The Dow and the Nasdaq Swapped Places

The Dow rose 0.4% and the Nasdaq-100 fell 1.4%. In October, the Dow gained 1.5% while the Nasdaq lost 5.3%.

Early Tuesday, Dow futures fell 0.8% and Nasdaq-100 futures rose 0.3%. Apple (AAPL), in both indexes, was indicated about 4% lower. AMD (AMD) and Micron (MU) fell 7.5% and 5.8% Monday. Both were indicated higher.

Korea's Kospi fell 3.6%, led by chipmakers. Australia's central bank raised its rate to 4.85% on a 6-3 vote. The Australian dollar fell 0.3%.

Oracle (ORCL) priced its $20 billion raise late Monday. Shares went at $116, against Monday’s $119.10 close. Its $10 billion of notes carry 7% to 8.65% coupons, 2.4 to 3.35 points over Treasuries. That is about where its five-year default swaps traded on Oct. 15, at a record 288.

Market Implication

A few giants are setting index direction, not broad appetite for risk. A chip rebound is lifting Nasdaq-100 futures despite Apple's drop. That makes any single index a weak read on the wider tape. If the chip rebound fades after the open, the Nasdaq-100 loses its support.

Both Beat. The Next Number Did the Damage.

Apple's revenue rose 12% to $114.5 billion. Gross margin was 47.9%. About a point came from tariff refunds Apple says it has mostly collected.

Apple guided December-quarter gross margin to 45% to 46%. It said higher memory costs explain most of the expected drop. Services growth was guided to 8% to 9%, below the 10.7% expected. iPad and China sales also missed estimates. Intel's weak outlook last week also came as memory costs hit PC demand. SK hynix said last week it is sold out of memory through 2029, with demand for its AI chips at twice what it can supply.

Palantir (PLTR) grew revenue 96% to $2.31 billion. It raised its 2026 forecast. U.S. commercial revenue passed government revenue for the first time.

The value of deals signed rose only 6% from a year earlier. U.S. commercial revenue rose 29% from the prior quarter. Remaining U.S. commercial deal value rose just 4%. The stock was indicated 8% lower.

Structural Setup

Both reports looked better backward than forward. Apple’s pressure is cost, since memory prices feed straight into gross margin, and the memory makers have said they are sold out. Palantir's is the pipeline, since revenue can outgrow new contracts only for a while. Both stocks appeared to trade on the outlook, not the quarter.

One Fund Was the Whole Outflow

U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs lost a net $399 million Monday, fund-tracker data show. BlackRock's fund (IBIT) lost $405 million, its most since June. Fidelity's fund (FBTC) took in about $7 million.

With Friday's $643 million, about $1.04 billion left in two sessions. That is roughly double the $516 million lost in all of October.

Coinbase (COIN) fell 4% Monday and touched a 52-week low.

Sector Read

When one fund's redemptions top the category's net outflow, the selling is concentrated. That points to a few large holders leaving one product, not a broad retreat from crypto. If outflows spread beyond IBIT this week, it becomes a category exit.

The Strike Settled the Bets. Oil Rose 2%.

The Wall Street Journal, citing U.S. officials, reported a U.S. strike on Iran's Qeshm Island on Monday. It called the strike the latest in a recent series. Some officials described it as defensive.

On Monday afternoon, Polymarket priced the ceasefire lasting through Nov. 8 at 77.5 cents. It slipped before the report, then fell to 16.5 cents within minutes of it. That contract and a Nov. 15 one now show closed at "No."

The Oct. 31 contract had expired near 99 cents without formally resolving. Now disputed, it traded near 88 cents early Tuesday. The dispute appears to turn on whether earlier strikes count.

Oil rose about 2%, after falling more than 7% Monday.

Watch Signal

The two markets answer different questions. The Nov. 8 contract also slipped before the strike was reported, which is what the Pentagon’s Oct. 20 memo anticipated when it barred Defense staff from trading these venues on nonpublic information. A ceasefire contract settles “No” once a qualifying U.S. strike hits Iranian territory. Oil trades on supply, and a limited strike removes no barrels by itself. If the Oct. 31 contract also settles “No,” its buyers paid for a broken ceasefire.

A 59% Premium From a Bidder That Won't Sell

LS Power holds about 56% of EVgo's (EVGO) voting power. It proposed $2.00 a share in cash for the rest. LS Power puts that 59% over the Oct. 30 close. The bid is non-binding.

LS Power says it won't sell its stake or join any other takeover. It won't proceed without a special committee's recommendation, and EVgo has formed one. Its planned merger structure keeps appraisal rights. The letter does not mention a vote of minority holders.

The stock rose to $1.26 by Oct. 30 from $1.02 a week earlier. The bid is 6% above the July 1 close and 51% below the 52-week high. EVgo jumped 46.8% Monday to $1.85. That is still 7.5% below the bid.

The Read

The premium is real, but its base sits well below summer prices. A controller that won't sell removes any auction, so the committee's lever is price. The 7.5% gap prices a bid that can still change or vanish. If a final deal adds a minority vote, those holders gain a veto.

Economic Data: September JOLTS and factory orders. Midterm results come after the close. Treasury's refunding is Wednesday. October jobs are Friday.

Earnings: Before the open: Pfizer (PFE), Shopify (SHOP), Apollo (APO), Eaton (ETN) and ADM (ADM). After the close: AMD (AMD), Arista (ANET), Super Micro (SMCI), Amgen (AMGN) and Booking (BKNG).

Overnight: Kospi -3.6% | Taiex -3.6% | Shanghai -0.8% | FTSE -0.6% | DAX -0.3%

Two strong quarters were marked down on what comes next.

Apple expects memory costs to squeeze its margin, and Palantir's revenue is outgrowing its new contracts.

The test is the open. If Micron holds its gain while Apple stays down, memory pricing power is being treated as durable. AMD reports tonight, the next read on chip demand as memory costs squeeze its customers.