In a normal relief rally, the dollar strengthens. Today it dropped. Equities priced a clean exit. The dollar priced something messier. Iran struck a Saudi pipeline hours after the ceasefire. The Strait is still thin on traffic. Wall Street had a name for this trade: TACO. The rally ran on that thesis.

Friday's Islamabad talks are where it gets tested. Until then, the relief trade and the unresolved reality are running side by side.

Trade Implication: 

A dollar falling into a relief rally means the market isn't fully convinced. Don't chase without a hedge on Friday stalling. The thesis needs confirmation, not just a headline.

That’s the power of getting in early on the right startup. We believe RAD Intel could be next. 

RAD Intel applies AI to solve a massive marketing problem: reaching the right audience with the right message. Selected by Adobe Design Fund, backed by multiple Fidelity funds, and already used by Fortune 1000 brands, its valuation has soared 5,000%+ in just four years*.

Built for AI 2.0, RAD Intel has reserved Nasdaq ticker $RADI and is offering shares at just $0.91.

Don’t let this be another “I wish I had…” moment. The opportunity is now!

Lock in $0.91 shares today.

This is a paid advertisement for RAD Intel made pursuant to Regulation A+ offering and involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. The valuation is set by the Company and there is currently no public market for the Company's Common Stock. Nasdaq ticker “RADI” has been reserved by RAD Intel and any potential listing is subject to future regulatory approval and market conditions. Brand references reflect factual platform use, not endorsement. Investor references reflect factual individual or institutional participation and do not imply endorsement or sponsorship by the referenced companies. Please read the offering circular and related risks at invest.radintel.ai

Delta Air Lines (DAL) posted a $289 million net loss. Fuel costs rose $330 million year over year. That's the war on a balance sheet.

Here's why it still matters even with the ceasefire. Delta guided for a $2 billion fuel cost jump in Q2 and still projected $1 billion in pretax profit. That's possible because Delta owns Monroe Energy, a refinery that converts part of its fuel cost into margin. Every competitor without that absorbs the full hit.

The Q2 EPS guide of $1 to $1.50 missed the $1.56 consensus. That's why Delta lagged while United (UAL) surged 9.3%. But that guide was built on April 2 fuel prices. Crude has since fallen 16%. The miss is already stale.

Execution Bias: 

The refinery advantage is structural. It doesn't go away with a ceasefire. If crude stays lower, Delta's gap above unhedged competitors only widens. The guidance miss is a buying question, not a selling answer.

The Fed Minutes from March landed today with a hawkish warning. Many officials said a prolonged war "could call for rate increases." Upside inflation risks had grown. Rate hikes were explicitly on the table.

Then markets moved the opposite way. Rate cut odds jumped to 43% from 14% overnight. Citigroup called for three cuts starting September.

Why does this gap matter? The Fed was meeting in a world where oil was above $110 and the supply shock looked open-ended. Markets are now pricing a world where crude is below $100 and the war is wrapping up. Thursday's PCE and Friday's CPI describe the world the Fed was actually living in.

If those prints run hot, the Minutes become the operative signal and the rate cut pricing reverses fast.

Execution Bias: 

Rate-sensitive names caught a big bid today. That trade holds only if PCE and CPI come in clean. Hot data flips the narrative back to the Fed's hawkish language. Size accordingly going into Thursday.

I had to share this today.

A strange new “wonder material” just shattered two world records — and the company behind it is suddenly partnering with some of the biggest names in tech.

We’re talking Samsung, LG, Lenovo, Dell, Xiaomi… and Nvidia.

Nvidia is already racing to deploy this technology inside its new AI super-factories.

Why the urgency?

Because this breakthrough could become critical to the next phase of AI. And if any tiny stock has the potential to repeat Nvidia’s 35,600% climb, this might be it.

See the full story here.

Meta Platforms (META) surged 7% after unveiling Muse Spark, its first closed AI model from Meta Superintelligence Labs.

Closed-source is the whole story. Meta built its name on open AI that anyone could use for free. Muse Spark is proprietary. That one shift moves Meta from being adjacent to the enterprise AI race into being directly inside it. For the first time, Meta is competing for the same paying customers as Anthropic, Google (GOOGL), and OpenAI.

The benchmark result matters less than what it signals. Meta is willing to compete on capability now, not just openness. With $14.3 billion invested in Scale AI and a rebuilt team behind this, the resources are real.

Edge Setup: 

Muse Spark is a capability signal, not a revenue signal yet. Watch the next earnings call for enterprise or API traction. That's when the benchmark either becomes a business or stays a press release.

Carnival (CCL) surged nearly 11% to lead the S&P 500. Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH) and Royal Caribbean (RCL) gained. Cruise stocks got dragged down for weeks by war headlines despite having limited direct fuel exposure. Today the market separated real war damage from collateral damage. Five weeks of mistaken selling unwound in one session.

LyondellBasell (LYB) fell enough to make it the biggest S&P loser. Dow Inc (DOW), CF Industries (CF), and APA (APA) each dropped. These names had a war premium baked in. Oil falling 16% removes it instantly. No ceasefire tailwind here. Just margin compression.

Intel (INTC) surged nearly 11% as the most actively traded stock on the exchange. The Terafab announcement with SpaceX and Tesla landed one day before a broad chip rally. Intel captured both catalysts at once. Nvidia (NVDA) added only 1.9%, still digesting the contract edge Broadcom locked in Tuesday.

Some stocks are built for a quarter… others for a lifetime.

Our 7 Stocks to Buy and Hold Forever report reveals companies with the strength to deliver year after year - through recessions, rate hikes, and even the next crash.

One is a tech leader with a 15% payout ratio - leaving decades of room for dividend growth. 

Another is a utility that’s paid every quarter for 96 years straight. 

And that’s not all - we’ve included 5 more companies that treat payouts as high priority.

These are the stocks that anchor portfolios and keep paying.

This is your chance to see all 7 names and tickers - from a consumer staples powerhouse with 20 years of outperformance to a healthcare leader with 61 years of payout hikes. 

The report is free for a limited time - go here to get it now.

The market picked its answer today. The data weighs in Thursday and Friday.

Stocks surged. The dollar fell. The Fed warned of hikes and markets priced cuts. None of it resolved. It was deferred.

Iran still controls Strait access. A pipeline got struck hours after the ceasefire. Friday's Islamabad talks are the first real test of whether this holds.

Thursday's PCE and Friday's CPI land into a market priced for the war being over. Both prints describe the world where it wasn't. That gap closes in 48 hours.