The Dow hit a new all-time intraday high today. 

Five stocks drove nearly all of it: Caterpillar (CAT), Goldman Sachs (GS), UnitedHealth (UNH), Sherwin-Williams (SHW), and JPMorgan (JPM). Not one is a tech company.

The Nasdaq fell on the same day. Apple (AAPL) dropped 6%. Microsoft (MSFT) fell 3.5%. SpaceX (SPCX) fell another 1%, now near $153, down from its $225 highs.

This is the third consecutive session where the Dow and Nasdaq moved in opposite directions. Capital is rotating from AI capex and debt-funded growth into names that generate cash from real economy demand today. When the five biggest contributors to an all-time Dow high include zero tech names, the market is telling you exactly what it wants to own.

The rotation is not a one-day trade anymore. Earnings today over AI revenue in 2028. Own the real economy. Reduce the capex story until spending proves out in revenue.

Cisco was once the MOST valuable company on Earth. Then it fell 80% - and investors waited 25 YEARS just to break even.

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Apple (AAPL) raised prices on MacBooks and iPads, citing surging memory and storage chip costs. Microsoft (MSFT) raised Xbox prices by $100 to $150, saying the economics no longer work at current chip prices. Two of the largest consumer hardware companies in the world just passed the AI chip shortage directly to their customers.

This is what a supply constraint looks like when it moves downstream. Hyperscalers have been paying premium prices for high-bandwidth memory and signing multi-year contracts locking up supply. This is the third wave of inflation. Energy was first. Tariffs were second. AI chip demand is the third. 

Unlike the first two, this one does not resolve when the Strait reopens or a trade deal gets signed. A durable supply-side inflation source makes the Fed's looking-through-the-data approach harder to sustain past one or two more prints. If chip-driven consumer prices keep showing up in PCE through the summer, Williams' patience becomes the September hike's argument.

Apple falling 6% on a price hike is the market punishing the company for absorbing costs that its own AI spending helped create. Micron (MU) gained 16% on the same day. That contrast says everything about where value is in this supply chain right now.

Own the supply side of the memory constraint. Micron, SanDisk (SNDK), and SK Hynix all benefit from AI capex commitments that extend years out. The demand is locked in. The supply is not.

May PCE came in at 4.1% year over year, highest since April 2023. Core PCE hit 3.4%, highest since October 2023. Both matched estimates exactly.

NY Fed President Williams spoke after the print and said monetary policy is well positioned to restore inflation to 2%. He expects inflation to edge down in coming quarters. He did not signal urgency.

The Fed chose to look through May's data. The logic holds up. May PCE reflects an oil world that no longer exists. WTI was well above $70 during the measurement window. It has since fallen to near prewar levels. The energy component driving the print is already reversing in June data that will not publish for weeks.

Williams speaking calmly after a 4.1% print is the most important moment of the week for rate-sensitive names. Duration got a green light. Homebuilders, utilities, and REITs have air now. The ten-year yield eased after the data. That move extends if June PCE prints lower on falling oil, which is roughly six weeks away.

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Wednesday was the highest tanker traffic day through Hormuz since the conflict began. Kpler counted 70 transits. The prewar average was 130 per day. Progress was real and measurable.

Then Iran's Revolutionary Guard attacked a Singapore-flagged cargo ship in the Strait. WTI bounced back above $71, gaining 2.2% in a single session.

The nuclear inspection dispute is still unresolved. The White House says Iran agreed to full IAEA inspections. Iran denied it. Two governments contradicting each other on the central condition of the deal, while the IRGC attacks a ship on the busiest transit day yet, is not a deal holding cleanly.

WTI bouncing 2.2% on a single attack, on the same day transit traffic was at its post-war high, shows how thin the peace premium is. The risk is asymmetric. One escalation brings WTI back above $80 within 48 hours. Stay flat on energy rather than short.

Strategy (MSTR) extended its seven-day decline since the 2022 crypto winter. Bitcoin fell below $60,000. Strategy's preferred stock hit a record low, breaking below par value. That breaks the funding mechanism the company uses to buy more bitcoin. It is now selling common stock to cover dividends, which dilutes existing shareholders. The bitcoin accumulation model is structurally impaired right now.

Anthropic accused Alibaba (BABA) of the largest known AI distillation attack on Anthropic to date. Distillation is training a weaker model on outputs from a stronger one, essentially copying capabilities without paying for them. Alibaba shares fell. This is the opening shot of an AI intellectual property war that will eventually require regulatory action.

JPMorgan (JPM) named two co-presidents as succession candidates for Jamie Dimon, each receiving $30 million retention bonuses. Dimon turned 70 this year. JPMorgan hit an all-time high on the same day. Institutional capital wants clarity on who runs the largest US bank. Now it has it. That clarity arriving while banks lead the spend-or-earn rotation is structural validation. The names doing the most for the Dow's record were JPMorgan and Goldman. The bank trade is no longer just a rate story. It is a leadership story too.

A powerful new form of AI could upend personal investing and usher in one of the biggest wealth transfers in history. If you know what's coming, you could double your portfolio over the next two years. If you don't, you'll soon become "the equivalent of a man still using a fax machine to communicate." Man who called the 2025 crash airs full warning (and a free recommendation) here.

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PCE printed hot and Williams looked through it. That call is the most consequential thing that happened today. If he is right that May was the peak, the rate-hike trade softens into July and duration recovers. If the IRGC attack was the first of several, oil bounces back toward $80 and June data catches up to May.

Two questions carry into next week. Does Hormuz stay open despite the attack. Does Williams' patience hold if June data comes in hot. Both answers arrive before the next Fed meeting.