Nasdaq futures are higher. The semiconductor ETF (SMH) is up more than 1% before the open, led by ASML jumping after its blowout quarter. SK Hynix's Korean shares surged more than 9% overnight, recovering from Monday's crash. Alibaba (BABA) ADRs jumped premarket on the Apple intelligence news.

WTI is back above $79. The US conducted another wave of strikes on Iran overnight, targeting missile facilities and naval assets near Hormuz in a seven-hour operation. The 10-year yield ticked higher. Gold fell. 

Safe-haven assets are selling off while chips rally. The market is running two contradictory trades simultaneously.

China's Q2 GDP came in at 4.3%, its weakest since 2022 and below the 4.5% forecast. That number matters for the global demand picture heading into hyperscaler earnings.

ASML's record order book is the strongest single validation of the AI hardware cycle this earnings season. The Iran escalation is the specific risk that keeps the rally from running cleanly. Both are true at the same time. Own the hardware, watch the oil.

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ASML (ASML) raised its full-year sales forecast for the second time this year. It now expects US$49.2–51.5 billion in revenue (previously US$41.1–45.7 billion). Gross margin guidance increased to 54–56% from 51–53%. Orders came in at approximately US$10.6 billion, ahead of the US$10.1 billion expected. 

ASML makes the machines that make every advanced chip on earth. Its order book is the most honest forward indicator for the semiconductor cycle. Raising guidance twice in one year means its customers, TSMC, Samsung, Intel, SK Hynix, keep accelerating their capacity buildout rather than pausing it.

Intel (INTC) and Lam Research (LRCX) are each up more than 2% premarket on the back of ASML's print. Applied Materials (AMAT) is among the biggest premarket gainers. The chip equipment cycle is being validated from the top down.

Two consecutive guidance raises from ASML confirms what Goldman's AI capex super cycle framing implied yesterday. The buildout is not peaking. It is accelerating.

ASML's order book above €9 billion for two consecutive quarters is the specific number that removes the plateau concern. Watch TSMC earnings Thursday. If TSMC confirms accelerating orders, the chip equipment thesis has its second validation in 48 hours.

Alibaba (BABA) ADRs rose more than 4% premarket after Chinese state media reported Apple will integrate Alibaba's Qwen AI model into Apple Intelligence in China. This is Apple's first confirmed AI partnership with a Chinese company.

The significance is specific. Apple has more than 50 million iPhone users in China. Every one of them running Apple Intelligence will be running Alibaba's Qwen underneath it. That is distribution at a scale no Chinese AI company has ever accessed through a Western consumer device.

Alibaba's AI business has been the most underpriced part of a stock that is already down significantly from its peak. Qwen is a genuinely competitive model. Apple choosing it over Baidu (BIDU) or a domestic alternative is a product quality signal, not just a political one.

Richemont surged more than 6% in Europe after reporting 20% sales growth, nearly double the 11% consensus. Cartier, Van Cleef, and Buccellati all grew more than 24%. LVMH (LVMHF) and Hermes (HESAY) rose in sympathy. The luxury consumer is not dead. It is buying jewelry while skipping handbags.

Alibaba's Apple deal is the China AI story with actual distribution behind it. Luxury's Richemont beat confirms the premium consumer is still spending selectively. Both tell you the same thing: quality and distribution win. Everything else is a commodity.

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The Trump administration moved the UAE to the same technology export tier as South Korea and European allies. G42, the UAE's main AI company controlled by the national security adviser's brother, can now buy Nvidia chips freely for at least nine months. Microsoft and OpenAI data center plans in the country get fast-tracked.

The UAE flew dozens of sorties against Iran during the war and intercepted hundreds of missiles. It kept Hormuz accessible during the conflict. The chip access is the explicit reward.

This is the first time wartime military support has been formally exchanged for AI chip access at the institutional level. The template is now set. Any Gulf ally that wants Nvidia chips at scale needs to demonstrate security alignment and, per the UAE model, begin redomiciling its AI vehicle toward US ownership.

Saudi Arabia is watching. India is watching. Every country in the AI development tier below China is now calculating what military cooperation buys them in chip access.

Watch whether Saudi Arabia announces a similar redomiciling plan for its AI vehicle within 90 days. That confirmation names the UAE deal as a repeatable template. Silence names it as a one-time war dividend. Either outcome shapes how OpenAI and Anthropic approach their fall IPO data center partnerships.

US companies have sold $344.7 billion in new shares so far this year per Dealogic. That exceeds the full-year totals for 2022, 2023, 2024, and 2025 combined. SpaceX's $75 billion IPO, Alphabet's $85 billion equity raise, SK Hynix's $26 billion ADR, and Amazon's $85 billion in equity sales are the biggest contributors. Anthropic and OpenAI are still in the queue.

Hyperscalers are on track to spend more than $800 billion in capex this year, up from $450 billion last year. They are funding it by issuing stock and debt at a pace that has no recent historical parallel. Oracle now has negative free cash flow. The companies that spent years buying back shares are now selling them.

Rob Arnott of Research Affiliates flagged it directly: equity issuance surges in the late stages of a bull market. The S&P 500 dividend yield just hit its lowest level on record. John Lloyd at Janus Henderson: pre-AI these companies were extraordinary cash businesses with little debt focused on buybacks. That has completely changed.

The $344.7 billion figure is the specific number that names where the AI capital cycle is putting pressure on equity markets. Five months remain in 2026 with Anthropic and OpenAI still to file. If combined AI IPO issuance hits $500 billion by year end, the supply-demand equation for the entire index shifts in a way passive investors have not modeled.

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Economic Data: PPI June before open | Empire State Manufacturing | EIA Petroleum Status | Fed Beige Book 

Fed: Warsh Senate Banking Committee this afternoon | Cook and Williams speaking today 

Earnings before open: Morgan Stanley (MS), BlackRock (BLK), Johnson and Johnson (JNJ), PNC Financial (PNC), Bank of New York Mellon (BK), Cintas (CTAS) 

Earnings after close: United Airlines (UAL) 

Overnight: Nikkei +1.49%, Shanghai Composite -0.29%, FTSE -0.08%, DAX -0.55%

WTI is back above $79. Iran strikes continued overnight. The war premium is not leaving.

TSMC reports tomorrow. Netflix reports tomorrow. Retail sales land tomorrow. Every thesis from this week either gets confirmed or it gets complicated. The hardware cycle needs TSMC to say the same thing ASML just said. Position before that print.