The Nikkei jumped sharply overnight. South Korea's Kospi triggered a circuit breaker on the way up. Oil crashed below the triple-digit mark for the first time in weeks after Trump agreed to suspend attacks on Iran for two weeks. WTI posted its steepest single-day drop since 1991.

Everything moved on one trade: ceasefire duration compression. Equities rallied. Bonds rallied. Gold rallied. The dollar fell. This is the unwind of a war premium that had been building for five weeks straight.

The VIX is still elevated. That tells you the market bought the headline but hasn't bought the resolution. 

Market Implication

Risk assets are repricing for a shorter conflict. They haven't repriced for a resolved one. If the Strait fully reopens and tanker traffic normalizes this week, the rally extends. If Iran coordinates passage selectively, the premium rebuilds fast. Two weeks is a window. It isn't peace.

Pakistan brokered a two-week pause. Trump agreed to suspend bombing. Iran agreed to allow safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz under coordination with its armed forces. Israel endorsed the pause for Iran but disputes that Lebanon is covered.

That last detail matters. "Safe passage via coordination with Iran's armed forces" is not the same as an open waterway. It means Iran still controls the chokepoint. Every tanker that transits does so because Iran allows it. The physical bottleneck didn't disappear. The shooting stopped.

The inflation pipeline is already loaded. February PCE lands tomorrow. March CPI lands Friday. Both reflect the damage from the sharpest monthly oil surge in history. Even if crude stays below pre-ceasefire levels, the inflation prints are baked. The Fed is watching data that describes a world the ceasefire just changed.

Structural Setup

The front end of the crude curve collapsed. The back end held. That spread tells you the market believes this is temporary relief, not structural rebalancing. If Islamabad talks on Friday produce a framework for permanent reopening, the entire curve reprices. If they stall, front-month crude snaps back above triple digits within days.

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The S&P barely moved. Apple (AAPL) dropped sharply on reports of foldable iPhone delays. Broadcom (AVGO) rallied on a long-term TPU supply deal with Alphabet. UnitedHealth (UNH) surged on a Medicare Advantage rate surprise that far exceeded expectations.

The overnight move resets everything. Energy names that led for five weeks will reverse hard at the open. Airlines, industrials, and consumer discretionary will catch the bid. Semiconductors will rally on the risk-on rotation back into growth.

The tell is breadth. If the rally is narrow and futures-driven, it fades. If small caps lead and the Russell outperforms, the market believes the ceasefire holds.

Sector Read

Integrated energy names built a war premium that is now unwinding. Exxon (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) face a different tape today than they did yesterday. The question isn't whether they give back gains. It's how much. Watch EOG Resources (EOG), already down sharply in the pre-market, for where the pain concentrates among pure upstream producers.

Vance leads the U.S. delegation. Iran's 10-point proposal includes demands Washington won't accept: full sanctions relief, troop withdrawal, war damages. The gap is enormous. Two weeks isn't much time to close it.

The Fed is boxed. The ceasefire changes what oil does next. It does not change what the data says about what oil already did. The market will have to reconcile a relief rally with an inflation problem that was locked in before the shooting stopped.

Watch Signal

Watch tanker traffic through the Strait over the next 48 hours. Iran said passage requires coordination with its armed forces. If major tanker operators begin transiting immediately, the market's optimism is justified. If operators wait for clearer terms, the physical supply picture hasn't changed and the oil bounce comes fast.

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The company raised its revenue forecast in March on strong demand. Bookings hit records. Premium revenue kept growing. None of that is the story.

The story is fuel. Jet fuel tracks heating oil, which tracks crude. Delta burned through Q1 with WTI averaging its highest quarterly level in years. That cost hit lands in the quarter they're about to print. The ceasefire changes the forward outlook. It doesn't change the backward-looking P&L.

Management's guidance call is what matters. If they reaffirm full-year targets with crude now sharply lower, the stock reprices higher. If they pull guidance citing the two-week window, the relief trade in airlines stalls before it starts.

The Read

Delta is the first airline to report into a ceasefire that didn't exist when Q1 ended. The quarter will show fuel cost damage. The call will reveal whether management is pricing a sustained de-escalation or hedging against a two-week mirage. That distinction sets the tone for every transport name reporting after it.

Economic Data: FOMC Minutes

Fed Speakers: Daly  

Earnings: Delta Air Lines (DAL), Constellation Brands (STZ) 

Overnight: Nikkei +5.39%, Shanghai Composite +2.69%, FTSE +2.44%, DAX +4.53%

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The ceasefire gives the market a two-week window. It doesn't give it an answer. Iran controls the Strait under the terms of this deal. Every barrel that moves through Hormuz does so because Iran allows it. That's leverage, not peace.

Friday brings two events that don't usually share a calendar. Islamabad talks begin. March CPI prints. One tells you whether the war is ending. The other tells you what it already cost. The market can't trade both outcomes at once. It's going to have to pick.