The S&P closed at a fresh record. The Nasdaq posted its strongest run in over two decades. Futures are ticking higher again this morning. Asia followed overnight. The Nikkei surged. Shanghai gained modestly.

This is a market that has decided the war is ending. WTI has fallen more than twenty dollars from its peak. The ten-year yield is steady near recent lows. The dollar is drifting. Every asset class has moved as if the deal is done.

The problem is that nothing has been resolved. The Strait of Hormuz is still closed. The first round of talks in Islamabad failed. A Pakistani delegation landed in Tehran yesterday carrying a new proposal. No second round has been scheduled. The ceasefire expires April 21.

Market Implication

The VIX is in the teens with Hormuz still closed and a ceasefire deadline five days out. The market is betting on a deal with no protection against failure. If that bet shifts, vol reprices before anything else moves.

The first is peace odds rising. The US and Iran are weighing a two-week ceasefire extension to keep talks alive. Markets took that as a green light. Oil dropped. Risk assets rallied. The whole cross-asset complex shifted toward peace pricing.

The second is AI spending proving durable through earnings. Microsoft (MSFT) led the Dow's gainers on an Azure AI push. Salesforce (CRM) and ServiceNow (NOW) followed. The Nasdaq's record streak isn't just momentum. It's earnings backing up the story across the software stack.

These two forces feed each other. Peace brings oil down. Lower oil eases the inflation outlook. That gives the Fed room. Rate bets lift growth names. The loop is strong. The break point is WTI. If crude turns above $95, the rates picture changes before equities feel it. Watch oil before you watch the index.

Structural Setup

The growth-over-value trade holds as long as oil falls. If WTI turns higher, the rates picture changes. Tech feels it first.

The chip complex told the sharper story. The SOX closed at a record after its largest eight-day rally since 2002. But ASML sold off inside that rally. China's share of ASML's system sales fell from more than a third last quarter to under a fifth. The demand for AI tooling is there. The question is who gets access.

Robinhood (HOOD) surged after the SEC scrapped the pattern day trader rule earlier this week. Retail brokers rallied across the board. The minimum equity threshold for intraday trading is gone. Robinhood and Webull capture the most direct benefit. Retail re-entry into intraday trading at record index levels with a ceasefire deadline five days out is fuel added late in a move. It accelerates both directions.

The Dow finished slightly lower. Small caps barely moved. Leadership remains concentrated in large-cap growth.

Sector Read

Semis are rallying on AI demand but selling on China exposure. Names with diversified geographic revenue hold up. Names with outsized China dependency get repriced even on strong prints. ASML yesterday was the proof.

Pakistan's army chief landed in Tehran yesterday with a fresh message from the US. The first round of talks broke down on two points: opening the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's nuclear program. Neither is solved.

Talks made progress on Tuesday. But US officials warned that a deal isn't locked in. The gap is still wide. And an extension is not a deal. Hormuz stays closed during an extension. The war premium in energy doesn't fully unwind until ships move again. The CPI already jumped to its highest level in nearly two years. That damage is in the data. It doesn't reverse on a headline.

Watch Signal

April 21 is the date. WTI below $95 into the weekend means the market still believes in an extension. Above $100 means it doesn't. VIX below 16 with no protection owned is where the unwind is fastest. Watch both before Friday's close.

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Equities trading hit a record. Fixed income jumped nearly thirty percent. The engine was energy trading that fed off the war's chaos.

Wall Street's desks are printing their best numbers in years. The war built the setup they thrive in. Wide spreads. Wild energy curves. Clients hedging risks they've never faced before.

Bank of America (BAC) told the same story. Profit jumped. Trading surged. The banks aren't just getting through the war. They're making money from it.

The question is what happens when things calm down. Peace kills trading revenue. More fighting brings credit risk. The banks sit in a sweet spot where upside from chaos beats downside from stress. That window won't stay open.

The Read

Bank earnings have a clock on them. Peace kills the spreads they're making money on. More war brings the credit losses they haven't set aside for. Record quarters built on war don't repeat in peace.

Economic Data: Initial Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, Industrial Production (March)

Fed Speakers: Williams, Miran

Earnings: PepsiCo (PEP), Abbott (ABT), Charles Schwab (SCHW), Bank of New York Mellon (BK), US Bancorp (USB), Travelers (TRV) before open | Netflix (NFLX) after close

Overnight: Nikkei +2.38% | Shanghai Composite +0.74% | FTSE +0.06% | DAX +0.11%

But one little-known statistic suggests the entire sector could be on the verge of a massive collapse.

Warren Buffett once called it “the best single measure of valuations.”

Today, that indicator is flashing far above where it stood before the Dot-Com crash.

If this signal proves right, many AI favorites could fall hard.

See the warning sign and what investors should consider doing now.

Netflix (NFLX) reports after the bell tonight. But the earnings that matter most already landed. ASML proved AI demand is real. Morgan Stanley proved the war is profitable. Both stocks moved on what the numbers said about the world, not the numbers themselves.

Five days until the ceasefire extends or expires. Equities are at records. Oil is down more than twenty dollars from its peak. The whole market leans one way.

If it arrives, fine. If it doesn't, there's no hedge. Vol is flat. Credit spreads are tight. Nobody owns protection.

Netflix tonight tells us whether consumer spending is holding through the energy shock. April 21 tells us whether the energy shock is ending. One of those questions matters more.