually after Monday's talks in Tehran. They ended with no concrete announcement. Fewer days left for a strike likely explain part of the rise.

The Nov. 15 contract trades near 55 cents. That prices roughly a 45% chance of a qualifying U.S. strike by then. The biggest step comes between Oct. 31 and Nov. 8, across the Nov. 3 midterms. President Trump said on Oct. 8 that the U.S. would not attack before them.

Watch Signal

The ceasefire ladder prices a U.S. strike on Iran. Brent is exposed to attacks on Gulf export sites. Those are separate risks, so ceasefire odds can rise with Brent near its highs. If the Nov. 15 contract stays near a coin flip, strike risk was deferred, not removed.

The Chip Sellers Are Funding the Chip Buyers

Meta (META) priced $25 billion of common stock at $625. It added $12.5 billion of convertible preferred. The common sells through forward contracts. Meta can collect that cash as late as November 2027.

One buyer will be a supplier. Nvidia (NVDA) said it will invest $3 billion. Meta buys Nvidia's hardware.

A new vehicle will buy Broadcom (AVGO) chips to lease to Anthropic. It has $63 billion of committed financing. Bank of America (BAC), Citi (C) and Morgan Stanley (MS) are arranging senior debt. Blackstone (BX) is the sole committed second-lien lender. Broadcom is providing residual value support equal to the senior portion, the companies said. Deliveries are expected to start in 2027.

The Read

Headline AI spending counts what buyers commit, not who carries the risk. In both deals, the seller now sits on the buyer's side of the ledger. That ties supplier earnings to customer funding more tightly than order books show. If a big buyer's funding stalls, its suppliers feel it in sales and in their own commitments.

Economic Data: Durable goods, home prices, consumer confidence and new home sales. Treasury sells $70 billion of five-year notes and buys back up to $6 billion of long bonds.

Earnings: Reported before the open: Coca-Cola (KO), UPS (UPS) and PayPal (PYPL). Also due: Boeing (BA). After the close: Visa (V) and Robinhood (HOOD). Wednesday: Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL).

Overnight: Kospi +3.09% | Nikkei +1.73% | Shanghai -1.33% | FTSE -0.72% | DAX +0.28%

This morning's AI news shares one feature.

The cash is moving further out.

Celestica is spending now for 2027 revenue. Meta can wait until 2027 to collect. Broadcom's chips for Anthropic are expected to ship from 2027.

All three rest on big buyers keeping their budgets. Microsoft and Alphabet report Wednesday, hours after the Fed. Their spending plans will show whether Celestica's premarket jump priced demand or hope.