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Jan 23, 2026
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12 min read
Calm held on the surface. Markets priced constraint, discretion, and physical scarcity as live variables again.
10 min read
Equities are steady, but policy is widening the range of outcomes. TikTok gets structured into a U.S. container while war powers, alliance trust, and energy risk stay live.
Jan 22, 2026
Relief stabilized the tape. Credibility stayed expensive. Access replaced ownership as the compromise.
The Greenland fight cooled, but the damage is real. Europe learned tariffs can be weaponized. ICE is testing the Fourth Amendment. Ukraine is being sold as “one last issue” before anyone sees the terms.
Jan 21, 2026
11 min read
Relief found footing. Structure stayed intact. Credibility kept its premium.
Risk is still holding. But Europe is starting to price America as a counterparty, Russia is cheering the fracture, and the Fed is being pulled into the same credibility trade.
