The Dow Held. The Nasdaq Didn't.Futures split wider into October's last session. Nasdaq-100 futures fell 2.4% early Friday. S&P 500 futures lost 1.1%, and Dow futures were flat. The 10-year yield closed Thursday at 4.99%, down 5.6 basis points. It was near 4.92% early Friday. Brent's January contract gained about 1% to near $112. Kalshi's December hike contract slid from 77 cents to 71 by Thursday night. Market Implication Crude up with yields down is a month-old pattern now, not this morning’s news. Bonds have rallied through every oil spike since Oct. 1, which says the market is pricing growth risk rather than inflation. December hike pricing eased with them, from about 85% Thursday to 75% currently. Stocks agree, with the selling heaviest where AI exposure is highest. A hot employment cost index today would take that cushion away and push December back up. WHAT ACTUALLY MOVED MARKETS Intel Beat Its Own Guide, Then Guided LowerIntel (INTC) beat its own third-quarter guidance. Revenue rose 21% to $16.5 billion. Adjusted earnings of 52 cents a share topped the 40 cents expected. Intel sees fourth-quarter revenue of $15 billion to $16 billion. Analysts expected about $17.1 billion. Its adjusted earnings guide of 25 cents compares with 43 cents expected. The stock was indicated about 25% lower. Data center and AI sales grew 78% to $7.3 billion. The PC unit, still the larger business, shrank 5% to $8.1 billion. Finance chief David Zinsner sees PC weakness lasting at least through the first half of next year. The guide also absorbs about $300 million from a halt at Intel's Israel plant. Amazon (AMZN) was indicated about 7% lower. Its operating margin hit a record 13.9%. Free cash flow over the past 12 months was negative $42.4 billion, against about $220 billion of planned capital spending. Nothing in the operating business explains the drop. The capital bill does. Structural Setup Intel reported an AI quarter and guided a PC quarter. Data center sales ride hyperscaler budgets, while PCs ride upgrade cycles. Management sees the larger PC side staying weak into 2027. A beat built on AI demand bought nothing once that outlook turned. If Intel holds most of the loss today, it is being priced as a PC company with an AI option. Chipmakers Fell With Intel. Reddit Blamed AI Search.Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) was indicated about 8% lower alongside Intel. Micron (MU) fell 5% and Nvidia (NVDA) 3%. Sandisk (SNDK) beat, guided revenue above forecasts and announced an 8-for-1 split. It was still indicated 8% lower. Reddit (RDDT) guided revenue below forecasts and was indicated 22% lower. Management blamed falling referrals from AI search at Google, owned by Alphabet (GOOGL). Roblox (RBLX) guided bookings below forecasts and was down about 17%. Twilio (TWLO) also fell 17%. It raised its full-year outlook, but the low end of its earnings guide missed. Private money paid up. Cohere closed the first tranche of a round of up to C$7 billion. Fully raised, it would value the company at C$35.7 billion. Schwarz Group led, with Ottawa investing alongside Nvidia. Sector Read The selling now reaches both ends of the AI trade. Chipmakers live on hyperscaler budgets. Reddit lives on search clicks that, by its management's account, AI answers no longer send. That second risk hits revenue directly and is harder to hedge. Cohere shows the bid for AI survives where prices aren't set daily. 
Why Most Accounts Blow Up in One TradeIt's rarely a slow bleed. It's usually one trade that was too big, held too long, hoping it would come back. My Safe Trade Options Formula gives you 5 checks to run before that trade ever happens. Normally $29.97. Free through this link. Protect your account. Ceasefire Bets Dropped 28 Points, Then RecoveredPolymarket's U.S.-Iran ceasefire contract for Oct. 31 fell to 68 cents Thursday evening. It had started near 96 cents and was back near 92 by morning. At the low, traders implied about a one-in-three chance of a U.S. strike by Saturday. The Wall Street Journal had reported a strike briefing for President Trump by the top U.S. commander in the region. Tehran has Vice President JD Vance's letter and has not answered. Oil moved the other way. Brent's expiring December contract rose about 1% to near $116. Watch Signal A strike briefing should lift strike risk at every date. Instead the Oct. 31 contract gave back most of its 28-point drop while the later dates moved less, so traders priced the report as timing rather than a decision. Oil did not recover, because it also carries the tanker attacks and mine claims near Hormuz, which no letter resolves. If the Oct. 31 contract expires near par while January Brent holds $110, oil is pricing supply, not a strike. Binance Froze Half. The Other Half Is the Risk.Binance estimated a breach's impact at about $6.3 billion. By reported figures, that is the largest crypto theft on record. About $3 billion has been frozen on-chain. Tether and Circle (CRCL) froze roughly $2.4 billion of stablecoins. Binance says it will cover all losses and expects to restart withdrawals within 48 hours. Analytics firms TRM Labs and Chainalysis linked the attack to a North Korean group. Binance itself has not named an attacker. Bitcoin had already dipped below $80,000 on Wednesday night, after Alphabet's report. It was back near $80,700 on Thursday afternoon. It then slid as Amazon and Intel reported and the breach surfaced. It touched about $76,300 late Thursday. Strategy (MSTR) was indicated about 7% lower. It held about 848,500 bitcoin as of Oct. 25. Their average cost is near $75,450. Coinbase (COIN) was indicated 5% lower. The Read Most of the frozen half is stablecoins, which issuers can switch off. Much of the rest is bitcoin and ether that would have to be sold to be cashed out. That makes this a supply story as much as a safety story. Bitcoin sits less than 3% above Strategy's average cost. More selling would push the biggest corporate holder toward a paper loss. Elon's audacious plan to double U.S. energy, without building a single new power plant… People think he's crazy. But Adam O'Dell says he's already deployed 4,000 units of his solution across 14 states — and used them to power the largest supercomputer on the planet. With Microsoft, Amazon, Google and Facebook set to spend $680 billion this year on AI data centers that can't get enough power to run, Elon's solution is about to be in extraordinary demand. Go here now to see how he's going to do it — and get one of Adam's top picks to play it absolutely free. Economic Data: Third-quarter employment cost index, before the open. Chicago PMI. Fed Speakers: San Francisco Fed's Mary Daly and St. Louis Fed's Alberto Musalem. Earnings: Exxon Mobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX) and AbbVie (ABBV), before the open. Overnight: Kospi -3.48% | Nikkei -2.12% | Shanghai -1.44% | FTSE +0.11% | DAX -0.74% October Ends With Bonds Bid and AI SoldFriday's tape is selling AI from three sides: Amazon, the chipmakers and Reddit. Bonds rallied while oil kept climbing. The employment cost index is the cleanest test. A cool print leaves the bond rally cushioning the selloff. If yields jump on a hot one while the Nasdaq is still falling, the selloff stops being only about AI. Rates Just Reset. Who Feels It First?On January 2, the 10-year Treasury yielded 4.19%. By September 30, it was 5.29%. Most of that move landed in a single quarter.
The bond market repriced and companies are starting to report it. Some companies earn from higher rates. Some pay for them. And each one runs on a different clock. We traced three of them, IBKR, WRB and FIS, in a new FREE Special Report:
Rates Just Reset. Who Feels It First? Who earns it fast. Who earns it slowly. Who pays. One has already reported. The other two report next, and the report tells you the exact line to check. We'll text the report straight to your phone. Get the Free Report by Text → |
|
